Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

It is confusing. My godmother died of cancer last month (at home) but tested positive for covid during a hospital stay a few weeks before. There is no doubt that she died of metastatic breast cancer but will her death be included in the "figures" due to her +ve test?

@WhereDoesThisToiletGo - it would be included in PHE figures, not in ONS

(And sorry for your loss x)

@Frazzled2207

6 hospital deaths in England. We might see a zero soon. 5 deaths in Wales which is more than usual.

We need to get it as low as possible before schools go back, of course.

[quote MRex]@WhereDoesThisToiletGo - it would be included in PHE figures, not in ONS[/quote]
Thank you for both comments

@usernotfound0000 and anyone else following the MSOA map.

The government website says about it
The data are updated each weekday, and show the latest 7 days for which complete data are available.

6 hospital deaths in England. We might see a zero soon
5 deaths in Wales which is more than usual.
We need to get it as low as possible before schools go back, of course

How low is low! Zero?

Why is 6 deaths not good enough but school stays open for thousands of flu deaths every year?

@littleowl1 working now thanks. Shared it on a local site (which has caused a massive argument) too :D

Dashboard has been updated; 1,009 cases today, but tests not updated so can't do the % rate..

hospitalisations and number in hospital steadily down - England's current inpatients are down 15% week on week.

gov website updated
1099 cases
77 deaths

MSOA map claims to be updated now to show 2nd - 8th but from my area looks exactly the same.

The new rolling daily map is great. You get a much better idea of patterns.

It has changed Frazzled- the area I was looking at in Leeds has gone down from 16 to 14.

Yes, I can see it has changed too, thanks for the update. Great that we can now see daily changes.

@cathyandclare yes fair point. I now realise. Very locally the situation seems the same however I now see subtle changes.

@littleowl1
thanks I think this looks great and a lot of people will be interested in this .I'm sure you could get some income from allowing advertising on the site.

in the meantime though I'm afraid I've just tried to sign up twice and it seems to have crashed on me . I've just got the 'please give the form a moment to load' message. Also going back a step I think best if you can just select your local authority area rather than going via county. Not least because lots of people near me think they live in Cheshire when actually they don't.

@MRex it is sad isn't it as families generally couldn't visit to say goodbyes. I was relieved that we were full so they could push as much as they liked but without a spare bed we couldn't take anyone.

Great idea, owl and looks sleek

ONS: Infection Survey pilot

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/31july2020

•	An estimated 35,700 people (95% credible interval: 23,700 to 53,200) within the community population in England had COVID-19 during the most recent week, from 20 to 26 July 2020, 
  <span class="italic">equating to around 1 in 1,500 individuals.</span>

•	<span class="italic">There is now evidence to suggest a slight increase in the number of people in England testing positive on a nose and throat swab in recent weeks.</span>

•	There is not enough evidence to say with confidence whether COVID-19 infection rates differ by region in England,
  nor whether infection rates have increased in different regions over the past six weeks.

@BigChocFrenzy That's an old report not last week, this is the latest -

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england7august2020

An estimated 28,300 people (95% credible interval: 18,900 to 40,800) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 27 July to 2 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,900 individuals.

Modelling shows rates of people testing positive for COVID-19 have risen since the lowest recorded estimate, which was at the end of June, but there is evidence that this trend may be levelling off when compared with last week’s headline estimate.

During the most recent week (27 July to 2 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.68 (95% credible interval: 0.38 to 1.17) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 3,700 new cases per day.

Explaining why ONS deaths were higher than daily govt figures,
until the PHE over-counting after 28 days recently became significant with the small numbers of COVID deaths now occuring

Office for National Statistics (ONS))@ONS*

In England,
of all deaths that occurred up to 31 July (registered up 8 August), 49,183 involved #COVID19.

For the same period, @DHSCgovuk reported 41,584 COVID-19 deaths
http://ow.ly/fkrP50AWb1E

ONS figures for date of death are based on deaths registered up to 8 August
and may increase as more deaths are registered.

@DHSCgovuk reports on date of notification and only include deaths reported up to 5pm the day before^

http://ow.ly/Ty1C50AWbhi

That’s so helpful. Yes there has been some loading issues this afternoon. I think a load of people tried to access it at the same time which it struggled with. I’m looking into it. Thanks so much for letting me know.

Thanks, Patricia I meant to take the newest but missed a click

Office for National Statistics (ONS)@ONS

For Wales,
our data show that up to 31 July (registered up to 8 August) 2,521 deaths involved ‪#COVID19‬.

For the same period

‪ @DHSCgovuk‬ figures show 1,562 COVID-19 deaths

‪*@phw*‬ reported 1,567 COVID-19 deaths

Oldham is the one to watch atm, with new cases nearly doubling to 255 in the week to 8 August
108 /100,000 population and with 5% positive tests, the UK's highest %

Note re data:
there were far fewer tests March-May, so it is the change since early July that is most relevant;
Despite the chart, Oldham cases are most unlikely to be near the April peak