Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

Numbers look a bit more stable with increased testing (less in Scotland, NS will be angry); with gaps in test availability we can't know if this is really stable or not yet.
3105 cases / 27 deaths.
England hospital figures jumped 200 in 2 days without admissions jumping much, is that in-hospital spread?

Zoe app went up from 4.6k yesterday to 5.3k today. That makes a lot more sense, reassuringly so. Also good to see their quite detailed map of spread. covid.joinzoe.com/data

I don't understand the 100,000 tests a day for care homes. I do some work in a care home, I'm retired really, and we haven't had a test since June. Why are some homes getting weekly tests for staff and we've had precisely one?

England hospital figures jumped 200 in 2 days without admissions jumping much, is that in-hospital spread?

Isn't it also people tested after admission for other things - ie you go in for a car accident, but are then tested as per routine precautions, you don't count as an admission, but do count as "in hospital"?

Although that sounds rather high if it's that, not enough people would be being admitted for other things and then discovering it with the current estimated prevalence unless a lot more people are admitted than I thought?

@ancientgran

I don't understand the 100,000 tests a day for care homes. I do some work in a care home, I'm retired really, and we haven't had a test since June. Why are some homes getting weekly tests for staff and we've had precisely one?

It was supposed to start in July I think, started, problems with a big batch of tests, stopped, then was starting properly 7 sept. Maybe not everyone got them yet then.

Well we haven't and we registered for it. I don't see how it is 100,000 tests a day when they aren't even doing all homes and residents will only be once every 28 days

@MRex

Numbers look a bit more stable with increased testing (less in Scotland, NS will be angry); with gaps in test availability we can't know if this is really stable or not yet. 3105 cases / 27 deaths. England hospital figures jumped 200 in 2 days without admissions jumping much, is that in-hospital spread?

I think we need to be a bit cautious with the numbers - if tests are taking longer to come back then surely there's a backlog in results vs tests being sent out data?

Anecdotally hospitals also have problems with testing delays. So you can be admitted with Covid symptoms - sounds like a Covid cough, high temperature, low oxygen but until the test results come back you are not officially a Covid-19 case, although you'll be in a side ward if they have one.

And a lack of tests for staff so possible in hospital transmission and staff off sick again because they cant get themselves or their children tested.

I have been following this thread since the start and have been so grateful to get some expert analysis free (mostly) from the hype, soundbites and hysteria which seems to prevail elsewhere. My friend's husband works as a consultant surgeon in our local major hospital (not covid related) and he has always been of the view that what really matters is not the number of positive tests but the number of patients in hospital/intensive care. So I am now really troubled by the latest figures. 866 in hospital in England today up from 430 on 28 August . Doubled in 2 weeks after consistently falling every week before that. Similar story on ventilation beds, up from 52 to 101. Are there any possible reasons (changes in methods of counting/admission criteria/etc) which could account for this? Otherwise it really is very concerning. Sorry if this has been covered before.

This article contains the current DfE response to "How many schools are closed or partially closed due to Covid currently?"

schoolsweek.co.uk/its-official-dfe-doesnt-know-how-many-schools-have-covid-cases/amp/?fbclid=IwAR1vNAIKV2mabtvlBpiHu1FLKwdKlhrySaHeFDQhyFbOP7QcRzrrk2UNDnI

I was just going to post that! I thought RTB might not want to read it!!

Thats amazing. Being asked how many schools have been closed or partially, if pretty important and the best the DfE can come up with is "Dunno"? Its like a surly teenager that really can't be arsed!

It does make the point I was trying to make rather spectactularly though!

This was my favourite bit :

Following a search of our paper and electronic records I can confirm that the department doesn’t not [sic] hold this information.”

Following a search of our paper and electronic records I can confirm that the department doesn’t not [sic] hold this information.”

Brillant. Grammar errors in the 'dog ate my homework' excuse.

@serialgrannie

Unfortunately I think it would be very surprising if the quadrupling in confirmed cases since the start of August hadn’t resulted in a rise in hospitalisations.

Unless they genuinely don't not hold it...

Has it been asked as a question on teachertapp?

something else that affects numbers in hospital - all admissions now get 5 days of remdesivir and because it is given via an iv you have to be in hospital for 5 days. Although not a lot of patients would make it out faster than that some did, even at the peak. Admissions now will increase bed use rather more than at peak epidemic where you wanted them out as soon as they looked better because someone else was needing their bed.

I think I remember Tameside mentioned previously re deaths?

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/15/tameside-hospital-fights-uks-first-fatal-outbreak-of-hospital-acquired-covid

hopefully lessons can be learned quickly.

Yes Andy Burnham was going on about that a few days ago but didnt mention the hospital concerned but the Manchester Evening News said they understood it to be Tameside. 6 days ago.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/mayor-warns-significant-rise-greater-18906775

Its getting frustrating how we are seeing such delays in the press picking up some of these stories tbh.

@Timeforanotherusername

hopefully lessons can be learned quickly.

Cross post.

I have my doubts.

Not yet cherry.

I mentioned Tameside in the previous thread. Not great is it.

"Some data-viz on case reporting delays,
In 2 weeks we've gone from 60% of test results coming in 2 days to about 10%. "
mobile.twitter.com/chrisdrakeuk/status/1305944185258807296