Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@BigChocFrenzy thanks again for setting up the new thread

From PHE surveillance report for England to 25 August
cases, deaths, hospitalisations:

Thank you for the new thread

I just grabbed the 999th post on old thread, so OP was a bit rushed !

This is the latest ONS England infection surveillance report for 14-20 August, released today

Good work, nice to see the R number in there. Thanks for setting up!

Can I just say, this thread has become my go to place on a daily basis.. If I see the stats on worldometer or on the news and cant really make out the implications of the figures, I come on here as I know someone will have made sense of it all, so thank you to all those that contribute.

This will be in the next OP too:

NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly statistics

A thank you from me as well.

France high again today, wonder if they'll hit even higher next week and have a new daily record :(

@SparkleSW

You beat me to it with post on France... 7,379 new infections is comparable with the current US rate. It’s a concerning trend that could very easily happen in the U.K.

Of course, their daily record will have occurred when testing was far less extensive, so even if it does surpass it, it would have to be considerably higher to be comparable.

But what have France done “wrong” they have totally adopted mask wearing (more than we have), had a stricter lockdown and got cases lower than we did. They opened up about the same as we did? (I know schools were back wider before the summer but that cannot be the cause of this!)

Track and trace I even thought they had an app which we still don’t! Basically with the us I got it they did open up when cases were still High but France flummoxes me as they really do seem to have done it the way we thought was “right” and it has still gone wrong! Have I missed an obvious whole in their strategy?...if not it seems inevitable we end up going the same way?

Can you tell me where I can find the most recent rates per 100,000 for Salford

21 red zones in France, with high infection rate.

French PM warning of exponential infection growth, hence why strict measures now brought in:

From today, compulsory masks for pedestrians - not cyclists or runners - brought in for Paris and other high areas
People not allowed to take off masks to smoke !

All secondary school students must wear masks in class

France opened up most things - iirc shops, restaurants, hotels, clubs, cinemas etc - in mid-June which may have been too early,
although nothing like as early as the USA
SD and masks were obviously limited in such places, so infections can build up gradually until exponential growth suddenly starts to explode

The UK lockdown seemed to go on too long, but it did ramp down infections to a very low level;
hence why they have not risen much over the last few weeks

Paris, Marseille and several other areas now have > 50 / 100,000 cases

hope we can stay low 🤞

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/traffords-coronavirus-infection-rate-spikes-18845325

I'm just wondering what people think about this. It seems to me that a political decision has been made against public health advice but I'm not sure how critical it is. It seems silly to me to lift the extra measures when rates are rising, and just before schools go back, but I wondered if the actual rates were that bad.

Can I just say, this thread has become my go to place on a daily basis.. If I see the stats on worldometer or on the news and cant really make out the implications of the figures, I come on here as I know someone will have made sense of it all, so thank you to all those that contribute

Ditto

I just hope France doesn't spiral now with the schools due back and such. Scary how quickly it can lift off again!

Italy has closed nightclubs
and made masks mandatory between 6pm and 6am (so not really during normal working & shopping hours )
When schools return, students from age 6+ will have to wear masks in communal areas

Authorities there say 25-40% of new cases are from returning holidaymakers

This seems to be a common factor across Europe:

Countries balanced the risk of allowing overseas holidays vs the damage to the travel & hospitality sectors - and a frustrated public - if they didn't
This resurge in cases looks to be the result

@SparkleSW

I just hope France doesn't spiral now with the schools due back and such. Scary how quickly it can lift off again!

... Schools don't seem a driver of infections

However, where there is high community spread, this continues within schools to at least some extent, especially between staff

France opened up most things - iirc shops, restaurants, hotels, clubs, cinemas etc - in mid-June which may have been too early,
although nothing like as early as the USA

It may also have locked early enough to stop widespread community transmission before lockdown - so the actual number of people at risk of catching it is higher compared to more impacted countries, even low levels of herd immunity still dampen growth rates particularly where group size is also limited through continued measures.

Thank you BCF.

Thanks