Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

More and more laws now on tracking you and ensuring you give details. More laws to detain you if you sit in a group of 6+1

How the fk did we get here in just 6 months?

I'd feel happier if the ecv were shielded again at this point. Certainly those areas in GM I think that is necessary.

It is all waffle about the police. Many have been on the radio sighing about the lack of resources and how a lot of this isn't really enforceable with the staff they currently have. All this will be 'good will ' again I think.

Are the slides published online? I'm not able to watch it live

For God's sake why don't they mandate masks at sixth form colleges and secondary schools?

Interesting rapid testing pilot in Salford planned

Good to hear from the scientists again

@cathyandclare

Interesting rapid testing pilot in Salford planned

Yes (skeptic in me will believe it when I see it!)

2286 cases added in England. Groundhog Day mainly for the LAs with biggest increase

Brum 145

Bolton 47

Bradford 64

County Durham 35

Leeds 69

Manchester 39

Salford 37

Sheffield 31

Sunderland 44

Wirral 32

mass testing is coming - we'll soon have to prove that we're covid-free to go anywhere

@Firefliess - slides are shown in the Guardian live blog at the moment

@Bercows I'm ECV and haven't really come out of shielding my consultant who I spoke to yesterday has basically said stay in, don't see people

I'd like to invite CW for tea and cake. I'd love a good intellectual chat with him, well from him. I might be a bit mentally hyper from the steroids

They are usually published on one of the government twitter feeds after the conference, firefliess.

Whitty:
Incidence / 100,000 and test positivity % by age group

Clearly there is a genuine rise in cases, as positivity is rising too

So far the elderly are protecting themselves / being protected quite well and the new infections are rising fastest in the 20s age group, probably 16-30

@QueenPaws I've been to 3 shops in total since March 13th. I've worn masks at busy road junctions and on narrow paths to school as well as at school. My GP told me to continue being very careful but they were bound by government lack of advice. My dc were back at school so that's a challenge and sure enough here were are self isolating 🙄

Whitty's slide comparing rates in selected countries

The UK is nowhere near the growth of France and Spain atm - although the UK curve (blue) runs out a few days before the others

It shows the next 2-3 weeks are critical:
whether the UK cases stabilise, as seems the case in Italy, Belgium and Germany, or whether exponential growth takes off
Hence the new restrictions by the govt

How did Belgium manage to get stable again? That's the interesting one to me given it looked at first like it was going the way of Spain.

There's something odd with that chart @bichoc - unless other countries are living two weeks in the future

But yes looks like there are lessons to learn from Belgium (and Germany) about turning around a rising curve (or did they just run out of tests?!)

Chris Whitty says the right thing. Very straight and clear.

7 day average plus daily cases in England graph since 1st Aug

@Firefliess - the key showed that the non-UK countries have been shunted 4 weeks along, I.e. we are roughly 4 weeks behind France, Spain and Belgium; if we'd like to be Belgium rather than France then we need tighter restrictions.

@Firefliess

There's something odd with that chart *@bichoc* - unless other countries are living two weeks in the future

But yes looks like there are lessons to learn from Belgium (and Germany) about turning around a rising curve (or did they just run out of tests?!)

@Firefliess CW explained they put a lag on us to better show the possible paths although he explained it rather better than me

@Firefliess

There's something odd with that chart *@bichoc* - unless other countries are living two weeks in the future

But yes looks like there are lessons to learn from Belgium (and Germany) about turning around a rising curve (or did they just run out of tests?!)

I think it’s adjusted so that it shows where we would be in two weeks time based on what’s happened in those three countries.

It perhaps shouldn’t have the x axis labelled with a date.

I really hope they don't mean pools etc.

Ds is a swimmer. He trains and they SD. It's less risky than people running around playing football or even less so than say rugby because there is no breathing in each other!

It's really odd they said team sports. Because it's purely rugby football and cricket and basketball and netball and hockey.

They have to be far riskier than swimming and horse riding for example?