Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

July
That's true - our local primary only had kids from yr 6 in for two half weeks and yrs4 and 5 for 1 day a wk for 2 weeks only before the summer hols.

871 cases today, which is actually 9 down on last Friday - England is actually down 20.

Hospitalisations steady, number in hospital down 20% on last week.

871 cases and 98 deaths today.

Cases fairly stable despite very high pillar 2 testing, over 100K today.

Looking at the map, some clusters in Leeds, so concerned that may be added to the restricted area in the north ( we live on the outskirts, but within the LA area.)

The DM (sorry) had a story this week that the correction for the PHE death figures was coming today. Has anyone seen anything?

Oh and tests up again. P2 over 100,000 for only the second time.

@PatriciaHolm just seen they have given separate numbers so will withdraw my suspicions so long as next week isn’t given as one number!

Looks like they've added a new data set to deaths....

In area view, there is daily deaths by date reported and daily deaths by date of death

That will be interesting over time

Has anyone else seen the news today about the Mecklenburg area we were keeping an eye on as their schools went back on Monday? Two schools have have to close already with 800 pupils sent home. Luckily one of the teachers diagnosed with Covid hadn't taught any lessons but all the other teachers are having to be tested and the school cleaned. Just shows how precarious the situation is.

Just want to check whether I am being stupid or not.....I probably am ..... it is hot here!

53 people out of sample of 120000 are tested positive in the week 27th July - 2nd Aug.

Does anyone know if they are tested just once during that week or if they test them every day please?

Yes, I put the German thing on the thread earlier. Think bigchoc hasn't seen it yet.

In the UK, they wouldn't close a school or test all the teachers , according to our policies.

@sunseekin That's from a base of 57k eligible individuals and is over a six week period; I think participants are asked to swap once a fortnight.

It's a very small sample hence the wide margins of error and the uncertainties in their reporting, but it is one indicator.

@Piggywaspushed, ah sorry I must have missed that. No they wouldn't here so less likely to be so disruptive. Do we know if the German schools are operating as normal then and not going with a bubble system? Just seen Preston's been added to the NW restrictions. I read earlier there was going to be a further announcement on it all. I'm in Greater Manchester so will be watching with interest.

Not swap, swab!

@Piggywaspushed

Yes, I put the German thing on the thread earlier. Think bigchoc hasn't seen it yet.

In the UK, they wouldn't close a school or test all the teachers , according to our policies.

.... Sorry, piggy, mammon Just returned

Yes that's 2 schools out of 563 in the state, for the first week of return
All depends on how it grows

Hamburg has also reopened, I think Wednesday, which would be a higher risk, so watching that too now

The local health authority, not the school head, decides on the extent of the action - closure of school / form etc

What concerns me is that the more densely populated states - which generally have the highest rates in Germany - are reopening schools next week:
Berlin, Brandenburg, and in particular North-Rhine Westphalia which at 12 / 100,000 for 7 days is double the average for Germany

If we see more than a few schools per state closing, then I'd expect to see rules tightened in all states,
e.g. maybe masks for staff & older students being mandatory instead of optional in classrooms

There already seem to be plenty of sinks, frequent cleaning and quite roomy classrooms
So not a lot else if they want to stay ft

@PatriciaHolm I think what they are saying is that even though clusters were identified in the Israel school, there is little evidence that the school environment is the issue - that the spread was due to school, and not other factors. Which is possible, as Israel opened up a lot at the same time, though having read the study itself it doesn't have any evidence either way. `Yes this bit I do find disappointing - many schools seemed to have increases ‘at the same time’ in Israel and I thought that there were few or no other factors they could pin the increase on? Other families being infected ‘at the same time’ may just show that children were asymptomatic.

I would have liked to have seen this properly investigated by the ECDC - even in chart form - school outbreak - what happened - etc. For example the school in Ireland with a Covid19 case then closed very quickly - and no further cases were found. Yet in the UK a school will not close with just one Covid19 case.

Here in Scotland it has been announced that visors alone are no longer acceptable , you have to wear a mask too.

@MRex Thanks for that - it makes sense So there's a possibility that the children were infected elsewhere (e.g. in the home after parents were already infected), or that the teachers infected the students and each other, but the students didn't infect others. I guess schools are such a concern to get right - as they connect so many of us in the community - and to understand it - is it teacher - child - parent - child - teacher like you say it may be rather than child to child. All should inform our practice.

[quote mammon]@Piggywaspushed, ah sorry I must have missed that. No they wouldn't here so less likely to be so disruptive. Do we know if the German schools are operating as normal then and not going with a bubble system? Just seen Preston's been added to the NW restrictions. I read earlier there was going to be a further announcement on it all. I'm in Greater Manchester so will be watching with interest.[/quote]
..
The first state, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has low population density and low cases so far, hence felt they could chose the minimum rules:
no bubbles and children could mix freely, desk-sharing etc but were asked not to hug - which small kids forgot in 5 minutes !

Other states are expected to have stricter rules, in varying degree:

Each of the 16 German states has a large degree of autonomy in how it follows the general domestic policy laid out nationally e.g. for ft schools

I think it was Neil Ferguson who said the other day that all these people may be making the mistake of never assuming a child is the index case in a household, simply because they tend to be asymptomatic. So, the adult is tested first. A child may never even be tested but if they are, they are assumed to have been infected by the adult rather than vice versa. He said this was something that needed more careful consideration.

@PatriciaHolm

Not swap, swab!

I was trying to work out what you meant 🤣🤣

@Piggywaspushed

I think it was Neil Ferguson who said the other day that all these people may be making the mistake of never assuming a child is the index case in a household, simply because they tend to be asymptomatic. So, the adult is tested first. A child may never even be tested but if they are, they are assumed to have been infected by the adult rather than vice versa. He said this was something that needed more careful consideration.

That interesting.

Real shame he was a twat and broke rules so had to go as I always liked his style and very relaxed delivery if the message whilst also being very clear about the message.

@Oldbutstillgotit

Here in Scotland it has been announced that visors alone are no longer acceptable , you have to wear a mask too.

Very sensible. I've seen people wearing them. They give next to no protection and people usually wearing them too high and the bottom of it is level with top lip!

Worn by professionals I understand...
Not the general public instead of a mask.

I hope England follows suit

New infections in Germany exceeded 1,000 in 24 hours which is the first time since 7 May

Large family & other parties and returning holidaymakers seem to be mainly what's new, with lots of small outbreaks
Compulsory testing at airports from Saturday for arrivals from higher risk countries

I've noticed one of the wait staff at our local cafe wears a transparent face mask, not a visor
It seem quite close-fitting and secure

The other staff are still wearing the usual masks

It's 35C here

My area listed as area of concern after being let off the hook a few weeks ago. I know this from Council Facebook but there must be a better way of getting these messages to communities. It's like party central in my village.

@Piggywaspushed where can I find out what areas are areas of concern?