Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Young children do transmit coronavirus. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937e3.htm?s_cid=mm6937e3_w

[quote alreadytaken]Young children do transmit coronavirus. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937e3.htm?s_cid=mm6937e3_w[/quote]
This is based on 12 children?

I am not saying they don't transmit but I would expect a reasonable sample size.

Also it is children > 10. I wouldn't class them as young children.

What on earth is going on with the moonshot?!

Why aren’t public health decisions, going through a robust, wide group of public health experts? Sorry just exasperated...

The study that @alreadytaken links to is about young children (under 10s) It just stats off by mentioning that it's already established (by other studies) that over 10s transmit it, and that the value of this study is showing that under 10s can do so too. The small number means we know nothing about how common this is, but that's not the point of the study. The study is simply showing that there is evidence that young children can transmit it. There is not zero risk to parents from children being in school or childcare.

@Firefliess a good theory. I think I read that more young men were shrugging it off and not getting tests (or isolating.)

@walksen I had thought because they're more likely to be a carer or in carer jobs. Also potentially if children are asymptomatic but do pass on.

Women were more likely to catch ebola than men. The reason was largely presumed to be their greater role as carers for sick family members. There have been several articles and research papers about the reasons behind the gender disparity. I wonder if the same explanations may extend to COVID 19.

It's pretty difficult to work out the route of transmission of Covid, therefore there are only likely to be small studies. The emphasis below is mine.

"Twelve children acquired COVID-19 in child care facilities. Transmission was documented from these children to at least 12 (26%) of 46 nonfacility contacts (confirmed or probable cases). One parent was hospitalized. Transmission was observed from two of three children with confirmed, asymptomatic COVID-19. "

The new York vs Madrid comparison is interesting. Will be keeping an eye on what happens when they open indoor restaurants, this appears to be around the same time they are allowing children back into schools though (scientist in me wishes places would do one thing at a time)

Just read comment up thread that Belgium reduced gatherings to 5.

Why didn’t they make this point in the presser , to explain how this could put us on the same curve?

The comms of this govt is terrible!

@tootyfruitypickle

Just read comment up thread that Belgium reduced gatherings to 5.

Why didn’t they make this point in the presser , to explain how this could put us on the same curve?

The comms of this govt is terrible!

Agree. It was mentioned in passing during a news programme and I just happened to catch it and remembered someone here had asked how Belgium did it.

My first thought was why haven't they made a bigger thing of this? Evidence is that it works and therefore it could work and is likely to work for us.

@alreadytaken

It's pretty difficult to work out the route of transmission of Covid, therefore there are only likely to be small studies. The emphasis below is mine.

"Twelve children acquired COVID-19 in child care facilities. Transmission was documented from these children to at least 12 (26%) of 46 nonfacility contacts (confirmed or probable cases). One parent was hospitalized. Transmission was observed from two of three children with confirmed, asymptomatic COVID-19. "

The additional issue is that we do know that children are more likely to be asymptomatic.

And some asymptomatic people are infectious.

So we would only know how often children are passing it on with regular spit tests.

Neurotrash i think they are studying that in Bristol.

4000 students and 1000 staff.

It was on BBC last night.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/education-54116927

Does anyone have the link for cases per local parish in each town? I have seen it before somewhere on here but can’t find it now as it was some weeks ago. Thanks in advance if you do.

@tootyfruitypickle

Just read comment up thread that Belgium reduced gatherings to 5.

Why didn’t they make this point in the presser , to explain how this could put us on the same curve?

The comms of this govt is terrible!

Maybe the govt doesn't want to be seen to be taking advice or guidance from Belgium / the EU at the moment for political reasons?

@NHT32

Does anyone have the link for cases per local parish in each town? I have seen it before somewhere on here but can’t find it now as it was some weeks ago. Thanks in advance if you do.

Is this what you mean?

www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc811/msoamap/index.html

BCF
I have heard (secondary source online article) about a study done by the Charité in Berlin among employees of the DB. They tested for past C infections and found low incidents in general and the lowest among traveling personel and highest among maintenance / workshop crew with almost contact to the public.
Do you know about this? If true it goes against expectations (well, mine anyway).

@NHT32 - the map of weekly cases is here and updates daily (it runs 4 days behind due to lag time to log cases), but it only shows areas with 3 or more cases: phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076.

If you want to get a daily summary for your borough (it can give you an idea if there are zero or many 1-2 case areas), the easiest way is to get set up with @littleowl1's covid messenger: www.covidmessenger.com/.

@IceCreamSummer20

What on earth is going on with the moonshot?!

Why aren’t public health decisions, going through a robust, wide group of public health experts? Sorry just exasperated...

Because it's a PR stunt. Nobody has any intention of doing anything like it, but they need distractions form:

• rising case numbers
• testing fuckup
• putting it into law to be breaking -intentionally- international law.

Throw in the plastic bone and let the plebs chew on it.

It works :(

It would be dodgy to say the rule is based on Belgium for several reasons:

1. For over a week, Belgium's case numbers have been tilting up again; if that continues or gets worse there will be pressure to abandon the rule without trying, even if it is having the same positive effect it initially had in Belgium.
2. Belgium had the highest death rates first time round, too easy for shouts of "why are we following them when they've done so badly?"
3. Lengthy pointless debate about why 6 not 5.

I saw that, it will be helpful time.

Is there any news on saliva tests generally? We could really do with those in sen schools, and schools in general.

On another thread a secondary teacher said that some of her students with obvious symptoms weren't getting tests as they'd heard it hurt.

It can be impossible to administer normal medication with some of our Sen pupils (mostly asd) let alone a swab year.

What on earth is going on with the moonshot?!

Why aren’t public health decisions, going through a robust, wide group of public health experts?

There is a SAGE sub-group (TMFS - Task and Finish Group on Mass Screening) that is analysing potential mass testing strategies. Here is the latest document they have published so far:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/914931/s0712-tfms-consensus-statement-sage.pdf

The members of the group seem to agree that the mass testing strategy is complicated, requires careful planning and resources and can only be used in conjunction with other methods (e.g. routine Test & Trace). In other words, it does indeed sound like a "moonshot". However, it is not completely dead on arrival since SAGE members seem to be still considering it seriously.

[quote Timeforanotherusername]www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/education-54116927[/quote]
As Bristol Public Health emailed healthcare providers on Thursday saying that there was no testing available locally, fingers crossed that this gets off the ground.

Thanks all