Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Not sure: list has just come out because Preston has been locked down. It's not terrifically well publicised...

[quote PatriciaHolm]@sunseekin That's from a base of 57k eligible individuals and is over a six week period; I think participants are asked to swap once a fortnight.

It's a very small sample hence the wide margins of error and the uncertainties in their reporting, but it is one indicator. [/quote]
Thanks! You take me back to my a level further maths lessons as a sixth former when we would all just sit there asking “how do you know that?” 😂 love your work on here!

@Piggywaspushed is it this?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/907954/WeeklyyCOVID19SurveillanceeReportweekk322.pdf

Think it's come out today and lists areas of concern....

Yes, that'll be it. How much care things actually policed in lockdown areas like Leicester? What does it mean in practice? I ask because I feel like compliance is very low round here.

@PrayingandHoping that's the one they use. Looks like Rochdale is next to be added according to that latest report and our local northwest newspaper.

@Piggywaspushed going on Luton... not a lot. Someone I know from there went on a day out in London!!

They tested and still are testing like mad though.

I don't live close enough to know if people are abiding the don't go in each other's houses (only asked for by council now not gov) rules

I know those shielding got letters extending it until the 17th August

What I did notice on that was the new emergence of Swindon which seems an outlier.

In summary, in children where COVID-19 was detected and contacts followed-up, only one child contact in the school setting was detected as SARS-CoV-2 positive during the follow-up period. The conclusion from these investigations is that child-to-child transmission in schools is uncommon and not the primary cause of SARS-CoV-2 infection of children whose infection onset coincides with the period during which they are attending school.

I think what they are saying is that even though clusters were identified in the Israel school, there is little evidence that the school environment is the issue - that the spread was due to school, and not other factors. Which is possible, as Israel opened up a lot at the same time, though having read the study itself it doesn't have any evidence either way.

I read it as tracing in school contacts, but not finding that it passed that way.

That’s actually good in the scheme of things, if I’ve interpreted it correctly.

They have released another doc with the Surveillance report, which as slides for each area of concern with data on testing positivity rates etc -

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907706/Contain_Framework_LTLA_week32.pdf

So you can see, for example, that positivity rate in Luton has come right down, but Swindon in is trending up as well as tests up.

I can't find the actual datafile for it though which is frustrating ;-) Some is in the whole report datafile, but not all.

[quote mammon]@PrayingandHoping that's the one they use. Looks like Rochdale is next to be added according to that latest report and our local northwest newspaper.[/quote]
Rochdale is already in the intervention area, isn't it?

It's incidence has been down the past 3 weeks, this week to 30/100,000 down from 39.5/100,000. It's popped up a little the last couple of days but nothing major.

@PatriciaHolm it is, my mistake. You would think I know what areas Greater Manchester covers!

So the latest announcement said the new restrictions in place for the GM area are in for another week at the earliest. By then there will only be 2 weeks until the schools go back around here. Part of me thinks they might keep them until the end of the school holidays to help bring the R back under 1.

@Piggywaspushed I'm in Leicester, nothing is being policed!

We still don't have playoarks open as council have decided against it but we can travel out of area now according to the guidance so I just go to a Leicestershire park with DD instead where the gates have been unlocked.

Gyms and such are still closed within city boundary but not county so again people are just going 2 miles down the road in the other direction.

It's a bit ridiculous to be honest.

The current watched

The following local authorities have been included in the watchlist following the weekly Local Action Committee meeting: Blackburn with Darwen, Oldham, Leicester, Bradford, Calderdale, Pendle, Trafford, Manchester, Rochdale, Tameside, Salford, Kirklees, Stockport, Burnley, Bolton, Bury, Hyndburn, Rossendale, Wigan, Preston, Luton, Swindon, Northampton, Peterborough, Sandwell, Bedford, Wakefield, Oadby and Wigston and Eden.

@PatriciaHolm

They have released another doc with the Surveillance report, which as slides for each area of concern with data on testing positivity rates etc -

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907706/Contain_Framework_LTLA_week32.pdf

So you can see, for example, that positivity rate in Luton has come right down, but Swindon in is trending up as well as tests up.

I can't find the actual datafile for it though which is frustrating ;-) Some is in the whole report datafile, but not all.

the datasets underpinning this would really good to access - and also I think demonstrates just how much data probably is available but not made publicly so...............................yet :)

Having some more analysis -

• all bar 2 of the watched areas (Sandwell and Wigan) are conducting more tests than average
• Some 18.3% of our testing by person is being done in areas that contain 12.5% of our population (England).

That's an interesting report @patricia on the watchlist areas. One thing that's really striking about it is that in almost every single one of those areas the number of people tested fell during May and June - this is counter to the trend in the country as a whole, where the number of tests (and presumably also people tested?) has risen quite steadily since March.

This makes me wonder whether these areas are those where people have not been getting tested when they have symptoms. They're on average quite deprived areas - so maybe a lack of cars to get to test centres with? Or manual jobs working outside the home where the consequence of testing positive is too damaging so the temptation to dismiss minor symptoms too great?

18.3% of testing on the watchlist areas which have 12.5% of people is not really that high is it? Given those areas are responsible for a much higher proportion of cases, and all the extra effort that's going in to them to get people tested this does suggest to me that people are not as keen to get tested in those areas as in other areas.

@MarshaBradyo sorry to hark on, your response made sense however I am still struggling to understand why the ECDC said basically that there was no child to child transmission in Israel. I’ve read the paper reporting on the outbreak and it does not cite any other factors except the school. The article itself concluded that The high school outbreak in Jerusalem displayed mass COVID-19 transmission upon school reopening. The circumstances promoting infection spread involved return of teenage students to their regular classes after a 2-month closure (on 18 May) and an extreme heatwave (on 19 May) with temperatures rising to 40 °C and above [6] that involved exemption from facemasks and continuous air-conditioning.

www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.29.2001352#html_fulltext

There is a CDC report into schools reopening in US which has a bit of a different tack - recommending more practical measures.

www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/index.html

I know what you mean about on average deprived but, actually, statisticians like Bedford because it is Mr Average Town in almost every respect. We also got a list of wards with most positive cases last week . Three were deprived wards, but the 4th one is one of the most affluent in the whole county! The deep dive couldn't figure out why Bedford was so bad either and had no conclusions. It's all quite enigmatic. I think there are a lot of keyworkers in the area though which fits with a high rate of infections in young women.

Interesting - as far as I can see, it looks like a number of the bigger places actually saw steady growth to Mid May, a bit of a decline to end June and then ticking up again.

The rolling average of Pillar 2 tests in the UK did actually take a dip for a week at the end of June (it was running at 52k on the 14th, but went to 35k on the 24th) so it might just be representative of that.

I do think the point about people being reticent to have a test for fear of the consequences is a real one though.

@Firefliess

18.3% of testing on the watchlist areas which have 12.5% of people is not really that high is it? Given those areas are responsible for a much higher proportion of cases, and all the extra effort that's going in to them to get people tested this does suggest to me that people are not as keen to get tested in those areas as in other areas.

Yes - it was 17.5% in 11% last week, which I commented the other day I thought seemed a bit low. I was thinking it might have gone up this week.

Some areas are hugely testing over average though - Blackburn, Bradford, Leicester, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Trafford, Salford, Luton, Northampton and Wakefield are all testing at least 3x as much as average. Leicester and Luton over 10x!

R rate currently between 0.8 and 1, may be above 1 in some areas, Radio 4 news this evening.

Swindon has around 700 employees in an Iceland distribution centre. The centre doesnt seem to have shut when people started testing positive and it's taking a while to get through testing the 700. I assume at least some of the contacts will also be tested.

Hounslow looks to have started increasing faster.