Oxford vaccine

[CourseTheyWere]

Does anyone have any information about when this might be ready?

I recall we were told we would know if it worked in July and it might be ready by September. Things seem to have gone much quieter since then.

I know they are doing the stage 2 trials in Brazil and SA but is there any timeline yet for release? I’ve searched but can’t find any information.

Thanks!

Long way to go, and September would be insanely optimistic.

Give it time. Better a safe effective vaccine than something rushed.

They are doing phase 3 trials in Brazil, I think they said it would be October before they knew anything because there was not enough virus around for the phase three trials they had started earlier in the UK to prove anything very quickly. If it works, they can roll it out soon after because they are manufacturing it now.

They gave an update at the end of July, they have been in stage 3 trials for a while but have now moved to another country where the virus is more in circulation. October was a potential for rolling out but I don't think it will be now.

I know it has to be safe. It’s just mentally I had been clinging onto September/October as a date for some news.

I totally appreciate safety comes before anything though.

Long way to go (I have some insider knowledge). Also it will be given to healthcare workers first, most likely. And some of the vulnerable. We are also not sure of the efficacy, maybe 50% efficacy or so.
Remember it takes 22 different vaccines (from different companies) to meet the global flu vaccine demand. And the flu vaccine isn’t a ‘thing’ in the Global South. So to meet the global demand for this you are going to need all the big players- GSK, Sanofi, AZ, Pfizer etc all producing their vaccines and distributing it.

Also the real key to a vaccine is how do you produce in bulk, ship and make sure the vaccine stays stable under different climatic conditions. These are all challenges as well.
So scientifically it is looking good for Oxford but whether logistically your local GP will be offering one before the middle of next year at the earliest is a good question.

I know people who have had the Oxford vaccine as part of the trial, and a couple of researchers. It's looking promising but it's a month or so behind where they were due to switching to Brazil and South Africa for trials. October is likely for health care professionals then the clinically vulnerable but unlikely for the wider population before Christmas, logistics just aren't possible

Thanks everyone. @ChaBishkoot sorry for my ignorance but does ‘efficacy’ mean that it might only protect 50% of the people who are given it?

Vaccine efficacy is how a vaccine works in a controlled population (as distinct from vaccine effectiveness). I am not an epi person but basically there is an actual formula to calculate efficacy and it looks at the % of reduction of the disease in a vaccine group in contrast to an unvaccinated group.
The Oxford vaccine requires a booster I believe and it may well be an annual vaccine like the flu one.
There are other vaccines being trialled that are looking at more ‘universal’ one time solutions.

I think it might be the end of this year. Not expecting it to be a miracle worker but maybe just good enough to help us get a bit of normality back.

Are you ok OP? Are you particularly vulnerable in a high risk area/environment? You sound really really anxious.

@SandysMam I’m fine - just keen for a little bit of good news! Thanks for asking though. 🙂

Thanks @ChaBishkoot

@ChaBishkoot

Long way to go (I have some insider knowledge). Also it will be given to healthcare workers first, most likely. And some of the vulnerable. We are also not sure of the efficacy, maybe 50% efficacy or so. Remember it takes 22 different vaccines (from different companies) to meet the global flu vaccine demand. And the flu vaccine isn’t a ‘thing’ in the Global South. So to meet the global demand for this you are going to need all the big players- GSK, Sanofi, AZ, Pfizer etc all producing their vaccines and distributing it.

Also the real key to a vaccine is how do you produce in bulk, ship and make sure the vaccine stays stable under different climatic conditions. These are all challenges as well.
So scientifically it is looking good for Oxford but whether logistically your local GP will be offering one before the middle of next year at the earliest is a good question.

Do you think it will be more widely available if you paid for it ? Not for me but my parents

No it won’t. I don’t think there will be enough manufacturing capacity. It will take some time to sort out the logistics.
And there might be justifiable anger about some people being able to pay for it.
It’s been a remarkable scientific effort though, it’s remarkable what humanity can do when it pulls together.

Do you think it will be more widely available if you paid for it ? Not for me but my parents

I really hope not - surely this is one time when need comes before cash

But the manufacturing has been done alongside the phase three testing. My understanding as they've got millions of doses already manufacturered in readiness for when this phase is complete, precisely because its time critical.

To the person in the know, how do you guys feel about the Russian vaccine that is apparently ready to manafacture and be rolled out?

Yes but I don’t think those doses are going to the general population. Also typically in clinical trials you also have to offer the vaccine to the countries where you carried out your Phase 3 trial.

Oxford/AstraZeneca have been saying hopefully September/October for results for a while now. At this point though it’s out of their hands - they’ll get results when enough volunteers have been infected to get the evidence they need.

They’re also already working with regulators to make sure they can get that process underway as soon as possible. So probably it’ll get authorised for emergency use first but that could potentially happen very fast after results are available.

It is being produced already in huge volumes. UK government have already paid for millions of those doses with 30 million in September. Getting enough doses for a rich country like ours that already has supply agreements in place isn’t going to be the issue, we here won’t be short of vaccines. Other countries, poorer countries, global South, might not be so fast. There are already agreements in place for the Oxford vaccine to get it to developing countries though.

The Russian vaccine- no no no. Sputnik V my ass.
I had a cat called Sputnik once though. He was very cute.

Also typically in clinical trials you also have to offer the vaccine to the countries where you carried out your Phase 3 trial.

One of those countries is the UK for Oxford/AstraZeneca...

I am taking part in the Oxford trial. They are doing boosters at the moment (I am getting one tomorrow). It feels like October would be very early given that. Next spring feels to me more likely but obviously massive logistics exercise involved (as highlighted above).

I would really love some sort of international 'get the vaccine, pay for a vaccine' initiative as well. It really doesn't sit well with me that we get this and the developing world and countries with huge populations of poor citizens are just left behind. I know some work has been done but I think everyone who can should put their hand in their pocket to help fund this for the good of the world. It might also help some of the normal vaccine programmes which have been disrupted get back on line.

We are also not sure of the efficacy, maybe 50% efficacy or so.

Why would you think ‘maybe 50% or so’? We don’t have that knowledge at all yet, the trials are blinded.

@MaxNormal

But the manufacturing has been done alongside the phase three testing. My understanding as they've got millions of doses already manufacturered in readiness for when this phase is complete, precisely because its time critical.

Yes, this is what I believed to. They have capacity currently for 2 billion doses, with millions already made. Moderna (in phase 3) has also already begun production. There are now 8 (including Oxford and Moderna) in phase 3, I would be surprised if it is only Moderna and Oxford who have already started production.

@GoldenOmber

Oxford/AstraZeneca have been saying hopefully September/October for results for a while now. At this point though it’s out of their hands - they’ll get results when enough volunteers have been infected to get the evidence they need.

They’re also already working with regulators to make sure they can get that process underway as soon as possible. So probably it’ll get authorised for emergency use first but that could potentially happen very fast after results are available.

It is being produced already in huge volumes. UK government have already paid for millions of those doses with 30 million in September. Getting enough doses for a rich country like ours that already has supply agreements in place isn’t going to be the issue, we here won’t be short of vaccines. Other countries, poorer countries, global South, might not be so fast. There are already agreements in place for the Oxford vaccine to get it to developing countries though.

I believe that there is an agreement for all vaccines produced for all pandemics (it is an agreement arranged via or by the WHO) - a percentage has to be set aside for poor nations that wouldn't be able to have access to enough or any vaccines.