Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

It wasn't about the kids getting ill : we need to move towards looking at their role in transmission and community spread. I also think they are very unlikely to get tested : many tend to be asymptomatic or not symptomatic at all. So, your silent spreaders.
But possibly not the case in the NL.

I still genuinely don't know what these 'occupational or leisure settings (which doesn't really describe schools on eitehr count entirely! )are of similar density...

I think the key with that ECD report is to add 'yet'.

The latest ONS study is out and is reasonably optimistic -

An estimated 28,300 people (95% credible interval: 18,900 to 40,800) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 27 July to 2 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,900 individuals.

Modelling shows rates of people testing positive for COVID-19 have risen since the lowest recorded estimate, which was at the end of June, but there is evidence that this trend may be levelling off when compared with last week’s headline estimate.

During the most recent week (27 July to 2 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.68 (95% credible interval: 0.38 to 1.17) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 3,700 new cases per day.

Last week the equivalents were 1 in 1,500 individuals and 4,200 new cases a day.

The entire ECDC report is an interesting read. It does use the words 'although' and 'however' a lot and recognises its own limitations. My concern is that the UKGov either haven't read it, will read it selectively , or read it and ignore crucial stuff : for example, the bit in the conclusions about needing to protect the medically vulnerable, both staff and children. MV children don't even get mentioned in DfE and many school guidelines and MV staff are expected to return to work with no extra mitigations.

Israel never fits their thinking : and, obviously, is complicated by reopening everything all at the same time, which always leads to politicians being able to say 'oh well, but it could be this instead (although In Israel they seem pretty sure!). At the beginning of all this, the modellers always said you shut things down one by one and reopen them one by one to test effect,

The other worry to me is insufficient attention being paid to children over 15.

bigchoc is this the area of Germany you were talking about?

www.rte.ie/amp/1157805/?__twitter_impression=true

They do seem rather more proactive about isolating and testing. We would go for more bury head in sand techniques here if one teacher tested positive, I fear.

Patricia what's the average age of a primary school teacher? The kids may well not be at risk of developing symptoms and becoming really ill, but they will still share it and pass it on. If the Netherlands did try the "let's get back to normal" approach, then we need to watch and learn something many politicians seem to struggle with.

Piggy When are you heading back to the classroom? local (academy) primary goes back 2/9, high on 3/9.

@Piggywaspushed yes the details in the report are interesting. However, I’ve a relevant scientific background but I am struggling with some of it. The lists all seem thorough and correct, it is some of the conclusions that then seem vague. Has anyone else an opinion or view on this?

For example there is a good section listing all the outbreaks, ending with Israel...
In Israel, a first large school outbreak emerged ten days after re-opening all schools with requirement for daily health reports, hygiene, face masks, social distancing and minimal interaction between classes. The first two cases were registered on 26 May and 27 May, having no epidemiological link. Testing of the complete school community revealed 153 students (attack rate: 13.2%) and 25 staff members (attack rate: 16.6%) who were COVID-19 positive. Overall, some 260 persons were infected (students, staff members, relatives and friends) [88].

But in their summary I do not understand how they came to this conclusion? Perhaps I am missing something. They say...
In summary, in children where COVID-19 was detected and contacts followed-up, only one child contact in the school setting was detected as SARS-CoV-2 positive during the follow-up period. The conclusion from these investigations is that child-to-child transmission in schools is uncommon and not the primary cause of SARS-CoV-2 infection of children whose infection onset coincides with the period during which they are attending school.

Nope, me neither!

Until we are able to study a range of unlocked down settings , the data remains unreliable. The trouble hearts and minds wise is fully open schools being viewed as a useful experiment .

I go back on 3/9 with kids in on 4/9 pussy.

The average age of teachers is rising, I understand. The bigger concern, though, should be around TAs who have a higher occupational risk level anyway . according to nearly all studies, tend to be older, and more likely to have health conditions : and work in very close proximity with the children.

I meant falling, not rising!

The DfE has always tried to spin this as a good thing (as they want to hide poor retention and churn) but Covid wise , it might be a good thing, I guess....

Agree about TAs. One of my children has SN and I have already heard on the grapevine that one of the SNA’s won’t be coming back (because they are fearful) and they will struggle to replace them. I am concerned that the minimal levels of staffing won’t be enough which might end up with increased behaviour problems with the kids. I’d be more in favour of lesser hours in the first month of schooling even if it just to enhance staffing levels.

[quote IceCreamSummer20]@Piggywaspushed yes the details in the report are interesting. However, I’ve a relevant scientific background but I am struggling with some of it. The lists all seem thorough and correct, it is some of the conclusions that then seem vague. Has anyone else an opinion or view on this?

For example there is a good section listing all the outbreaks, ending with Israel...
In Israel, a first large school outbreak emerged ten days after re-opening all schools with requirement for daily health reports, hygiene, face masks, social distancing and minimal interaction between classes. The first two cases were registered on 26 May and 27 May, having no epidemiological link. Testing of the complete school community revealed 153 students (attack rate: 13.2%) and 25 staff members (attack rate: 16.6%) who were COVID-19 positive. Overall, some 260 persons were infected (students, staff members, relatives and friends) [88].

But in their summary I do not understand how they came to this conclusion? Perhaps I am missing something. They say...
In summary, in children where COVID-19 was detected and contacts followed-up, only one child contact in the school setting was detected as SARS-CoV-2 positive during the follow-up period. The conclusion from these investigations is that child-to-child transmission in schools is uncommon and not the primary cause of SARS-CoV-2 infection of children whose infection onset coincides with the period during which they are attending school.[/quote]
I think what they are saying is that even though clusters were identified in the Israel school, there is little evidence that the school environment is the issue - that the spread was due to school, and not other factors. Which is possible, as Israel opened up a lot at the same time, though having read the study itself it doesn't have any evidence either way.

Fortunately that outbreak didn't lead to any hospitalisations.

Piggy most of the TAs are older at our academy primary. I know of a couple who are both really concerned a bit like our situation and are still thinking of packing it all in after the first week if they're not happy with the measures the school has put in place

I’m a primary school teacher and on SLT and my main concern is for our TAs. Generally, they’re all over 50 and have a range of health conditions and some are obese. Lots also have children or husbands with debilitating conditions. Our TAs also - pre COViD - spend lots of time in close contact with certain children whereas teachers tend to move more and not sit with individuals at length.
We have recommended they all wear PPE for times they feel they might be sat with a child for too long and also asked all staff basically to change their practice and not sit with children to support them
In practice - I don’t know what will actually happen as before the summer hols it was impossible to change how we worked as the children needed that contact and still will. It’s our job and hard to abandon kids to be independent. Suspect SEND kids will especially suffer and behaviour will be an issue. And teachers and TAs will be fed up as we can’t do our jobs properly.
Better than not going back at all.

Some interesting information on schools from the newly published SAGE papers:

Outbreaks in educational settings

• From 01/06/2020 to close on 20/07/20 there were 60 confirmed clusters or outbreaks in educational settings, 33 in primary schools, 15 in pre-schools/nurseries, 5 in secondary schools and 7 in schools serving children of mixed age groups (some of these settings serve children with special educational needs (SEN)).
• There were 292 new COVID-19 (confirmed and suspected) ‘situations’ linked to educational settings identified through HP Zone in total during this period. 232 (79%) of these did not meet the definition of a COVID-19 cluster or outbreak because they involved suspected cases that later tested negative for COVID-19, single confirmed cases, cases that did not have direct links to the educational setting, or finally situations where reported cases remain possible pending confirmation.
• For confirmed outbreaks as of 20/07/2020, the median number of confirmed cases in children has been 0 (range 0-9) and for staff members 2 cases (range 0-10).
• Swab testing of some (n=10) or all (n=7) exposed individuals was carried out in 17 of the 60 (28%) confirmed outbreak or cluster situations notified.
• There have been no reported hospitalisations in children since 01/06/2020, and 3 in total among staff members linked to educational settings.
• There has been 1 reported fatality, in a teacher working in a secondary school. This individual had a known epidemiological link (household) and had also carried out charitable work in the community before becoming unwell as a possible point of community exposure. There were no suspected or confirmed cases in the school in which they were working and no wider transmission in that setting is thought to have occurred.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907593/s0647-phe-covid-19-situational-awareness-summary-sage-48.pdf

60 outbreaks over 7 weeks is not zero risk but the numbers are much lower than what we have seen in other workplace settings (let alone hospitals or care homes).

@IceCreamSummer20 - what they're saying is that they found lots of infected students. At 13.4% in an office, you'd expect 5 days or so later you have a cluster of another raft of cases, but they didn't, they only found one more infected child. So there's a possibility that the children were infected elsewhere (e.g. in the home after parents were already infected), or that the teachers infected the students and each other, but the students didn't infect others.

@PatriciaHolm

The latest ONS study is out and is reasonably optimistic -

An estimated 28,300 people (95% credible interval: 18,900 to 40,800) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 27 July to 2 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,900 individuals.

Modelling shows rates of people testing positive for COVID-19 have risen since the lowest recorded estimate, which was at the end of June, but there is evidence that this trend may be levelling off when compared with last week’s headline estimate.

During the most recent week (27 July to 2 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.68 (95% credible interval: 0.38 to 1.17) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 3,700 new cases per day.

Last week the equivalents were 1 in 1,500 individuals and 4,200 new cases a day.

Just read on the bbc that includes Wales’ numbers for the first time so hard to compare to last week? Or can you filter out?

Feels like a sneaky thing for them to do.

This conclusion is consistent with what we have seen over 7 weeks in the UK (as per GAGE papers). Looks like the typical UK outbreak in the educational settings post school reopening involved two staff members and no children.

The single largest outbreak (that included 9 children) must be the well publicised case in Milton Keyes.

@Piggywaspushed

The Netherlands sent everyone back to normal quickly, although I read they strenuously observe guidance issued. They are one of the few countries that got schools fully back. They are on holiday now, though, of course but that sort of opening up could have had knock on effects?

I was sent that by a friend who lives in the Netherlands, and from what he said there is not that much guidance issued on wearing masks/social distancing in public- only what to do if you have symptoms, as well as things like handwashing etc. Obviously that's just one perspective, but he wants the government to issue advice on wearing masks in public places.

And some interesting information on care homes (from a different paper):

www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/REPORT-ON-USE-OF-SARS-CoV-2-GENOMICS-TO-UNDERSTAND-TRANSMISSION-28-June-2020.pdf

CARE HOMES

One of the first studies to be completed in the UK by Shamez Ladhani, Maria Zambon and others describes an investigation in six London care homes reporting suspected COVID-19 outbreaks during April 2020. Residents and staff had nasal swabs taken for SARS CoV-2 testing using RT-PCR and were followed-up for 14 days.
They found that 107/268 (39.9%) residents and 51/250 (20.4%) staff were SARS CoV-2 positive. The 158 PCR positive samples were sequenced and 99 (68 residents, 31 staff) distributed across all the care homes yielded sufficient sequence data for analysis. This identified multiple independent introductions into each care home, rather than a single introduction followed by within-care home transmission. Several introduction events were followed by considerable within-care home transmission, although there were numerous instances where an introduction event was not followed by any detected forward transmission. Clusters commonly contained isolates from both residents and staff members, although it is not possible to infer directionality. There was no instance where clusters contained isolates from different care homes, refuting the suggestion that staff working in multiple care homes had transmitted SARS CoV-2 between different homes in this investigation.

Looks like temporary staff working in several care homes might not have been a major driver for care home transmissions (at least, in the 6 London care homes that have been the subject of the study).

The new SAGE info is interesting but for a period when the majority of children were not in school:
• only keyworker and vulnerable children Mar - June
• June - July only some children from years R, 1, 6 and 10.

So the vast majority of teenagers were not at school.

Just read on the bbc that includes Wales’ numbers for the first time so hard to compare to last week? Or can you filter out?
*
Feels like a sneaky thing for them to do.*

Those numbers don't include Wales, they are explicitly England. They have extended the survey to Wales, and include their numbers explicitly -

We have extended the survey to Wales. During the most recent week (27 July to 2 August 2020), we estimate that 1,400 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 400 to 3,400). This is around 1 in 2,200 people.

Nothing sneaky going on!

That's interesting @winter. Says very clearly to me that the virus spread via people being discharged from hospitals to care homes, and that this happened often.