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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 05/08/2020 14:48

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
56
Piggywaspushed · 12/08/2020 17:47

Can someone explain to me again this 28 day thing? If someone dies after 30 days , in hospital (let's say Kate Garraway's husband, or if Michael Rosen had died. which he nearly did) would those deaths not be counted , even if it's not 'something else'?

I don't buy this hit by a bus' stuff (that literally has NOT happened) and would like to know what these 'extra' people did die of? Couldn't some of that be impact of CV? Or not? I am just very confused. Not everyone dies of Covid in an obedient 28 day time limit, surely?

Piggywaspushed · 12/08/2020 17:50

Also.. what about the people who dies with Covid (mainly at the beginning) who weren't tested...?

Not sure if I am being a bit conspiracy theory here, so need explaining to!

boys3 · 12/08/2020 17:52

double data hit - not far short of 2000 more confirmed cases added in England

pretty much Groundhog Day, as once again a relatively small number of LAs account for a significant percentage of cases. All those adding 10 or more shown, note that the cases per 100,000 calc is purely for cases reported in the last two days.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14
boys3 · 12/08/2020 17:53

rolling seven day average and actual daily cases - again specimen date based

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14
boys3 · 12/08/2020 17:56

weekly cases, plus week on week percentage growth. again we are still below the position in mid June, and although not shown on the graph hugely below the weekly confirmed case numbers at the peak.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14
boys3 · 12/08/2020 18:00

case ratio at each decile for last 6 or so weeks through to w/e 9th Aug.

Whilst a slight increase in the figures for the lower deciles, the increases are marked at the top end, again highlighting limited number of LAs, with, most likely, a lot of testing going on, as the main driver for the increases in cases

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14
Piggywaspushed · 12/08/2020 18:03

boys where has Bedford gone? It doesn't show on your table?

MK is a new entry... it is certainly swirling around the areas north of London.

alreadytaken · 12/08/2020 18:05

@ancientgran the NHS was dealing with a novel virus. At the time it wasnt known that asymptomatic cases could still transmit the disease. So patients were considered to be safer outside hospital and sent out. I think every country has had high levels of deaths in care homes. Can I ask you what you would have done with very sick patients arriving on your doorstep unable to breath and requiring intensive support? Perhaps you'd have said, sorry go away and die in the street?

However what I was talking about was transforming theatres into intensive care units, repurposing equipment, finding new treatments - and all while large numbers of your staff are out of action either because they have the virus or because there are no tests for them or their family and they are isolating for what was not always Covid.

I doubt any business has continued to provide a normal level of service, certainly I dont know of any - and health care is more complicated than the average business because people want perfection.

Although the ONS studies have been very important they are not designed to cope with what we have now - very different levels of infection in different parts of the country.

I see Oldham as worse now than in March. We werent testing enough then but we were also going into lockdown, now we're planing the re reopening of schools. Blackburn still isnt coming down either.

The local authority page shows that only around 15 in 1000 people have had positive tests, even in the worst affected places. Even if you reckoned on 90% having it mildly (to allow for some asymptomatic in the tests) that's still likely to be short of herd immunity.

So it's being kept at a manageable level in most places but still has the potential to go out of control fast.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/08/2020 18:08

@Piggywaspushed

Can someone explain to me again this 28 day thing? If someone dies after 30 days , in hospital (let's say Kate Garraway's husband, or if Michael Rosen had died. which he nearly did) would those deaths not be counted , even if it's not 'something else'?

I don't buy this hit by a bus' stuff (that literally has NOT happened) and would like to know what these 'extra' people did die of? Couldn't some of that be impact of CV? Or not? I am just very confused. Not everyone dies of Covid in an obedient 28 day time limit, surely?

.... There needs to be some sophistication rather than a strict 28-day cutoff I have read that PHE may provide 2 numbers, with and without cutoff

In Germany, the RKI have said that within the 28 days, even victims of accident, suicide or murder with a positive test are counted as COVID (thought too few within this period to be worth not including)
but after 28 days I think there is investigation to check whether the death should count as COVID.

OP posts:
Newjez · 12/08/2020 18:12

@Piggywaspushed

Can someone explain to me again this 28 day thing? If someone dies after 30 days , in hospital (let's say Kate Garraway's husband, or if Michael Rosen had died. which he nearly did) would those deaths not be counted , even if it's not 'something else'?

I don't buy this hit by a bus' stuff (that literally has NOT happened) and would like to know what these 'extra' people did die of? Couldn't some of that be impact of CV? Or not? I am just very confused. Not everyone dies of Covid in an obedient 28 day time limit, surely?

With cancer, they give you stats like for example, "30% of people with lung cancer survive longer than five years". This doesn't mean that people died of lung cancer. They could have been hit by a bus. But it does make life a lot easier. It also means they can compare year to year, and country to country. Because everyone does cancer stats the same.

The problem with covid stats is everyone is doing them differently. Which makes comparison hard. It makes it worse when countries change the way they do their stats.

There was nothing inherently wrong with the way the UK did there stats, except that other countries did it differently, and the virus has become very political.

If we want to compare countries to see what works and what doesn't, we should all be measuring the same.

ancientgran · 12/08/2020 18:12

@alreadytaken the home where I work was asked to take someone with covid, he'd been tested, he had it and they wanted him out of the hospital. It wasn't an accident, it wasn't that they didn't know. It was deliberately trying to send an infected person into a care home.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/08/2020 18:15

The RKI has listed the probable countries where German residents were infected, for weeks 29-32
Obviously, most - over ⅔ were in Germany

High on the list are West Balkan countries, Turkey, Rumania, Bulgaria
but obviously a lot depends on how many Germans went there, rather than to Spain or France

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14
OP posts:
ancientgran · 12/08/2020 18:16

@alreadytaken Can I ask you what you would have done with very sick patients arriving on your doorstep unable to breath and requiring intensive support? Perhaps you'd have said, sorry go away and die in the street? No I would have used some of the spare capacity that hospitals had or the largely unused Nightingale Hospitals. What would you have done with an elderly person with covid? Send them into a care home to spread the infection?

They did know about asymptomatic spreading at the time I'm talking about although it wasn't relevant for the person who had been tested and proved positive.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/08/2020 18:19

The international standard is death with 28 days of a positive COVID test or diagnosis (standard cutoff for infectious diseases)
which almost every country has followed
presumably with some consideration of deaths after this

It looks like only England chose to include all deaths - the other 3 UK nations followed the 28 day cutoff

OP posts:
boys3 · 12/08/2020 18:21

@boys3

rolling seven day average and actual daily cases - again specimen date based
loading the correct file to include August might have helped. Correct graph - sorry about that Blush

obviously most recent few days likely to have more case added

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14
BigChocFrenzy · 12/08/2020 18:27

In Germany, the elderly infected from care homes were sent into some of the empty hotels, with care staff in PPE, all funded by the government

It must have been very disorienting for these frail elderly people to be in totally strange surroundings, but it was thought safer

Note: despite this disruption and despite most care homes banning visitors v early on,
this did not cause a lot of extra deaths from aggravating dementia, stress etc as has been suggested to explain high care home deaths in the UK

Total COVID deaths in German care homes were only about 3,000 and the non-COVID deaths didn't go increase much

OP posts:
Piggywaspushed · 12/08/2020 18:27

Right, OK. Thanks. I'd be happier with the sophistication you talks of.

I'd be livid if I were a relative and my partner/mum/ whatever's death didn't 'count' because it was 33 days after a +ve test.

I mean, I guess, there must be times when they can't put anything else on the certificate?

winterisstillcoming · 12/08/2020 18:28

Have they just reduced the death toll by 5000??

boys3 · 12/08/2020 18:28

@Piggywaspushed

boys where has Bedford gone? It doesn't show on your table?

MK is a new entry... it is certainly swirling around the areas north of London.

@Piggywaspushed - abducted by aliens.........then they realised what they'd done and swiftly returned it Grin

only a couple of cases added in the data file today as compared with that on the 10th

Piggywaspushed · 12/08/2020 18:31

Okeydoke!! I will look out for the aliens!

BigChocFrenzy · 12/08/2020 18:38

btw, if you see links on other threads from those downplaying COVID, it's useful to check out the links, even if the poster isn't actually ranting

Last night I found and reported yet another link to a notorious conspiracy site,
which was to a page which probably looked initially plausible as an alternative scientific pov claimed by the MN poster,
but was full of twisted cherr-picked stats and downright lies

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 12/08/2020 18:41

Histories of previous pandemics have shown that they bring out the conspiracy nuts in force - and frightened, angry people are taken in when they wouldn't be normally

OP posts:
Piggywaspushed · 12/08/2020 18:42

Well done BCF. Was it removed?

Timeforanotherusername · 12/08/2020 18:42

Yes. Death toll reduced by 5377. Wow I never thought it would be that much

AugustBreeze · 12/08/2020 18:43

Oo our area of the East Mids has dropped out of that top league, good news!
Thanks

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