Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

I am hoping they mentioned “team sports” because you cannot play rugby or football with social distancing. Hence these activities technically require an “approved exception”.

I would be very surprised if they introduce any restrictions on swimming.

Bojo said organised sport not team sports. Hopefully the guidance will give clarity (don't laugh, I can hope)

When the question came from a member of the public regarding children having vulnerable people at home did boris say that they "should take extra precautions such as shielding or other measures?" I didn't quite catch it but no one elaborated.

Yes CW said "we're going to say more" about the Belgian line but then didn't. Guess he meant about measures which might help in general.

Why oh why, when people (represented by Robert Peston today!) are pleading for hope for Christmas, do they go all mealy-mouthed and say we can't say? They could use that as an opportunity to spell it out - "The only hope we've got of being able to socialise at Christmas is if everyone immediately starts following all the advice."

@Bercows can't remember but pretty sure shielding wasn't mentioned (sorry). Something like hand washing I expect...

Interesting discussion today in staff room where most people thought the rules were already 6 people from different households or more than 6 but limited to 2 households.

Loads of people didn't realise you could have up to 30. Me included!

I thought that was weddings etc.

Just goes to show how bad the messaging is.

But we did all agree those who had parties during film lockdown and are having them still now are unlikely to stop now either.
That this has been the issue all along.

So hopefully being law will help if it can be enforced

" by Robert Peston today!"

Shades of Alan rickman in robin hood and similarly over the top!

@Bercows - I think he said they may need to take extra precautions and mumbled stuff about with school (an admission that heads may have leeway?), and Chris Whitty said cases are still low where we don't have many school outbreaks yet, but shielding could come back if cases rise. Can't find any transcripts, but it's on iplayer if anybody has time (I have to make dinner for a toddler, sorry).

AlecTrevelyan
mass testing is coming - we'll soon have to prove that we're covid-free to go anywhere

Do you think that would be a good or bad thing? It's hard to tell just from text.

Personally I think it would be a brilliant step forward. If rapid testing was readily available those with a negative result can carry on with confidence, those with a positive can very quickly be isolated until they recover. Life would be able to be a lot more like normal.

@itsgettingweird - the guidance was always 6 from 2 households. The law was max 30; intended to allow for bigger families and to allow adjusted guidance without keep changing the law. Some people decided that was confusing, so now apparently the law needs to be updated for any guidance.

Yes that's what he said @Bercows. He was utterly incompetent at answering that question. Shielding advice was to socially distance within your own household which is pretty impractical for any parent and could entail abusive neglect for single parents of young children. And shielding was declared to have finished anyway. Boris then went on to imply that schools would contact vulnerable parents of there was an outbreak so they could take extra precautions. I'm not sure what the parents would be expected to do in such situations (as it's still compulsory to send the kids in) but there's no way either of my kids schools would do this because they have at no point ever asked us whether we're extra vulnerable, so they wouldn't know this information. I thought Boris was particularly lacking in humanity, understanding or knowing the basic facts of the situation in his response to this question and it's a shame the questioner wasn't allowed to respond.

Chris Whitty gave a somewhat better answer (that rates are still pretty low currently, which is still true currently).

@wintertravel1980

I am hoping they mentioned “team sports” because you cannot play rugby or football with social distancing. Hence these activities technically require an “approved exception”.

I would be very surprised if they introduce any restrictions on swimming.

Ah yes winter that actually makes sense with the wording. Hope you're right!

@Lindy2

*AlecTrevelyan mass testing is coming - we'll soon have to prove that we're covid-free to go anywhere*

Do you think that would be a good or bad thing? It's hard to tell just from text.

Personally I think it would be a brilliant step forward. If rapid testing was readily available those with a negative result can carry on with confidence, those with a positive can very quickly be isolated until they recover. Life would be able to be a lot more like normal.

i think it is a terrible thing

it fundamentally changes the nature of the relationship between the state and the individual

the bigger picture here is that some things are more important than life or death

the willingness of many people to be spied upon is very scary and something that I never believed I would witness

None of the guidance has changed. You’ve never been supposed to meet with more than one household indoors, or up to 6 individuals outdoors. I doubt the police will be heading round the local parks to stop people meeting friends with kids. They might trot round all the licensed premises and check they are complying, or use the powers to disperse and find large groups of youngsters drinking in the park at night.

Anyway, data - surely all these delays to tests will mean some changes to data over the next few days? A catch up day or maybe even some getting missed altogether so a dip?

@SellFridges

None of the guidance has changed. You’ve never been supposed to meet with more than one household indoors, or up to 6 individuals outdoors. I doubt the police will be heading round the local parks to stop people meeting friends with kids. They might trot round all the licensed premises and check they are complying, or use the powers to disperse and find large groups of youngsters drinking in the park at night.

That's what I thought!

Seems no one can keep up with changes as original message was unclear!

Cases seem to have stabilised but I've noticed my town in slowly creeping up by a few cases each week more. Let's hope travel hasn't set off another seeded event.

Just in the “normal by Christmas thing” I don’t think this is at all about following the rules and if we behave we can see our family again?!

Message I got was this is a necessary measure to tackle the virus until A scientific advancement That changes things comes along and they are now putting there hope into mass testing as a solution before/ instead of a vaccine? I feel the realisation is how minimal socialising has to be to control the virus which isn’t going to change without some breakthrough science rather than this was “temporary to bring the figures down” did others get a different impression?

I think he said that gyms, etc could continue to open but that groups within them would be a max of 6. This would have a huge impact in fitness classes, eg Zumba, Body Pump. Also group lessons, swimming?, yoga, etc. We really need written clarification of exactly what this means. When organised groups were a max of six previously there was a wide and varied interpretation locally

@Firefliess

Yes that's what he said *@Bercows*. He was utterly incompetent at answering that question. Shielding advice was to socially distance within your own household which is pretty impractical for any parent and could entail abusive neglect for single parents of young children. And shielding was declared to have finished anyway. Boris then went on to imply that schools would contact vulnerable parents of there was an outbreak so they could take extra precautions. I'm not sure what the parents would be expected to do in such situations (as it's still compulsory to send the kids in) but there's no way either of my kids schools would do this because they have at no point ever asked us whether we're extra vulnerable, so they wouldn't know this information. I thought Boris was particularly lacking in humanity, understanding or knowing the basic facts of the situation in his response to this question and it's a shame the questioner wasn't allowed to respond.

Chris Whitty gave a somewhat better answer (that rates are still pretty low currently, which is still true currently).

How are schools meant to know if a parent is clinically vulnerable, though? Obviously we would contact parents of vulnerable students, but we don't store data on parent health conditions as a matter of course.

I suppose parents could let schools know if they are concerned, but if parents are expecting an automatic phonecall, they are likely not to get one.

Our school sent a questionnaire out asking if there was anything parents wanted to tell them about their children's lockdown experience, any special concerns etc.

@Qasd I didn't mean he was meaning that, sorry. I just meant it was a good way of seeking to incentivise people. Dodgy though because it may not work anyway.

Updated chart showing the 7 day moving average of hospital admissions in England, by region and overall. Most notable rise is in NW England.
mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1303732351470579715

Number of patients in that region has also doubled in 11 days from 85 to 173 (an average increase of 6.5% per day).

Coffee those figures. Are they per 100k of population? Or another measure. I'm SE and it went from 6.1 to 7.7 but it says 26% increase. Seems a huge percentage increase for such a small figure?

Journalist questions were really tabloid today asking about Christmas for headlines . They should have asked about what Belgium did - what did they do? Anyone based there ?

I really don't think they should shut down parts of economy currently.

For reasons that a) nationally its unecessary currently to have such a blanket shut down and b) I wonder how much it'll drive people back to meeting in households.

I read somewhere that the reason public socialising is considered a better option is it enforces people to SD more due to the nature of it being public.

I like Germany's system of having a case per 100k population cut off. So I'm a LTLA yin shut within that when cases reach whatever they decide is cut off nationally.

I'm sure this would be popular but I'd suggest people get a card or there's something you download to phone to show your LTLA. This would then mean you can enter a pub/cafe etc if your not in a lockdown or high case area to stop pressing it beyond boarders.

Also I'd have traffic lights used a again with clear criteria.

So if my LTLA was on red that means I am unable to enter any pub etc outside of this.

If on amber then can use xxxxxx

If green can use pubs etc in any area.

Thanks for the chart coffee.