Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@borntobequiet

Are students going in to schools to pick up GCSE results? Never mind schools opening, look for number of infections going up everywhere approx 2 weeks after that.

My DS has a timed appointment for his form; they are to file in, collect envelope, but not allowed to open until outside. No parents allowed in.

That’s reassuring. I’m sure sensible young people won’t then have the meet-ups and alcohol-fuelled house parties that are traditional on these occasions.
Actually, poor kids. After already having been deprived of so much, they can’t even let their hair down in the normal way.

Does anyone have an information on cases in the Netherlands? We have a holiday booked in 11 weeks that will require a plane change in Amsterdam

I agree @itsgettingweird, the public health messaging needs ramping up hugely! What's it like in Germany (@BigChocFrenzy?) or other countries?

Surely we literally need posters on street corners and continuous TV infomercials, not the odd Fb post if you happen to be signed up for local council alerts?

@borntobequiet

Are students going in to schools to pick up GCSE results? Never mind schools opening, look for number of infections going up everywhere approx 2 weeks after that.

My ds is collecting his from school. They have time slots for alphabetic surname!

Just a reminder though how quickly it can grow exponentially and get out of control again.

21st- 28th July we had a whole week of no cases. It was roughly 2- 4 per week the weeks either side.

We've had 46 in the last 7 days, not counting today.

It is difficult to draw too many conclusions from the daily testing information. I would only look at that in terms of where there are hotspots, but if you are in a low case area it is not very useful. Remember that the map with the blue coloured zones only shows anything when there are 3 or more cases in a particular area, there could easily be 1 or 2 still. The daily testing is not picking up anything like all of the cases we know are out there. That is not to say it isn't useful, just important to know the limitations to the information we have.

Outside of localised hotspots, the best information for virus prevalence in my opinion is the weekly ONS surveys. I wouldn't worry about the odd place here or there showing 3 cases.

ONS figures are out:

In Week 32, the number of deaths registered was 1.7% below the five-year average (157 deaths fewer); this is the eighth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average

The number of deaths in care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments remained below the five-year average in Week 32, while the number of deaths in private homes continued to be higher than the five-year average (702 more deaths)

Of the deaths registered in Week 32, 152 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 20 weeks and a 21.2% decrease compared with Week 31 (193 deaths), accounting for 1.7% of all deaths in England and Wales

whats yep, the blue areas are all joined up together, and are very much where city Center bars and flats for younger resident people are. Plus the local rag is reporting clusters linked to bars.

@borntobequiet

Are students going in to schools to pick up GCSE results? Never mind schools opening, look for number of infections going up everywhere approx 2 weeks after that.

No, logging onto school server. Another experience without friendship support.

1089 cases added the cumulative total today. No breakdown yet available for the 975 cases added in England . From the website We have not received the latest breakdown of cases in England. We will update today's records as soon as they become available.

What do people make of this article from an Oxford paediatrician, and the PHE study it links too?

Oops sorry
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/18/children-covid-19-english-schools-virus-safe-reopening

Thanks

A boy who had tested positive for Covid caught on holiday in Croatia went into school last week to pick up his A level results. We are now seeing an increase in cases in Bristol

I read that guardian article too and it sounded reasonable. I’m starting to doubt everything I read though!

@MarmiteCrumpet25 he would have picked the results up on Thursday, the average incubation period is 5 days. Therefore it's not possible for anyone whom he may have infected to have a positive test result by today.

[quote AugustBreeze]@MarmiteCrumpet25 he would have picked the results up on Thursday, the average incubation period is 5 days. Therefore it's not possible for anyone whom he may have infected to have a positive test result by today.[/quote]

"Average". But I agree, it is unlikely that an increase in cases would be seen this early.

I think he had already been mixing with other friends before this and some of them have now tested positive. A bigger spike is likely to follow unfortunately.

The numbers in Bristol are still pretty low and this boy has been identified and his contacts traced.

There will be occasional local spikes when someone tests positive, I think that's an inevitability.

@AugustBreeze

Oops sorry www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/18/children-covid-19-english-schools-virus-safe-reopening

Thanks

adc.bmj.com/content/early/2020/07/28/archdischild-2020-320042 link, along with pdf download option, to the study referred to in the Graun article

In Grrmany, there are a lot of small outbreaks that are believed to be from returning holidaymakers

This chart shows the cases thought to be from abroad over the weeks
However, testing was not as high in the early part of the year, so probably far more cases then in comparison to now

Germany

Cases have been rising since mid-July and R0 has been around 1.0 or slightly over since then

However, still not showing up in the deaths, which have remained nearly always in single figures
and have been

@cathyandclare

ONS figures are out:

In Week 32, the number of deaths registered was 1.7% below the five-year average (157 deaths fewer); this is the eighth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average

The number of deaths in care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments remained below the five-year average in Week 32, while the number of deaths in private homes continued to be higher than the five-year average (702 more deaths)

Of the deaths registered in Week 32, 152 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 20 weeks and a 21.2% decrease compared with Week 31 (193 deaths), accounting for 1.7% of all deaths in England and Wales

Also worth stating that in England

In wks 1-12 overall (eg pre Covid) deaths registered were also running below the 5 year average. Slightly up in wks 1 and 2, but then lower for every week from wk 3 to wk 11, with wk 12 the start of the uplift. Overall deaths 3.5% lower as compared to the 5 year average, with every English region being below the 5 year average.

Since the Covid peak - so starting at week 25 deaths again below the 5 year average every week, and 2.3% lower for wks 25-32 in total as compared to the five year average.

However some variance between regions. As the graph from the ONS data shows deaths in both North East and East Midlands for wks 25-32 overall slightly above the 5 year average.

Not shown on graph

For both North East and East Midlands 6 out of last 8 wks have had deaths above the 5 year average

North West and West Mids 3 out of 8 higher than five year average

London, South East 2 out of 8; and then just a single week higher for each of the remaining English regions.

[quote BigChocFrenzy]Germany

Cases have been rising since mid-July and R0 has been around 1.0 or slightly over since then

However, still not showing up in the deaths, which have remained nearly always in single figures
and have been