Do people actually realise how few are dying from coronavirus now?

[Mrschickpeabody]

It’s all still doom and gloom on the news as normal regarding coronavirus. Loads about cases going up, local lockdowns, negativity regarding schools going back but nothing about the fact that hardly anyone is actually dying from coronavirus or being admitted to hospital. Can we not hear about positive things for once?

I’ve googled it and can’t find it, if you do come across it, would you mind sharing, thanks

www.wsj.com/articles/as-child-covid-cases-rise-doctors-watch-for-potential-long-term-effects-11598289636

Patients 14- to 20-years-old had a range of symptoms similar to what adults have experienced, with respiratory and flu-like symptoms, such as headache and muscle aches. And while most teens had symptoms that resolved in a week, 25% still reported symptoms after 12 days, and 10% still had symptoms after 17 days, such as cough, fever and shortness of breath.

Sorry I said 'children' because mine in question is in this age group, but 14+ is not all children - I am always meaning secondary school.

Exponential growth would’ve hwve happened by now

Yes shielding ended the end of July but many were put and about before then and let’s face it I don’t care if you believe it or not but that crappy bit of cloth on ur face is doing nothing

Rate of incline was massive earlier in year and if we were following similar pattern even with some tiny restrictions that are currently in place, we would have seen a massive rise if it was going to happen

Last time cases doubled almost each week as did admissions

That’s not happening and hasn’t happened dispite all the panic of people who don’t distance

Yes cases have gone up but that’s due to doubled testing compared to earlier

I got train yesterday and I was only one in mask

So don’t tell me it’s only ok because of restrictions cos hardly anyone off Mumsnet if doing it!

Exponential growth would’ve hwve happened by now

France has exponential growth now.

It didn't two weeks ago.

There's no reason it couldn't happen here.

@ChanceEncounter thanks it’s an interesting read and one to keep an eye on, when they release more information.

France has massively increased testing and vast majority are asymptomatic

No expo growth in admissions

@Vinoonasunnyday

Exponential growth would’ve hwve happened by now

Yes shielding ended the end of July but many were put and about before then and let’s face it I don’t care if you believe it or not but that crappy bit of cloth on ur face is doing nothing

Rate of incline was massive earlier in year and if we were following similar pattern even with some tiny restrictions that are currently in place, we would have seen a massive rise if it was going to happen

Last time cases doubled almost each week as did admissions

That’s not happening and hasn’t happened dispite all the panic of people who don’t distance

Yes cases have gone up but that’s due to doubled testing compared to earlier

I got train yesterday and I was only one in mask

So don’t tell me it’s only ok because of restrictions cos hardly anyone off Mumsnet if doing it!

The fact that most people are distancing or taking precautions. Plus the test coverage is much better now. During the first phase the extent of people infected was largely underestimated in the UK. I won't put it down to one factor.

In Manaus, as mentioned earlier, people will have begun to be more weary of each other. It's a natural reaction, that leads to distancing and less cases, even without official lockdown.

I don’t know and won't guess how it will pan out, but my best guess is that there won't be a new exponential growth unless all caution is thrown at the wind.

You can’t compqre now with for unless you apply same criteria that’s how science works

So unless we only test those I’ll enough to be taken to hospital like last time then you can make anything fit the narrative

Truth is the exponential growth earlier wan seem in sick people

We haven’t seen anything remotely near that this time

They’re almost all asymptomatic

We have so many hundred in hospital and it’s not increasing whereas last time it quickly went 50-5000

Excuse typos

So uk test positivity isn’t actually increasing at all dispite all the relaxations since March

@Vinoonasunnyday

France has massively increased testing and vast majority are asymptomatic

No expo growth in admissions

that is simply not true. France has tested on average about 70k/day and they are still keeping to that number.

Some possible explanations include lower inocula (thanks to distancing and masks) and lower ages, plus vulnerable shielding.

Today's figure is 1940 and it is confirmed the % positive is rising (not hugely but it is rising).

Also we do not have enough tests, presumably if we did the figure would be higher.

@Vinoonasunnyday

Excuse typos

So uk test positivity isn’t actually increasing at all dispite all the relaxations since March

The number of cases is increasing in the UK. And the % of positive tests took I think, but should check.

Cases increasing because tests increasing

Vast majority wouldn’t have been tested earlier in year

Therefore if you think about earlier - I’m just those that were ill and tested - cases rose sharply

That’s not happening now in uk in anyway

We are searching and finding cases
They’d be no growth at all if only testing hospitals as it’s not going up there

Earlier hospital admissions rose rapidly from 1 to 1000s we have hundreds now and they’re not rising in same way

France increased testing by 33% between week 1&2 of August alone

Not sure if I’m explaining well

But ignoring the asymptomatic now - yes they existed earlier but we didn’t test mild or asymptomatic then

So the rise we saw was in the very ill

We have very ill now and it’s not happening in same way

If we applied same criteria now as we did then, our cases would be in double figures!

Yes, this is how it starts. Was the same in France

@Vinoonasunnyday

I'm not convinced about France's test increase. Their official test numbers don't show this, but I did read it in some articles - without source.
Seeing the state online journalism is in, I'm not sure that fact checking is happening.....

@Vinoonasunnyday

www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-over-920-covid-19-patients-hospitalized-in-a-day/1954262#

Why do you think we will be any different to Spain?

I must remember that if I go out and sit in a pub, with suspected Covid staff serving, that not many people catch it, and if I'm unfortunate and do, not many will die so that's ok.

Providing people continue to be vigilant, take sensible precautions, and avoid unnecessary contact, we may be able to maintain low numbers of sufferers but if we look back in to the past and the dreadful flu of 1918 we might recognise certain patterns.

[quote Derbygerbil]@Vinoonasunnyday

www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-over-920-covid-19-patients-hospitalized-in-a-day/1954262#

Why do you think we will be any different to Spain?[/quote]
Scary

Looks like it could all get back to how the situation was last spring. Especially now schools have gone back. Yet surely another lockdown would finish the economy off. And however fast the vaccine research is going, it's not going to be in time to stave it off, is it?

There won’t be a lockdown like last time

Government won’t allow it and half population won’t follow it as not as scared anymore

It’ll be every man for himself by then

I don’t want businesses to close again. It would be hellish going back to furlough / grants. I doubt even Sunak can muster up the appetite for more debt.

Which leaves family / social restrictions. Some will follow, not sure what percentage.

I doubt people will if it’s only high level of cases though. I don’t know if it gets worse (deaths).

People can’t afford to

Before thete was fear and support from gov

Now people aren’t scared unless they know they’re at risk

Although healthy people can die it’s extremely low risk so people will put personal circumstances first

Eg I wouldn’t isolate like before if it meant losing my job cos I’d lose my home, everything

I don’t imagine government forcing closures cos economy couldn’t handle it

Not like there’s other jobs on market

Many wouldn’t either if it came down to it

yes we know