Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

The PHE weekly surveillance report showed accelerating growth,
higher in the younger age groups, but progressively spreading to older ages - which would significantly increase hospital admissions

@alreadytaken

something else that affects numbers in hospital - all admissions now get 5 days of remdesivir and because it is given via an iv you have to be in hospital for 5 days. Although not a lot of patients would make it out faster than that some did, even at the peak. Admissions now will increase bed use rather more than at peak epidemic where you wanted them out as soon as they looked better because someone else was needing their bed.

That's really interesting

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]"Some data-viz on case reporting delays,
In 2 weeks we've gone from 60% of test results coming in 2 days to about 10%. "
mobile.twitter.com/chrisdrakeuk/status/1305944185258807296[/quote]
Interesting. I have family who had tests at a walk-in centre on Sunday morning so I'll report back when results are in. They were warned that results would be delayed due to massive demand.

Those figures seem to show there are an accelerating number of cases amongst school age children, no?

Would the accelerating numbers in school age children not be because more are getting tested? If they’d had a temp a few weeks ago, they might not have bothered but now schools are insisting on tests for symptoms - that’ll massively push up infection rates even if they’ve not risen right?

@twolittleboysonetiredmum

Would the accelerating numbers in school age children not be because more are getting tested? If they’d had a temp a few weeks ago, they might not have bothered but now schools are insisting on tests for symptoms - that’ll massively push up infection rates even if they’ve not risen right?

Yes now a negative test is a way back into school more will be testing.

But that would mean it was more endemic in that age group than we realised.

I think that is likely, as they’ve largely been asymptomatic or very mild symptoms.

IThe younger age groups haven't increased by as much as the older age groups, it's just increasing from a low base so the percentages look higher. The infection numbers for their parents' typical age groups has gone up by 15/ 10/ 10/ 9 and children by 2/ 3/ 4; that still indicates lower rate of infection.

Has something weird happened to the UK case numbers at coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom ?

As of today - which is showing 3,105 UK cases - the numbers for the last few days are:
14/9 - 117
13/9 - 335
12/9 - 1685
11/9 - 2473

Was it showing these wacky numbers yesterday or 13/9? I don't think I looked directly?

Cases by 'date reported' rather than specimen date are more as expected, in the 3000s.

Hang on, is it always this way round due to lag in getting the results? Maybe I've just missed it previously by ignoring the last couple of days tiny little bar on the chart?

@Quarantino

Has something weird happened to the UK case numbers at coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom ?

As of today - which is showing 3,105 UK cases - the numbers for the last few days are:
14/9 - 117
13/9 - 335
12/9 - 1685
11/9 - 2473

Was it showing these wacky numbers yesterday or 13/9? I don't think I looked directly?

Are you looking at cases by specimen data rather than date reported

But that would mean it was more endemic in that age group than we realised

Which in turns would mean it’s likely to be more endemic in their parents’ age group too!

cross post, yes they've always reported both. Specimen date figures will increase over coming days as results come in

Littlebelina yes I think I figured that as I was posting - doh!

Risk
Excellent table from Spiegelhalter of risk from COVID and increased overall risk of death, during the earlier 16 peak weeks:

I don't find that a useful table. I'm much more interested in my chance of dying IF I get it, not my chance of having died of it over a set period of time in the past.

Since I know the probability of my having died of Covid over that specific period is actually O.

Great chart, thanks BCF. Can you explain the last column, 'equivalent days of normal risk' - I feel like I get the gist but can't articulate it (blame the stuffy head cold I seem to just be getting...)

Please accept I know this is anecdotal. But I've been speaking to an infection control nurse this evening.
This virus is not good. It's still very novel and it's believed its mutating rapidly. There seems to be people who are exposed continuously and never catch it. Some who have tested positive twice but are t showing symptoms past first infection and therefore could be silent spreaders.

Talk of and preparation for peak in October but also next February.

Highest risk right now is people's behaviour. But by the time it gets serious and people change behaviour it's too late - hence why struggling to get under control in NE.

Cases are much higher than currently recorded because of testing issues.

And even areas like my town that have weeks of no cases are seeing doubling every week currently and that's just the ones we know
of.

Herd immunity cannot be an aim because it's like trying to get herd immunity for flu where they strain changes every year.

Scary conversation and I wish all the nay sayers would wake up and smell coffee of the realistic situation.

@Nellodee

I don't find that a useful table. I'm much more interested in my chance of dying IF I get it, not my chance of having died of it over a set period of time in the past.

.... It is a guide to what happens if you DO get it which could happen any time to any of us

Treatment may have improved chances for the most serious cases to some extent, maybe 20-40%

However, main thing is he again shows the overwhelming importance of AGE
Risk doubles every 5-6 years
Every other factor fades away, e.g. T1 increases risk x 3, but that is only equivalent to just a few years onlder

itsgettingweird this contradicts what other health professionals are saying. Like the Dr from Birmingham (QE I think) that said it was the same virus as before and there were not any significant variations.

I think sometimes people embellish the situation.

We need to fear this virus and adapt our behaviour. I do agree that the biggest risk is that people are not going to do that.

But I do think this person is scaremongering.

@Quarantino

Great chart, thanks BCF. Can you explain the last column, 'equivalent days of normal risk' - I feel like I get the gist but can't articulate it (blame the stuffy head cold I seem to just be getting...)

... (Personally, I am never keen on that paricular metric he often includes, as it is more difficult to understand ! I prefer to look at the % risk)

What the table shows, is that the risk of death, if not currently infected, was equivalent to experiencing some extra days of normal risk.
That amounted to around 5 weeks extra ‘normal’ risk for those aged 55+, but only 2 extra days for school-children

I like the way he has expressed it before:
that catching COVID roughly doubles your normal risk of dying that year,
a bit less if you are under 55, a bit more if you are 55+

@Nellodee

Since I know the probability of my having died of Covid over that specific period is actually O.

.... If you want the risk if you do catch it, regardless of your chance of so doing, then his earlier charts are useful

The circles explain the additional risk if you catch COVID
Hence the rough estimate of about doubling your annual risk of death

Note there is a difference from March to July, as treatments improved and also possible effects of higher Vit D and lower amounts of viral load

.