Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

My head is so foggy (health issues- not CV) i just can't focus/look objectively at figures (Or text really) & get any meaning from them anymore. (It's distressing as I had a very analytical mind).

So anyway could anyone give me the basics on how England is actually doing? I'm about an hour south of london by car If anyone has the patience to be more specific.

Thanks In advance
MJM

@MJMG2015 - thankfully there are very few cases across the South East, last week was 21 new cases in the whole of East Sussex (3.8 per 100,000 people); reporting suggests about half to one third of cases are being picked up so maybe 42 new cases in the whole county. Depending on which side you are there have been a few cases popping up in recent weeks in Crawley and Pembury/ Tonbridge, but it's a handful of cases each time. Over 3 cases in any postcode area each week will show up on this map as blue, so if you bookmark it then you can quickly check your area once every Friday: phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076.
Sorry to hear you're unwell and I hope there is a possibility of improvement for you.

What do people think about the new Russian vaccine? BBC News - Coronavirus: Putin says vaccine has been approved for use
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53735718

Seems they've found something they believe works and just skipped the usual Phase 3 trials in favour of just rolling it out. I know that's not how things are normally done but seems to me that if it does work as a vaccine, they should know pretty soon (much larger numbers being immunised will presumably show clear results more quickly that a trial?) And certainly if there are side effects those ought to be apparent quite soon, given the large numbers involved - assuming that they a) collect data on them and b) they share this with the outside world. Certainly one to watch. Are they planning to sell this vaccine to other countries does anyone know? And would anywhere else be prepared to use it with no Phase 3 trials?

It's adenovirus as a base, so similar to the Oxford vaccine. Did they borrow the idea or the actual recipe? (Safer if it's the recipe.) It's hard to comment with them releasing so little information. It'll be a different initial base of countries willing to buy it than would buy UK or US vaccines, Iran and other countries may buy it after a few months if there are no terrifying reports from Russia.

And there's no chance of b voluntarily, only rumours and information passed out through non-government sources.

@MRex - there were reports of the Russians hacking into Oxford university - so I guess possible that they have "borrowed" the recipe that way! Not a bad thing if they have as rolling that same one into general usage would surely increase the evidence base on safety (or identify any problems)? Though it might muddy things politically I guess.

Doesn't look like they want to be very open about how they got it. Once they've started giving it to people, will it be possible for someone to test the contents in a lab to identify what's in it? Or would you need the manufacturers to share information in order to know?

Just to add that as well as extremely good leadership, Germany also started from a position of a very well funded health service with plenty of hospital capacity as well as public health officials in place to carry out effective track and trace.
@BigChocFrenzy did German hospitals have to stop other routine treatment to cope with the peak in the same way as the NHS did?

I’d bet my life savings on it actually BEING the Oxford Vaccine. Very convenient that there was reports they tried to steal it not long ago. Let the Russians be the guinea pigs.

[quote MRex]@MJMG2015 - thankfully there are very few cases across the South East, last week was 21 new cases in the whole of East Sussex (3.8 per 100,000 people); reporting suggests about half to one third of cases are being picked up so maybe 42 new cases in the whole county. Depending on which side you are there have been a few cases popping up in recent weeks in Crawley and Pembury/ Tonbridge, but it's a handful of cases each time. Over 3 cases in any postcode area each week will show up on this map as blue, so if you bookmark it then you can quickly check your area once every Friday: phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076.
Sorry to hear you're unwell and I hope there is a possibility of improvement for you.[/quote]
Thank you x

I live in hope of the fog dissipating, but if anything it gets worse. It's worry for lots of reasons, but there seems little I can do about it.

When I put my post code in the map it just shows my location, but no data.i tried various postcodes of family/friends/businesses but it seems like it's 'unpopulated'.

Would you be able to give me a postcode that shows something so I have a frame of reference?

I feel pathetic & I hate it 😢

No data = less than 3 cases that week (often it may mean zero, some areas have had no cases for a while now). Search for Se24 0ad (Herne Hill, picked at random) and you'll see a couple of cases. The box will have a little arrow to say how many cases.

Message on the gov.uk data site:

"Owing to technical difficulties with data processing, deaths data for England and the UK were not updated on 11 August 2020."

Any ideas what's going on?

If it shows nothing I think that means there are less than 3 cases and the area is coloured white. They don’t want to publicise a low number of cases, I can’t quite understand why, If you click on one of the blue areas you will see some data.

No idea. I speculate these are on-site servers and it's too.l bloody hot for their climate control to keep up, so they needed to be turned off for an hour.

Or the Russians got confused and thought that's where the phase 2 data was to borrow to confirm their testing.

@TeaInTheGarden - data protection applies to live people, 1 or 2 in a postcode area could be identifying in some workplaces or schools. The same does not apply to deaths, which are public record, so that's why the death data was available before.

Okay that’s helpful, thank you.

EXCITING NEWS!!! There is a new UK gov coronavirus dashboard survey that asks for anyone willing to take part in review sessions.
Go go go Team Data!
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd0TqdEgwyT1xTtRtQmO3lkRwjv3PXIORrfZjpQ2GDQy1LkWA/formResponse

My big additional requests were for regional R rate data on the map and updated R rate in countries with quarantine exemptions. In case anyone else would find that interesting and ask too.

(There will now be an intermission on this thread.)

🧐

@fadingfast

Just to add that as well as extremely good leadership, Germany also started from a position of a very well funded health service with plenty of hospital capacity as well as public health officials in place to carry out effective track and trace. *@BigChocFrenzy* did German hospitals have to stop other routine treatment to cope with the peak in the same way as the NHS did?

.... Rationing has never been a part of the German health system and the high spare capacity enabled it to continue pretty well PPE shortages in the early days meant priority was given to hospitals, instead of the non-urgent specialities outside

Elective surgery - tummy tucks, breast reduction etc - was definitely stopped in early March until lockdown eased and I don't know if there is a backlog of that still

Ambulances etc continued with normal quick response for callouts
Treatment & operations for actual ailments like cancer, CVD etc continued throughout in hospitals

• plenty of free capacity, even in ICU remained around 40%

Prescription service at GPs continued

The regular tests for the well were stopped until lockdown eased, so annual bloods, smears, skin checks etc had to be caught up after lockdown
They resumed from mid-May - I received invitations in late May for standard tests, my 6 monthly dental check & polish too.
Backlog seems to have been caught up now

The NHS shutting off so many services is the result of choices made for many years, not particularly of lockdown

The NHS runs at full / near capcity all year, so had to shut down a lot of services to handle the large number of COVID patients
and also cope with staff absences

Lockdown didn't have to result in this and didn't for other developed countries where the health service retained sufficient capacity to continue with its day (& night) job

I think that is one of the real scandals of the UK response @BigChocFrenzy. As I understand it the NHS is only now getting on with more routine treatment and has huge backlogs. In all the (well deserved) gratitude for the NHS shown in recent months, I fear this has passed many people by when it's something I think the UK public should be absolutely furious about (I know I am!).

Agre with the nhs issue. Dd has been waiting for 3 years for a bit challenge at the local hospital.

I'm still waiting. At this rate she will be 18 and never get one.

Waited 5 months for brace adjustments

Dental checkups put back 6 months.

Can't see a doctor in real life anymore
Can't book ahead. I'm getting very fed up with it and thank god we don't have serious health issues.

NUT challenge

@MRex

No data = less than 3 cases that week (often it may mean zero, some areas have had no cases for a while now). Search for Se24 0ad (Herne Hill, picked at random) and you'll see a couple of cases. The box will have a little arrow to say how many cases.

Thank you

I can see Herne Hill is blue. I've done my address again now & the nearest 'blue area' is quite a way from here, which I'm surprised about given the local news.

That should be reassuring, but obviously that's not the presymptomatic or the asymptomatic. Plus we were told there were cases in Hampshire last week, which don't seem to appear on there. Mind I suppose even if I assume there were a few near me but not in the same 'area' it's still remarkably low, long may it last!!

What are the thoughts about England in general, are things getting better or worse?

Thank you again!

Oh no!!!
Owing to technical difficulties, the data will not be updated until 12 August 2020.