Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Hmmm having had a google it seems we had 207 known cases on the 13th March which was the last day we ventured out of the house prior to lockdown being lifted. And now we have 3539 yesterday. Since that date in March I have been in the shielding category which makes me even more anxious about it all. Obviously much more is known now and we have done measures in place to reduce spread but I don't see how most things being open is sustainable.

@Bercows

Is there a chart/graph/whatever around that compares where we were this time in March with confirmed cases and deaths and now? I took my dc out of school a week before schools closed because I didn't thinking was safe for them to be in and I was also unwell (similar to now).

... I would compare weekly hospitalisation and deaths now & then, because cases then were massively undercounted due to low testing, (you would need to multiple peak cases by an unknown high number, maybe 30, to get a number to compare with today)

Of course there is a lag of several days going from infections to hospital and a further week or so to deaths,
but cases are just not comparable to March-April

Thank you BCF.

221 new Covid cases in Scotland.
2.8% of tests positive.

wheresmymojo
That page saying the service is very busy, I'm not sure if it's a lack of tests. It could be a shite govt website issue. I had that last night and stayed on the same page and refreshed a few times, to the be offered several testing centres, including my nearest one, with over 350 available slots.

For balance, of the new cases in Scotland, it’s clear that the big issue is in Glasgow and the west. 106 cases in Glasgow and 48 in Lanarkshire.

In contrast, there are many areas with very few cases- 5 in Fife, 1 in Forth Valley, 5 in Grampian, 4 in Highland, 4 in Tayside.

The increase in cases is not feeding through to hospital cases- which have remained stable over the last few weeks and are lower than they were in July and August.

There are not enough cases in hospital to even give a figure in most health board areas for patient confidentiality reasons.

University of Oxford resumes vaccine trial:
covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/trial-resumes

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]University of Oxford resumes vaccine trial:
covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/trial-resumes[/quote]
Didn’t read it but great.

Literally just said this to DH. Just taken our DC back to the care home. So worried it's going to be like March again when we couldn't see DC until June...

Oh gosh I remember @monkeytennis97 .... so so hard. Maybe homes will be more creative this time around about ways of maintaining contact, perhaps worth talking to senior management now, ringing disability helplines for guidance - ideas?

I have a relative with advanced dementia so am considering those issues. Not nearly as painful as your situation though

@Augustbreeze thank you 🙏

3497 cases today

At what point will the rise be classed as consistent and at what point will it be classed as a definite second wave? I only see reports using phrases such as looks like or heading into or such like. I struggle with lack of definites.

Oh dear. I'm starting to feel nervous. We really need cases to start going down, but uni is just starting...

With do many people with symptoms not able to get a test, this looks like a shitshow again.

I might be overly optimistic but realistically cases aren't going to start going down (assuming they do) for a week or so are they?

If people have started to take a bit of notice and the new measures start to have an impact it won't show up in the data for a while yet I would have thought? The rule of 6 doesn't actually kick in until Monday.

Agree it'll be a while before we see any effect of measures.

How long before local areas with restrictions saw improvements?

How long before other countries?

I thought lockdown we saw it take a week or so but we saw a frantic drop because of no mixing?

It'll be a while before we see effects, yes. Unfortunately we might start to see uni infections counter-balancing any reductions.

@itsgettingweird

Agree it'll be a while before we see any effect of measures.

How long before local areas with restrictions saw improvements?

How long before other countries?

I thought lockdown we saw it take a week or so but we saw a frantic drop because of no mixing?

I'm in Manchester, we have been in extended measures for ages now and numbers are constantly rising!

Unless something changes in schools, cases will spread there and with such mass gatherings the potential spread is enormous.

@Sunshinegirl82

I might be overly optimistic but realistically cases aren't going to start going down (assuming they do) for a week or so are they?

If people have started to take a bit of notice and the new measures start to have an impact it won't show up in the data for a while yet I would have thought? The rule of 6 doesn't actually kick in until Monday.

Yes! It will take some time. The rules don’t start until Monday anyway.

Re schools

Is there a chart that shows the trend in Scottish schools?

And then there's the people having a final hurrah this weekend including a birthday party for ds's classmate, and a family party for 25 at a restaurant (my very extended family consisting of around 6 households).
Manchester rates have indeed been going up despite extra measures. Stockport and Wigan came down but then we're released and low and behold they have gone back up and to worse than before. 100,000 students starting in Manchester then there's all the schools. I think we are looking at 2 weeks before we see any improvement IF extra measures are put back in place and how the hell they expect to control the spread once campuses are in full swing. Before we know it it will be half term and people going away again and the spread continues again. I am very pessimistic but watching the numbers it's a challenge to be positive about things. Add in being ecv with a vulnerable elderly mum and dc who are expected to move between households then I'm admittedly anxious. Numbers make me feel better. I like to keep an eye on things.

Can I ask one of the clever people on here to explain something to me, I've been puzzling about it for days but as much as more poor addled old brain puzzles I still can't figure it out.

So we are told testing capacity is 374,917 (well that is what is says on govt website) and then it tell us figures for testing 227,465 but the system is falling down, Mr Hancock telling us too many of us are booking tests. Am I misunderstanding what capacity means? I think it means they can do 374,917 tests a day so why can't they cope wiht more than 227,465. I know there are some antibody tests but would that account for the almost 150,000 missing tests they can't do?

Help!

I'd like to know that too. It makes no sense to me.