Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

The age group 17-29 has the highest % with antibodies, but that's only 8.2% (highest estimate within 95% confidence level is 10%)

London is still the highest region, but only about 8.5%

"Declines in prevalence can be partially explained by demographic differences in the donor population as lockdown measures are relaxed, for example regular donors aged 70 years and above were not allowed to donate during lockdown,

but this exclusion was lifted from week 26.

Waning immunity may also be a contributing factor to the lower prevalence."

Where are you looking at the latest surveillance report @itsgettingweird? I can only see last week's on the website

@Firefliess

Where are you looking at the latest surveillance report *@itsgettingweird*? I can only see last week's on the website

I looked at the one emailed today.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

It is published here.

Today's numbers

Case and Testing data has been updated.

13/8 - 1,129 cases reported
14/8 - 1,441 cases reported

but we knew it was likely to go up because of the Northampton cluster, of course. I suspect that will be the case for a few days. By specimen date, 10th is the highest at 1,297.

Testing - up, last 2 days are the highest P1+p2 testing we've seen, but rolling 7 day % rate spiked up a bit today even so. Not necessarily an issue though, as I imagine the % rate for the N'hampton testing is super high.

ONS and Covid Zoe app continue to agree that overall there appears to be no increase. England hospital admissions 7 day rolling average stable/down very slowly, 7 day average of people in hospital down 15% week on week.

In fact Northampton alone contributed 233 of today's 1,441!

And not a lot said about it to be fair:

www.northamptonchron.co.uk/health/coronavirus/update-coronavirus-northampton-public-health-officials-weekly-press-conference-2942410

.

Has the data from the antibody study been released? I notice that it mentions health care professionals and care workers as having higher % of antibodies, which isn't a surprise. I wonder if education staff have a higher % too (significantly more than general), because if they don't, then that should add confidence to school returning staff and parents.

@ohthegoats

Has the data from the antibody study been released? I notice that it mentions health care professionals and care workers as having higher % of antibodies, which isn't a surprise. I wonder if education staff have a higher % too (significantly more than general), because if they don't, then that should add confidence to school returning staff and parents.

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Ward-et-al-120820.pdf

They don't split workers out that granularly - just healthcare, care homes, other essential workers and "other workers" which is the reference level.

Can anybody tell me if the increase in positive tests is the same as the increase in testing? Specifically for Bradford? I have a friend who lives there and doesn't see that there's a problem, she is saying there are more positive because there is more testing, which obviously will be correct to a point, I just wondered what the stats were? Thanks.

@usernotfound0000

Can anybody tell me if the increase in positive tests is the same as the increase in testing? Specifically for Bradford? I have a friend who lives there and doesn't see that there's a problem, she is saying there are more positive because there is more testing, which obviously will be correct to a point, I just wondered what the stats were? Thanks.

For the week 31 July -6 Aug, Bradford were testing 146.3 people per 100,000 per day, with a positive prevalence of 56.8/100,000 per week.

Over the past three weeks, Bradford has been testing 116/100,000, 124/100,000 and now 145.6/100,000. Over that time prevalence has increased as well, but looking at the data for tests vs cases I think both have gone up about 15% week on week -which suggests a stable level of infection.

Can anyone clarify something for me(I'm a long term lurker who isn't great at maths). Am keeping an eye on rates in out LA on the North East which has been fairly low no more than 1-3 per day Today 8 have been added but when you look at the data the specimen dates range over a week does this just suggest a slight delay in testing at is it something to worry about (la is Gateshead) if anyone is super in to data and wants to take a look!

@clareykb

Can anyone clarify something for me(I'm a long term lurker who isn't great at maths). Am keeping an eye on rates in out LA on the North East which has been fairly low no more than 1-3 per day Today 8 have been added but when you look at the data the specimen dates range over a week does this just suggest a slight delay in testing at is it something to worry about (la is Gateshead) if anyone is super in to data and wants to take a look!

That's normal - all the cases "announced" today will actually be from specimen dates from the last few days! Usually the bulk from the last 3/4, but it can and does go back further.

Did Northampton definitely get added in?

Sorry I have not looked since it was a busy day at work.

I know a lot of the tests were done privately so not sure if that has an impact.

I dont think positive tests have ever got up to half the ONS estimates of infection levels. So if you start to test asymptomatic people you may just be identifying a higher percentage of the infected. that would be a good thing because eventually you'd reduce the level of infection and the rates would start to come down. ONS estimate this week is the same as last week, suggesting no general increase in infections but also not testing at a level sufficient to reduce infection.

However that is a national picture, ONS estimates are not strong enough to give area figures. Bradford shows no sign of positive tests reducing - ignore the last couple of days. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bradford

So there are still untested infectious people, and not tiny numbers, wandering round Bradford, I wouldnt see that as good news.

Northampton have certainly added a lot of positive tests, whether private or NHS confirmation, who knows. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Northampton

I just read this article in regard to Greencore.

“She said 1,300 employees had been tested but there might be up to 100 more cases as between 300 and 400 results are yet to come back.”

Yet in the same article “Greencore employ 2,100 staff.”

Does that mean they haven’t actually tested 800 of their staff?

Article here:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-northamptonshire-53762233

Unless the other 800 staff work elsewhere

[quote SeekingCoffee33]I just read this article in regard to Greencore.

“She said 1,300 employees had been tested but there might be up to 100 more cases as between 300 and 400 results are yet to come back.”

Yet in the same article “Greencore employ 2,100 staff.”

Does that mean they haven’t actually tested 800 of their staff?

Article here:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-northamptonshire-53762233[/quote]
Greencore have multiple sites, including Bow in London, Heathrow, and Atherstone; I would imagine they aren't testing employees here.

I have to admit I'm a bit under-whelmed by the testing levels in Bradford as published in the last 3 weekly PHE surveillance reports. Would have thought given the ongoing high cases per 100,000 it would have been ramped up more?

I agree @boys3. Plus there is still significant disparity between other areas on that - some are testing many multiple of the England average, some barely above.

More digging. It could be rubbish but the local paper states:

“With more than 2,000 people employed at the campus, the positive tests account for around a tenth of the overall workforce.”

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.northamptonchron.co.uk/health/everything-we-now-know-about-northampton-coronavirus-outbreak-greencore-where-nearly-300-cases-have-been-detected-2942714%3famp

Unless they have made the same mistake I thought I had then it could be that not all staff have been tested if only 1,300 tests have been conducted.

Could also be an error but it does make me wonder.