Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

I actually know MH personally (though not seen him since he entered politics).
I do think he's generally a good egg and intelligent and one of the more competent members of the generally awful government - though up to now has been out of his depth with this. That said he is learning on the job and getting better at it as time progresses IMO. Earlier on I'd say he was facing the sack, not that there was anyone around that could do a better job. If there is a reshuffle this autumn - and please kick out the useless Gavin - then I'd say he's very likely to stay.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

It's not strictly stats, because the paper doesn't seem to have been published yet, but has anyone seen this story?

www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/sports/ncaafootball/college-football-myocarditis-coronavirus.html

PD just reminded me of it when she mentioned the vascular nature of it.

I think this was discredited as it was just the one player in the end who had temporary symptoms. I gather it's not uncommon for respiratory virus to cause pulmonary/heart complications, although it does seem to be more significant with covid

Confirmed cases are now 3,000 per day but there are probably 2 to 3 times this number in reality. We weren't testing nearly as much in March but there's good evidence that cases were at least 100,000 per day by the time we went into lockdown on 23rd March. If we had a doubling time of 3 days back then, then there was probably a similar number of daily infections (6-9k) somewhere around 10th March.

Thanks for doing this analysis. I suspect you're right. Slightly worrying since 10th March was when I took DDs out of school (not because I was worried about them but because I was worried they'd give it to DH and I - and also about seeding spread in our local community knowing there were some very vulnerable parents and staff at their schools).

Also whatever cases we see now caught it on average 5-7 days ago (so transmission, unless people are behaving differently, is already 5-7 days ahead of what we're seeing, on average).

DD has just texted and there is an outbreak at her workplace. People she's been working with, no masks and not socially distanced have tested positive. More staff have started with symptoms today and being sent home.

I think it would be very useful to introduce at minimum a weekly press conference with PM and Whitty and Valance
Not forgetting JVT who seems very influential.
I've thought this for a while. Even cautious rule abiding people have forgotten the rules. An example of this is a cancer group I belong to. Lots of ultra careful people and they were planning a meet up indoors for the group. When I pointed out that only two households were allowed to meet indoors not one seemed to know this was still in effect.

One problem is that the age group who seem to be spreading covid among themselves, the 18 to 30s do not IME watch tv news. (The ones i know just watch streaming channels).

@Fyzz

I think it would be very useful to introduce at minimum a weekly press conference with PM and Whitty and Valance Not forgetting JVT who seems very influential. I've thought this for a while. Even cautious rule abiding people have forgotten the rules. An example of this is a cancer group I belong to. Lots of ultra careful people and they were planning a meet up indoors for the group. When I pointed out that only two households were allowed to meet indoors not one seemed to know this was still in effect.

One problem is that the age group who seem to be spreading covid among themselves, the 18 to 30s do not IME watch tv news. (The ones i know just watch streaming channels).

This is what the DM are saying about meet ups

"I gather it's not uncommon for respiratory virus to cause pulmonary/heart complications, although it does seem to be more significant with covid"

The main reason for the much higher death rate with COVID seems to be that although the minor COVID cases have cold / flu-like syptoms,
the more severe cases are when vascular / clotting symptoms arise and this occurs far more often than for flu.

Confirmed cases in Germany had 20% hospitalised at peak, which

• even allowing for the older infection age at peak, average age 52 -

is orders of magitude more with these more serious symptoms than flu in previous years.

Even the characteristic "COVID ground glass" showing up in lung X rays seems a consequence of vascular damage

Cases were severely underestimated at peak,

but absolute number of hospitalisations and deaths give a ballpark figure for the relative seriousness of COVID compared to past flu epidemics,
regardless of whether testing is adequate / inadequate at any time

and the relative incidence of organ damage is striking

@Fyzz
I agree entirely. It's one thing having rules and it may well be totally clear to us what they are (not that we necessarily agree with them) but I think an awful lot of young people are just disengaged from all this which is part of the problem. Not necessarily their fault but the government needs to up their game in getting through to them. Which I believe they have been trying to by using instagram influencers etc

I am addicted to certain news websites and also twitter feeds. But most people I know get info via word of mouth not actually from an official source.

Also, quite a number of young & younger middle-aged people feel quite bitter that they were given the short straw well before COVID:
student loans, rents, house prices, triple pension lock, Brexit & FOM ...

Hancock is giving evidence to the HoC health committee:

He says the problems with test atm have mainly been caused by laboratory processing problems
and that these will take about 2 weeks to resolve

I'm puzzled about this - it looks also like a software issue with people online being offered test slots at ridiculous distances, when there are likely much closer options

Yup I couldn't get a slot for my DS this morning, despite bordering two areas of Increased Concern (one where the children are at school and I work). We just turned up at the local walk in centre and got tested quickly. Obviously let's see how long the results take, if the problem is at the labs.....

Surely the best way to send the message to a large portion of younger people would be to close bars and pubs again? This also gives them fewer venues in which to transmit. ("Covid-secure my a**e!" as Jim Royal might have said)

Myocarditis being an issue isn’t really a surprise. It’s a complication of a number of viral infections. It was more it turning up in asymptomatic or mild cases.

It might suggest a need to be a bit less hung-ho with the ‘younger people mostly get it mildly so it isn’t an issue’ until we find out more.

ONS report on England & Wales deaths registered to 28 AUgust

57,417 have died with COVID as a main or subsidiary cause on the death ceertificate
See graphs of deaths in Wales & the English regions, compared to 5-year average

This weeds out those who died of a car accident or whatever,
but adds in those where investigations postmortem reveal COVID and its effects, even without a positive test while alive.

Non-Covid deaths slightly above average, but stuart mcdonaldd@ActuaryByDay* puts this down to a reporting effect, not a trend

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending28august2020

Probably not the thread to note this but...

Yesterday I had an email from the choir I belong to saying (with big fanfare) that we're back to rehearsals. This worries me as it's inside, singing, prolonged period of interaction (90 mins), a large group (normally nearly 100 but I imagine it'll be limited to 30?) and the average age is probably around 60 - with many much older and a lot of vulnerable people. I do understand the massive benefit to MH of group singing but am concerned that the timing of this announcement is unfortunate.

Personally, I'd give that a miss - being 64 myself I avoid large gatherings even outdoors.

I do go to the gym 5-6 days / week, but classes are maximum 14 people, good SD and ventilation
weights / machines room is vast but I go there in working hours, when few people are in
All with 5.4 m ceilings and wide open windows & doors, as well as air con bringing air from outside

@Frazzled2207 Not necessarily their fault but the government needs to up their game in getting through to them
Totally agree. I think the young have paid a high price already in many ways and I don't want to see more stringent restrictions such as universities closing if there was a way to engage that age group in modifying their behaviour.

ICNARC Report to 31 August

• 10834 patients and 10704 outcomes
• 54% have been discharged from hospital, so a big increase in survival from the early days
• 42% have died, either in ICU or elsewhere
• 1% remain in ICU
• 3% remain elsewhere in hospital

Good flowchart:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/499fd2a6-a7f1-ea11-912a-00505601089b

RE the lack of capacity of tests at the mo.
You don't think this is a backlog due to some of the lab staff having a summer holiday or a break over the bank hol weekend just gone?
It would explain why they have the capacity to do the test, but have a backlog at the lab.

Oh, and I'm not pointing fingers saying the lab staff shouldn't have time off, of course they should - purely that it's a foreseeable issue when people have time off and you're running at near capacity.
Which will probably happen at the end of Dec/beginning of Jan.

Two weeks to sort the testing out?! Ffs.

Numbers in Scotland today are worrying; 3 deaths , 170+ new cases , more people in hospital ...

North east young people have had a big collective telling off apparently. Lots have had a test and gone out before receiving results. According to world at one today.

I’m had some news today that I may be facing a diagnosis which would plump me firmly into what would have been the shielding group. There’s some hope it may not be that bad, but the rising numbers are making me feel very doom and gloom. It would be a very good time to have some news on a vaccine wouldn’t it Might make it easier to have a final push on restrictions until it can be rolled out. Think we’re looking at November for next scientific update?

That's interesting that it's rising sharply in teens, but the 0-5, 5-9 groups are rising slower.

I'm not surprised at all. Both teen dc have said they have not felt comfortable in school corridors or common rooms due to crowds. This is happening in many secondary schools and is really unacceptable. Add to that the fact the teens think because they are all at school, that it's ok to have parties too 🤦‍♀️