Do people actually realise how few are dying from coronavirus now?

[Mrschickpeabody]

It’s all still doom and gloom on the news as normal regarding coronavirus. Loads about cases going up, local lockdowns, negativity regarding schools going back but nothing about the fact that hardly anyone is actually dying from coronavirus or being admitted to hospital. Can we not hear about positive things for once?

I can guess how this will go....

Cases are low... “It’s over. Definitely got herd immunity or cases would definitely have risen by now!”

Cases rise. Hospitalisations are low.... “Cases are rising but so what...See, it’s all over, no one’s getting ill any more!”

Hospitalsations rise.. “Deaths are low! People aren’t dying... it’s done”

Deaths rise... “It’s still not as bad as April, and it’s only the old dying anyway.” etc...

I’d have more time for the libertarian position if only those who hold it showed a bit more intellectual honesty rather than use false equivalences and cherry-picked stats that fall apart with after the most feeble of fact checking, or shift their position more than a toddler with ants in their pants after guzzling a dozen Haribo.

Macron said there'd be no national lockdown, and yet recently said he couldn't rule it out

I assume everything will be done to avoid but I really wouldn't say never.

There won’t be a lockdown like last time

No, I really hope not too.

It’ll be every man for himself by then

A libertarian dream... A nightmare for the vulnerable.

Derby what do you is best if it does start to go down hill? Ie type of restrictions etc

@MarshaBradyo

It’s not so much type of restrictions but compliance with restrictions we currently have. The more compliance with the basics, the less heavy handed the restrictions need to be, which is far better for us all on every level. The Government need to focus on clear messages and rebuild much of the trust they’ve lost. If they can’t regain the trust of the wider public in their messages, then it’s a losing battle and their pleas will fall on too many deaf ears. How do they rebuild that trust? Clear, consistent, empathetic messaging and practice what they preach... but that’s a Herculean task based on where we are currently.

@Alex50

I don’t personally know anyone, Boris is not one of my acquaintances😊 No I don’t know anyone, I know people who have had it mildly and they are fine now, considering the medical profession are saying most people will recover within 2 weeks, but what is most people I have no idea. There are no figures on either side of the argument.

And once more. Just because you don’t know any people who have been affected, it doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

This article and the studies linked might be an interesting read for you. And yes, you don’t know the people in this article, but that doesn’t mean they’re not real people

From the Italian study:

Patients were assessed a mean of 60.3 (SD, 13.6) days after onset of the first COVID-19 symptom; at the time of the evaluation, only 18 (12.6%) were completely free of any COVID-19–related symptom, while 32% had 1 or 2 symptoms and 55% had 3 or more. None of the patients had fever or any signs or symptoms of acute illness. Worsened quality of life was observed among 44.1% of patients. The Figure shows that a high proportion of individuals still reported fatigue (53.1%), dyspnea (43.4%), joint pain, (27.3%) and chest pain (21.7%).

Article on long covid sufferers.
www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haulers-covid-19-recognition-support-groups-symptoms/615382/?utm_source=feed

Italian study
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351

British study
www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/08/14/2020.08.12.20173526.full.pdf

German study
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916

And I’m aware that flu and other viruses can cause long term complications. But there are vaccinations for flu, chicken pox, measles, rubella... I’m not doctory enough to know if covid is more likely than flu to leave long lasting effects, but for flu/chicken pox/measles, we see fewer long term effects because we have vaccines and they don’t have the chance to run unchecked.

However, for covid, as there isn’t a vaccine yet, keeping numbers low on the community is probably a bit of a good idea.

Sometimes people also seem to forget that health or health related workers, including hospital administrators to cleaners are also people.

They all can get infected in their normal lives and then have to stay at home for possibly weeks.
If numbers rise fast, health services will be compromised, even without many covid patients filling hospital beds.

At least during a lockdown (and I'm not saying there should be one now) health services can still operate. If there is not enough personnel in hospitals they simply have to close.

@TaxTheRatFarms i’m not doubting long term health issues exis. there are also people who have had Covid who have made a full recovery, most-medical articles I’ve read it said most people will make a full recovery. I don’t know what that % is, is it 80%? There isn’t any reliable data yet. I have definitely seen the people I know personally have made 100% recovery and they are fine.

Recovery will probably depend on treatment and how far it goes without it.

Initially doctors didn't seem aware of the clotting issue. And that people got very low O2 in their blood without trouble breathing.
Just ending up under ventilation is damaging to the body.

If people are treated earlier, and there are now drugs that are known to help, not only dearhs will be lower but long term damage should reduce too.

There's very little point in asking for exact numbers now. But it just stands to reason that if you end up with visible damage to lungs and clots that will give you smaller or larger strokes, that this damage won't be repaired, if at all, for some time.

This is another reason why it's important to track cases early on. So that people can be followed up and treated. With large numbers, as we've, seen it becomes very difficult or impossible.

Yes but the people I know didn’t go to hospital as they weren’t ill but had a positive test, they had mild or no symptoms back in April and May, they are fine, they had no medical treatment.

So you can't really say anything about people experiencing more symptoms?
Yes, a large number doesn't have symptoms or have few. We know this.
The long term damage seems to be in people who get it worse (for the reasons I've explained above).

I’m sure I read something earlier in the week about them finding increased levels of myocarditis in mild or even asymptomatic cases. Interestingly age didn’t seem to be a risk factor for this. Obviously it’ll need more research, but it’s another thing on the list of things we don’t know about COVID-19 so we need to treat it with caution.

There may have been something similar a few months back too.

Some people get bitten by a tick whilst walking and have long term health conditions from it.

Others have CFS and that can last a lifetime.

Measles and mumps again can have long term negative outcomes.

Malaria....etc

Covid isn't the only virus where long term conditions might in rare cases continue or reflare up others.

@WALKING2
Well said - many posters on here demonstrate an abysmal lack of judgment on evaluating risk.

Covid isn't the only virus where long term conditions might in rare cases

many posters on here demonstrate an abysmal lack of judgment on evaluating risk

Do you view 10% as “rare”?

If numbers are still low it's because the majority of people are still behaving in a more cautious way than they would normally.

If we all just switched back to 'normal' tomorrow you would soon see exponential growth in infections again.

Covid isn't the only virus where long term conditions might in rare cases continue or reflare up others.
Nobody is saying it is.
The point is that this virus spreads quickly and has end up (and it will if unchecked) causing large numbers of sick people.
It's not uniqueness but the scale that's the issue with the long term complications.

And, in any case, you'll notice that people and health authorities do their best to limit the impact of all those diseases.
They don't let them rip.

People who don't understand this, are not in a position to criticise anyone's risk awareness or evaluation.

Is that 10% who present with symptoms we have no idea whatsoever or how may get it without so risk can’t really be quantified

@Vinoonasunnyday

Is that 10% who present with symptoms we have no idea whatsoever or how may get it without so risk can’t really be quantified

As this virus has demonstrated so far, I'd say it's safer to go with the worst case scenarios. Or at least the bad scenarios, just in case.

Exactly Vino hence their need to be cautious.

@WALKING2

Some people get bitten by a tick whilst walking and have long term health conditions from it.

Others have CFS and that can last a lifetime.

Measles and mumps again can have long term negative outcomes.

Malaria....etc

Covid isn't the only virus where long term conditions might in rare cases continue or reflare up others.

So I’ll repeat myself

Measles and mumps: vaccines available
Malaria: anitmalarial treatment available as a preventative measure.

Agree with you on the ticks though.

@WALKING2

Some people get bitten by a tick whilst walking and have long term health conditions from it.

Others have CFS and that can last a lifetime.

Measles and mumps again can have long term negative outcomes.

Malaria....etc

Covid isn't the only virus where long term conditions might in rare cases continue or reflare up others.

Most of those you mention aren't highly contagious.

How many

Well hospitals in London almost ran out of oxygen. Seems pretty dire to me.