Oxford vaccine

[CourseTheyWere]

Does anyone have any information about when this might be ready?

I recall we were told we would know if it worked in July and it might be ready by September. Things seem to have gone much quieter since then.

I know they are doing the stage 2 trials in Brazil and SA but is there any timeline yet for release? I’ve searched but can’t find any information.

Thanks!

Pfizer are starting up production already as well I believe.

Also Pfizer’s still saying October for their results despite starting Phase III trials after Oxford, but 🤷‍♀️

This is from the South African phase 3 trials of the Oxford vaccine:

"We anticipate that we will probably be able to provide an answer as to whether this vaccine works and protects against COVID-19 by the end of November this year. In the worst case scenario it might take us a bit longer probably into the second quarter of next year."

theconversation.com/covid-19-vaccine-trial-in-south-africa-everything-you-need-to-know-142305

This article on the phase three trials in Brazil also mentions November for results:

"Volunteers will be assessed for one year, but the team will use early data from the trial in Brazil, as well as the expanded trials in the U.S., the U.K., and elsewhere, to move ahead quickly with development.

“Partial results from the combination of all of these studies should be ready by November,” Clemens says. “The idea is to combine a registration dossier to be submitted in the United Kingdom, and if vaccine efficacy is proven, it can be licensed there this year.” Vaccine deployment would start right after that in the U.K. and other countries, including Brazil."
www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2020/07/oxford-vaccine-enters-final-phase-of-covid-19-trials-heres-what

I think we need to see the science on the Russian vaccine before we dismiss it. Why rule it out, many vaccine producers have factories in China, what makes it so different. Vaccines are being made political. Both China and Russia are communist countries.

Why rule it out, many vaccine producers have factories in China, what makes it so different.

That they’re saying it’s approved before doing the big-scale Phase III trials is what’s different/worrying. (Although it looks like they’re also doing standard Phase III trials and they’re not ‘approving’ it for anyone except a small number of frontline workers, so it’s probably more of a publicity stunt.)

I'm part of Phase 2 and have just been invited in for a booster as part of extended trials, so there's plenty of research still ongoing.

I agree about Russia, that's why I asked the question, cause I knew you guys here would just dismiss it with a sarcastic stupid answer about a dog or some such nonsense

Russia vaccine is a clear case of politics above science. But the Russian regime is very “post truth”. It doesn’t matter if it works. What matters is just saying “it works”.

The Russian vaccine is behind the Oxford vaccine, they're just starting stage 3 trials now. It might be a perfectly acceptable vaccine, it's too early to say.

I watched an online webinar by a vaccine expert recently (Florian Krammer) about the main vaccines currently in development. Although I only understood about 15% of what he said, one thing he emphasised was how difficult it is to develop a vaccine that completely prevents infection, rather than just mitigate the serious effects of infection. I think that might be what the Oxford vaccine provides. He also explained what the normal timescale for developing a new vaccine looked like, compared with what is happening now. It may feel slow but it really is incredibly fast.

Oh and he has also said there is no way he would take the Russian vaccine!

To keep up with the news, you can go here, to the University's page on the Oxford vaccine:
www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/new-study-reveals-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-produces-strong-immune-response

It looks promising so far. Definitely no serious side-effects, it's all on how effective it is. (And they say here that the strongest response is from those who've received a booster).

From what I read I think in another article here, it went into production in June, so then if/when it is given the go ahead, they'll be able to start vaccinating immediately. It'll take time to roll out, but I'm really hoping they'll start by the end of this year. If they were saying September/October, and were put back by a month in doing trials abroad, I just hope that means by November/December there will be some kind of answer/vaccination programme going into action, if it all goes well.

"If the mission succeeds, the precious hoard will start piling up next month in a refrigerated warehouse at the Catalent plant. By early November, Italian regulators should be in a position to release the first doses to the international market, according to Mario Gargiulo, global head of biologics operations for Catalent, which is based in Somerset, N.J."

"...Drill down further, and there’s the deal that’s leading Italy to bottle from 400 million to 450 million doses of the Oxford vaccine in its four-country pact with France, Germany, and the Netherlands. They’re in it together, but exactly how and when those doses get distributed hasn’t yet been announced."
www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-covid-vaccine-nationalism/

I just think aiming for a vaccine is a mistake.

Better to aim for elimination. A vaccine is a bonus, but we rely on one at our peril.

Elimination is a pipe dream. NZ is an absolute perfect candidate for attempting it and they are already back in lockdown. For countries like the UK that are densely populated with huge traffic hubs I honestly believe it would be impossible.

The idea that the whole world would be able to lockdown sufficiently to be able to eliminate the virus just isn't realistic. You can't lockdown in lots of developing countries, people will starve.

NZ only has 4 community cases, and the immediate lockdown will hopefully stop them from spreading further.
They had over 100 days of completely normal life within their borders. I think that’s definitely something to aim for for every country that can. And the more international cooperation on this the better.

It’s good to see that a large number of countries have come together to ensure that vaccines do get rolled out globally, rather than only to the richest.

They were hoping for September but their testing was in Oxford. It turns out people in Oxford are incredibly careful and so not enough people were getting the virus for them to be able to tell if the vaccine worked. This is why they moved the testing to include Brazil. This has delayed everything, probably by a few months.

@duffeldaisy

The difficulty is that they only succeeded as far as they did because they sealed their borders. That just isn't possible for the vast majority of countries and if the virus remains in circulation in countries that are not capable of attempting eradication it's an inevitability that it will be reimported.

NZ have done a great job and based on their particular set of circumstances it was the right choice but I genuinely don't think it can be attempted widely realistically.

They were hoping for September but their testing was in Oxford

They've had research bases across the UK, not just in Oxford!

raviolidreaming I know there were testing in Oxford and Bristol. Was it anywhere else in the UK?

Place marking

We are also not sure of the efficacy, maybe 50% efficacy or so

And you have inside knowledge? So given that the test of efficacy is in Phase III trials, and they are still blinded you are saying either you sit on the DSMB and are leaking information or there has been an unblinding cock up. Or you are talking speculative bullshit.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@duffeldaisy

The difficulty is that they only succeeded as far as they did because they sealed their borders. That just isn't possible for the vast majority of countries and if the virus remains in circulation in countries that are not capable of attempting eradication it's an inevitability that it will be reimported.

NZ have done a great job and based on their particular set of circumstances it was the right choice but I genuinely don't think it can be attempted widely realistically.[/quote]
Closing borders. Why do you say this isnot possible for other countries?

Of course it's possible.

Well for one the U.K. is very dependent on imports for food. Hundreds of lorries arriving daily and disbursing throughout the U.K. NZ is so isolated that it doesn't import nearly as much in the same way.

In addition London is one of the busiest airports in the world and a major transport hub. I really just don't think it would be practicable to just shut that down indefinitely. NZ is not a major transport hub, again due to its isolated location.

notevenat20 The last thing I saw (and have copy and pasted from ) said they had looked for volunteers in: West Midlands, Thames Valley, north east of England, Southampton, Greater Glasgow and Clyde, London, Bristol, Sheffield, Merseyside, Hull, East Riding, south Wales, Cambridgeshire, Edinburgh and Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Lincolnshire and Leicestershire.

• actually no mention of Oxfordshire!