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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 05/08/2020 14:48

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
56
IceCreamSummer20 · 11/08/2020 10:55

True. There is a link to how much different jobs have physical proximity to people, and infection risk - they put teaching assistants, nurses etc at the top. Dentists scarily high. However as you say that is mitigated by more stringent PPE than a security guard has, dentists have been dealing with infection for years so have very good protocols, and more women who are less at risk etc.

www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/occupations-highest-covid19-risk/

BigChocFrenzy · 11/08/2020 11:21

The ONS has listed occupations with risk

Some occupations have higher or lower risks even accounting for age, sex, ethniity etc

We know that public-facing jobs have higher risk with a respiratory virus
but frontline health staff in many countries have reduced their risk to only average risk, because of wearing medical-grade PPE

OP posts:
Reastie · 11/08/2020 11:28

I lurk regularly on this and find it very useful and my go to for the actual stats and facts.

There’s a lot of talk about measures being effective so long as community transmission is low. What are people thinking of as low community transmission? And at what point do we become worried about the transmission level? This is what I’m unsure of.

Also, does anyone know what the level needs to be for a local lockdown to be triggered? Is there an actual figure or do they just make it up as they go along and see what they think when they are there?

wintertravel1980 · 11/08/2020 11:37

Remember the risk of the job in those stats is just correlation, the risk of the job has not been causally identified, there's just correlation.

ONS analysis has adjusted for two primary factors that may skew the results - age and sex.

Based on other studies while ethnicity or BMI do impact individual risk of COVID, they are nowhere as significant as the first two factors.

Piggywaspushed · 11/08/2020 11:38

I know my area is teetering at 16 per 100000. There are areas lower than that in lockdown mind. Usually because of proximity to other areas.

wintertravel1980 · 11/08/2020 11:43

Suppressing COVID is not easy. From the Guardian:

After 102 days New Zealand has its first cases of Covid-19 outside of a managed isolation or quarantine facility, Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister, has just told reporters in a late-night news conference.

There are four confirmed cases of Covid-19 in one family in New Zealand’s largest city, Auckland. The family had not traveled from overseas and the source of the infection is unknown.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/08/2020 11:47

As with all groups, you can find a few scientists who agree with the whackiest theories

  • e.g. Trump found one who rants about "extra-terrestrial material in medications" and "demon seed" in supporting the fantasy about COVID being a hoax.

I was initially v interested in USforThem, as I've always been in favour of prioritising school return

However, many seem to be pushing a particular alt-right ideology of Social Darwinism, being completely opposed to any measures whatsoever in school or society to protect the vulnerable

Their real agenda is claiming that COVID is a sinister government hoax; schools are just a useful recruiting tool
They are very aggressive & authoritarian in threatening parents & teachers who want any precautions to keep schools open

They often spout the childish "muzzle / face nappies" too, which immediately makes me stop taking any poster seriously

OP posts:
MarshaBradyo · 11/08/2020 11:47

That is pretty big. Wonder how they got it.

MarshaBradyo · 11/08/2020 11:47

Re NZ

BigChocFrenzy · 11/08/2020 11:53

Once COVID is down to v low community level, it is much easier to squash local outbreaks - which would be much fewer & smaller too

Complete elimination is not possible atm, but near-zero is achievable for sparsely populated countries at the back of beyond
e.g. NZ can easily deal with the v v occasional cases they are likely to keep getting by immediate t&t and v precise targetting & isolation of those affected

Absolutely no need at NZ near-zero community level to reimpose SD measures

That kind of level is completely impractical as an aim for a densely populated country like the UK,
with a "world city" like London and so many essential international connections

OP posts:
alreadytaken · 11/08/2020 11:54

With regard to the church cluster - maybe their children walked home alone but I'd imagine some were driven home by adults/ picked up from the church by their parents. It's not as simple as saying the child infected their parents, although they may have done.

Supermarket floor workers are often late teens or early twenties and like all young people think nothing will ever harm them. They are also likely to be affected by peer pressure. Younger people are lower risk but they are not immune, a few do die and they have a right to be protected, even if it from their own lack of thought. Their managers are likely to be older and need more protection.

We clapped for all the key workers and we sterilised bin handles/ door bells/ letterbox flaps. Not as vigorous with that now because most surfaces are not a high risk (metal and plastic worse than soft things), and in this weather viable virus is unlikely to be present outdoors after a very short time.

If schools made the 6th form wear masks - and they should, at least in high incidence areas - it would be seen as "cool" and younger children would probably copy.

There are 2 bits of evidence that would make me support masks in secondary school - graphs suggest that high incidence areas control outbreaks faster when they test children and that masks are actually working in reducing infection. Neither statement is very soundly based but we should operate on less than perfect evidence with a highly infectious virus.

LarkDescending · 11/08/2020 11:56

New Zealand has imposed immediate Level 3 lockdown on Auckland and Level 2 precautions for the rest of the country.

tobee · 11/08/2020 11:57

Auckland locking down for 4 new cases. Amazing if people aren't going to get up in arms about this.

tobee · 11/08/2020 11:57

X post

LarkDescending · 11/08/2020 11:58

Correction: NZ’s Level 3 is restrictions (Level 4 being lockdown):

covid19.govt.nz/covid-19/restrictions/alert-system-overview/#alert-level-2-—-reduce

Piggywaspushed · 11/08/2020 12:04

That's my problems with them too BCF although I feel that is an infiltration, rather than the founders. They also don't seem to have a grasp of the research and their focus is primaries. They have a missionary zeal that I find a bit sinister. It's actually quite hard to laugh them off.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/08/2020 12:10

NZ level 2 is v mild:
e.g. limits of 100 people, 1m SD
I like the way the triggers and measures are so clearly laid out in that NZ govt link

Government popularity & trust is v high there, which seems to be what happens with a clear government strategy, openness & honesty
We see the 2 extremes of policy in NZ and Sweden - both with much higher public support than in most other countries
Government conduct - and past record - really matter in a public health crisis
They determine the level of compliance & acceptance

OP posts:
GermanSausage · 11/08/2020 12:10

@tobee

Auckland locking down for 4 new cases. Amazing if people aren't going to get up in arms about this.
Totally ridiculous....meanwhile how many people in NZ have died of flu, TB, etc etc
MarshaBradyo · 11/08/2020 12:11

What kind of financial support does NZ do for lockdown?

Piggywaspushed · 11/08/2020 12:13

All the big supermarket floorworkers in my town are women in their 50s. Teenagers are in Waitrose and in smaller supermarkets.

Piggywaspushed · 11/08/2020 12:13

NZ has really crashed its economy hasn't it?

MarshaBradyo · 11/08/2020 12:16

@Piggywaspushed

NZ has really crashed its economy hasn't it?
I’m not sure. But it’d be interesting to know the economic ramifications.
wintertravel1980 · 11/08/2020 12:16

Supermarket floor workers are often late teens or early twenties and like all young people think nothing will ever harm them.

Hmmm... the supermarket workers at my nearby Sainsbury's (London Zone 3) are primarily women in their 50-60s. I often chat to them because they all know my DD (she is the loudest child I have ever seen and, unfortunately, doesn't go unnoticed). The security guards are males in their 50s.

Most of them do not wear masks. They are not trying to be "cool" - it is their conscious decision.. They did not have PPE or plexiglass protection during the peak of the pandemic in March. They finally got PPE in April, tried to wear it and decided not to bother. Most of them are convinced they were either exposed to COVID or had it and were able to recover. One lady is still having long term fatigue but, apparently, she is now getting better day by day.

It is just one specific example but I find the suggestion that these people need to be "educated" and "protected" slightly patronising. Most of them know much more about the pandemic than an average working-from-home / furloughed customer who has been viewing his/her weekly trip to the supermarket as a highly risky and dangerous undertaking.

tobee · 11/08/2020 12:20

This is why aiming for zero Covid here seems a little fanciful.

LarkDescending · 11/08/2020 12:42

There was concern in NZ about a possibly locally-acquired case in late July. A young South Korean man living in Auckland flew to Seoul on 21 July (after travelling widely around NZ) and was diagnosed with Covid soon after his arrival. Lots of extra testing of asymptomatic New Zealanders was carried out but nothing was found at the time.