Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

"meanwhile how many people in NZ have died of flu, TB, etc"

It's comparisons to flu that are ridiculous

Of course a pandemic of a "Novel" virus with nearly ¾ million deaths globally within a few months is handled differently to diseases which are very well-known with known treatments and consequences

If we look at YouGov public support in different countries

it is interesting that the governments in the UK, France, Spain & Sweden have significiantly lower support than their public health authorities,
unlike in the early stages when it was the classic "rally round the flag"

However, in most countries, support for both remains very similar

Support in the Uk for public health authorities, ie. Whitty, Vallance & co is amazingly high at this stage:
85%
It has actually increased since March, whereas the government - probably because party preferences are taking over - has fallen a lot

YouGov rolling poll:

Looking at ONS deaths to 31 July:

That was the 11th consecutive week with non-COVID deaths below the 5-year average
Effects still of lockdown and SD

Also the 7th consecutive week with Total deaths below the 5-year average,

• which they were in late Jan to start of March

2020 would normally have been a year of below-average death

Russia confirm they have the first vaccine. Calling it Sputnik as a nod to them being first in space also.

The best comment I read about children and adults spreading and using primary and secondary and college etc to describe was someone asking if Covid knows someone has celebrated their 18th!

Thank goodness some actual medical data is coming out with regards why there are differences (puberty but I'm sure we'd already discussed this with ACE2 months ago?)

Economic predeictions

Each government would (hopefully !) have considered how the economy works in their individual economy
and what they can manage,
when balancing this with public health, likely public cimpliance etc to form an overall strategy

This can vary massively between countries, depending on population density, type of economy, culture etc

NZ is predicted to have a drop in GDP of 5.5 - 7.5 % by EOY 2020
better than the Uk and most other densely populated Europen countries

https://www.nordeatrade.com/fi/explore-new-market/new-zealand/economical-context
https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/new-zealand/gdp

The UK had by far the worse contraction of the G7 in Q2, but this looks due to the later lockdown pushing timing rearwards
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/09/uk-to-fall-into-deepest-slump-on-record-with-worst-fall-in-gdp-among-g7

The Uk is predicted to improve to a 8.5-11.5% drop by EOY 2020
www.nordeatrade.com/fi/explore-new-market/united-kingdom/economical-context?vider_sticky=oui

probaly similar by then to France & better than Spain & Italy

There are less severe predictions for the Scandinavian countries - Sweden similar to the others - and Germany
all in the range of a 5.5% - 8% drop by EOY 2020

Sputnik !

Oh and countries are predicted a short V-shaped recession, with most of the GDP loss made up in 2021

I hope the Russians are telling truth (but I remain sceptical) and we see numbers drop in Russia.

Strange NZ bashing on here

Auckland is a large, well-connected, metropolitan city. Population is 1.7m - similar to Hamburg, Germany's second largest city. It's not some hick town in the "back of beyond".

Their handling of the pandemic has meant that life has returned to pretty much normal very quickly and their economy has suffered far less than those of countries who did not act as decisively.

'Locking down' (ie asking everyone who can to stay at home for a few days while they get on top of the new outbreak) seems very sensible and will likely lead to far less disruption than allowing the virus to seep into the community. It also keeps the public involved and alert.

I'm that people in the UK are criticising the actions of the NZ government.

I wasn't in my defence !I had just heard their economy had crashed and knew people on here would fact check.

I think NZ has amazing leadership.

Sorry for the rant

Where was the NZ-bashing?

Strange NZ bashing on here

I do not think it is bashing.

It is perfectly reasonable to ask questions whether the second lockdown is a sustainable strategy given that the virus eradication appears much more difficult than it might have been originally thought.

A 3 day pause sounds sensible but if it is followed by an Australian type response (extended second lockdown), it should not be surprising if the public reacts to it with less enthusiasm than they did back in March.

The country that has so far appeared to sustain the fragile balance between public health, economy and personal freedoms is Germany. Merkel's leadership in the COVID crisis has been really impressive.

It's sad to see a hiccup in the plan, but there are only 5 ways this could happen:

1. Airport issue
2. Someone suddenly infectious post-14 day quarantine
3. Quarantine centre issue
4. Hidden asymptomatic transmission for months (vanishingly unlikely)
5. Illegal immigration without quarantine (even less likely).

If it's 1 or 3, targeted testing should find a couple more cases to confirm the source in a matter of days. If it's 2 then the job is much harder. So I can see the point in a few days of lockdown to then get really specific about how this happened. My money would be on 1 or 2 given the previous quarantine issues and fixes. None of us want 2 to be true though, so let's really hope it's a process issue at the airport.

This is not to say that Jacinda Arden is not a strong leader but so far she hasn't had to face Merkel's challenges. Germany has a well funded health system but it is also at the heart of Europe and cannot pursue COVID eradication. Its only available option is "living with the virus" while aiming to keep the spread under control.

Where was the NZ-bashing?

“NZ has really crashed its economy hasn't it?”

“Auckland locking down for 4 new cases. Amazing if people aren't going to get up in arms about this.”

“Absolutely no need at NZ near-zero community level to reimpose SD measures”

“Complete elimination is not possible atm, but near-zero is achievable for sparsely populated countries at the back of beyond e.g. NZ”

“Totally ridiculous....meanwhile how many people in NZ have died of flu, TB, etc”

The top one was me and is in no way bashing. It was a question and I have explained it. I absolutely refute that as bashing! As I said, I was looking for evidence - to the contrary! It's phrased as a question! I am quite upset that you would think I was bashing.

I don't think the others are bashing (although a visitor to the thread may missed the sprit of the thread!) but, yes, a couple may have had anti lockdown agendas.

I am not one of those people; very much agree with all NZ has done. I was curious to know how this impacted their economy and the OP filled me in.

I then provided OP's stats to DH who was the one who said it to me. DH is an NZophile (made up word) having lived there for a while.

Approval of the NZ achievements certainly does not mean one thinks their strategy practical for very different countries like the UK or Germany

Living in Germany, I think Merkel has done an excellent job with calm competence,
balancing the many complex rqeuirements of a densely populated, highly industrialised country of 83 million people in Central Europe

• deaths / million comparable to locked-down Scandinavia and only ⅕ of Sweden's, with comparable GDP loss

She worked by consensus with the other main parties and the 16 German state leaders,
bringing in stakeholders like the teachers & other unions for cooperation, not confrontation.

Agree with musings on Merkel’s competence. Very level headed in a tough situation.

Do you think she could be persuaded to do an exchange term?

@NeurotrashWarrior

Do you think she could be persuaded to do an exchange term?

.... Noooooo Hands off !

The German union situation has always been so different than the UK as to not be comparable. German unions are involved in practical business aspects including coming up with solutions and it isn't adversarial on either side. In the UK, the managers start from a position of secrecy and the unions start from a point of combativeness, so it's always hard to find a middle ground. I much prefer the German system.

To be fair, imo Germany would have done well - even if not this well - if someone else had been in charge

There are a lot of capable technicrats here at national level and in the 16 regional parliaments,
who are good at making things work

technocrats