Why isn’t there more deaths atm?

[Mummypig2020]

Just that really. Obviously cases are going up and have been for a few weeks. Surely there would be at least an increase of people in hospitals by now at least? Or in a week or so are we going to suddenly have hundreds of deaths again?

@Alex50
So?

Care home deaths have also been counted by the ONS over the last 5 years.

Once the winter passes we'll see the true death toll in comparison to previous year's.

In terms of the care homes I think the point is that but for the bungling there we’d have had pretty much half the deaths :( which would have still have been terrible but not as bad as what we ended up with. And also, one would hope, not likely to occur in the same way again given there is PPE/testing/not discharging Covid patients into care homes from hospital.

Not all the excess deaths are covid

www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

"The estimates, made by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and analysts from several government departments, suggest there were 38,500 excess deaths in England connected to COVID-19 between March and 1 May.

However, the report concludes 41% of those deaths were the result of missed medical care rather than the virus itself."

They are now saying for every 3 that died of covid, another 2 died from missed medical care

So the numbers of hospital admissions are going down, maybe because care homes have a better structure now, maybe the rest of us can get on with our lives. 0 new admissions to hospitals in the whole of London on the 8th August, do you not think it’s time we started living a normal as possible life again?

nearly half were from care homes.

29.6 % is not "nearly half."
mobile.twitter.com/ONS/status/1295640720565514240

I think that the non vulnerable definitely should, yes.

I think the vulnerable should beware false safety.

@Emeraldshamrock

Once the winter passes we'll see the true death toll in comparison to previous year's.

Exactly this. We can only judge the excess deaths at the end of the year and compare to previous years. As PP said our death rate has been below average for a while now so it could be argued some of those that died statistically would have died anyway during this year. Also what excess deaths we do have will be a mixture of the direct and indirect result of covid.

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]nearly half were from care homes.

29.6 % is not "nearly half."
mobile.twitter.com/ONS/status/1295640720565514240[/quote]
I’m in Scotland. It was 46.4% here, same as in hospitals.

so why don't care homes count? A disproportionate number of deaths in a short period of time.

Is it an age thing?

Who has said they don’t count?

@RaspberryRuff
Read from the top of the page.

As for vulnerable people needing to keep themselves safe, the government states this in respect of return to school...

www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions-for-schools-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/guidance-for-full-opening-schools

Vulnerable children are required to go back

I think the biggest factor in the lack of hospitalisation/deaths is that we have changed the definition of a case - earlier on in the pandemic to qualify for a test (and therefore be counted) you needed to be seriously ill, whereas now we are testing huge numbers of people with mild or even no symptoms. The bulk of these people seem to be younger, healthy people. As a PP says I think it underlines that for most people this is a mild disease and we may now be seeing a truer representation of the overall death rate.

For the few who are admitted to hospital, treatments have also improved and you’re much less likely to die from it than a few months ago.

Nope, still not seeing anyone saying “care home deaths don’t count”.

"I think that the non vulnerable definitely should, yes."

Within the confines of guidance at least. The non vulnerable "getting on with life" has lead to greater Manchester locking down again as a result, and there are still people having house parties of a 100 people.

There was another good illustration of this with the Glasgow? school where it turned out teenagers were having house parties (presumably sanctioned by the parents). Another teenager who had been following guidance has to isolate due to being sat next to a bubbleparty goer in class. His parents are not best pleased.

The huge rise in US cases is happening all over the southern states, which are way hotter than the UK, so I don't think that's a primary reason.

@RaspberryRuff

Okaaay

Erm, seems strange that care home deaths were drawn out as somehow different in the sum of excess deaths. But if you can't see that meh not my problem

"The huge rise in US cases is happening all over the southern states, which are way hotter than the UK, so I don't think that's a primary reason."

But isn't air con far more common there also? It would be still consistent with indoor transmission being the main risk factor for infection.

Brazil, Mexico, Ecuador...

That's true walksen but I think they're tracing a lot of outbreaks to outdoor events.

I haven't heard that. I suppose it depends on the type of event and proximity etc. Ve day parties blm protests beach crowds didn't cause much of a surge ( although it seemed possible they might at the time)

At the moment doesn't it seems like air conditioned food and dessert factories, indoor gatherings and in Spain at least bars and nightclubs cause the majority of infections? Bit worrying if we will be stick indoors in colder rooms etc over the next few months.

Aren't the problems the U.S. is having in the southern states due to younger people not socially distancing, then cases went up but not deaths, then deaths went back up as they were infecting other (more vulnerable) contacts. I do think cold, damp air a la food factories seems to be an issue. Maybe droplets hang in the air for longer there.

[quote chickenyhead]@RaspberryRuff

Okaaay

Erm, seems strange that care home deaths were drawn out as somehow different in the sum of excess deaths. But if you can't see that meh not my problem[/quote]
I really don’t see the point you’re making at all. In terms of the care homes it was an absolute travesty and those deaths should not have happened. It doesn’t mean they don’t count, far from it, but that if the care homes issue had been better managed we’d be in a much better place re excess deaths. Not much we can do about that now other than learn from it so that care homes aren’t decimated in the event of a further spike.

Clearly what happened with hospital discharged to care homes caused unnecessary loss of life, but it’s totally unrealistic to think there would have been no deaths in care homes had that not happened! Also, those who tend to push this as a way of minimise the impact of Covid also tend to promote the idea it was “just the flu”... If we had just treated the Covid like the flu there’s every reason to think the death toll in care homes would
have been worse!

Yeah, I don’t think there would have been none, but hopefully not thousands :(

Yes things like flu and norovirus are very bad news for care homes, never mind Covid. The poor souls :(