Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

the full file at coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about-data#legacy-csv-downloads now looks to have been fully updated, missing counties returned to the fold

I wonder who the information manager is who took this on a few months ago, it's getting better by the day; even if the roll-out of data takes a little time, if we're patient it turns up, but the charts and stats keep improving. I gave some feednack early on in the beta version and the change was made, probably not just me on that point, but still... I like them. I don't always like the figures, but I do like to know what's going on.

For anyone interested in state level analysis for US -this is extremely comprehensive, with data and advice per state. Only issue is that it's about 2 weeks old now, but still interesting I think -

int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/states-report-virus-response-july-26/e241189157b34378/full.pdf

I am wondering whether today's cases are so high due to a delay in result, particularly as yesterday's were lower than expected. As someone mentioned above it is usually day -2 that the majority of results are from but certainly for my city the majority of today's reported cases are from Thursdays samples. If you actually look at at yesterday and today together it doesn't look quite as bad.

8 deaths reported but 10 in hospitals?

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-9-August-2020.xlsx

[quote MillicentMartha]8 deaths reported but 10 in hospitals?

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-9-August-2020.xlsx[/quote]
Because the PHE number was actually negative today - it happens ever so often, when they reconcile data against NHS deaths and find that some have been double counted. So they issue a negative number....

It was a day when PHE took out some duplicate deaths which resulted in a negative number (-2).

That’s confusing, but thanks, Patricia.

One of the NHS deaths announced today actually happened on 10th April - 121 days ago, I wonder if that’s a record lag!

(Two others were from the beginning of July).

@Proudpeacock

I am wondering whether today's cases are so high due to a delay in result, particularly as yesterday's were lower than expected. As someone mentioned above it is usually day -2 that the majority of results are from but certainly for my city the majority of today's reported cases are from Thursdays samples. If you actually look at at yesterday and today together it doesn't look quite as bad.

For England the cases added today breakdown as having specimen dates:

Day 0 - Today : Zero (as per usual given the reporting cut off)
Day -1 - Sat 8th : 12 cases
Day -2 - Fri 7th : 354 cases
Day -3 - Thu 6th : 393 cases (v unusual for the Day -3 cases number to be higher than Day -2, so does look like some possible delayed reporting)
Day -4 - Weds 5th : 93 cases
Day -5 - Tues 4th : 40 cases
Day -6 - Mon 3rd : 24 cases
Day -7 Sun 2nd : 56 cases (Day -7 cases rarely that high)
Day -8 Sat 1st : 6 cases

then a further 27 cases with July specimen date, and a net reduction of 17 for specimen dates going back to early March.

Once again a significant percentage of the cases added today come from a quite limited number of local authority areas. In terms of cases per 100,000 highest 25 shown- and include few if any surprises.

As an additional context 112 local authorities added zero cases to today's figure.

I find that it is better to see the 7 day rolling figures as day figures can be confusing and a bit erratic because of the delay etc. However the trends upwards or downwards I find quite useful.

I think it was here and I can't find it.

Does anyone have the linked to the government guidance that satiated about HSE investigating if someone dies of Covid in a school and the school may be found liable?

Schools aren't exempt from Riddor reporting (I just checked), so they would need to report cases for teachers (not children) to HSE as well as PHE if there is good reason to believe the teachers caught it at school: www.hse.gov.uk/coronavirus/riddor/index.htm.

Thanks but that wasn't the document.

There was one written like all the guidance that someone linked to that mentioned about requesting reporting any deaths and then went on about liability.

I'm just wondering about Gavin Williamson's statement this morning that there is no real evidence that the virus is transmitted in schools.
What does everyone here think? I can't understand why schools would be somehow immune to spread.

@EducatingArti

I'm just wondering about Gavin Williamson's statement this morning that there is no real evidence that the virus is transmitted in schools. What does everyone here think? I can't understand why schools would be somehow immune to spread.

On R4 it said he’d seen evidence that says this

I took note as I wondered what he had read.

www.gov.uk/guidance/steps-to-take-following-the-death-of-a-colleague-in-childrens-services

I think.... that there are 5000 other threads about schools, as well as pages of conversation on this thread a little further back, and diverting this one onto schools again without new info won't add to the debate. I also think there is a group of users who are actively trying to stir up anxiety, because the typical school thread begins with someone stating they, their colleagues and all the children at school had covid in March, and now they're worried to go back without PPE.

@MRex

I think.... that there are 5000 other threads about schools, as well as pages of conversation on this thread a little further back, and diverting this one onto schools again without new info won't add to the debate. I also think there is a group of users who are actively trying to stir up anxiety, because the typical school thread begins with someone stating they, their colleagues and all the children at school had covid in March, and now they're worried to go back without PPE.

I agree on stirring and think one poster has made up a situation on another thread to induce anxiety in posters.

But if GW has evidence I’d like to see it. Although saw on another thread out later this year.

@MRex
I'm not wanting to open up the schools debate more generally. I'm interested in the stats and research and I'm wondering about what Gavin Williamson has said.
People on this thread are so knowledgeable about the stats and research, so that's why I am specifically interested in their thoughts. I'm aware of Korean research showing teenagers spreading Covid as much as adults but wondered if others had come across research showing something else.

Research and scientific comment about children/ schools from the US, calling into question the notion that schools will be safe:

Prof Hanage of Harvard - we don’t know about schools, basically (a long webinar but lots of interesting points, not just about schools):
www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/coronavirus-covid-19-press-conference-with-bill-hanage-07-15-20/

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article
Children have just as much RNA as adults

This article balances a lot of the available information quite well: www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks.

I only know this Sage modelling report: s0257-sage-sub-group-modelling-behavioural-science-relaxing-school-closures-sage30.pdf.

The main take-away to be is that it works fine when infections are low enough in the community. None of the teacher threads address the proportionally different risks in areas of no / minimal infections versus say Bradford. If teachers were campaigning that local rates should be under 10/100,000 for schools to be open normally then I could understand it, but any mention about case volume gets drowned out.

Thankyou! Yes it was that one. You

I don't think we can and should exclude schools discussion.

Not when it's talking about wanting evidence for statements made by minters relating to covid.

Or we'd have to exclude talking about any working environment or public environment and decisions made based on apparent evidence and refuse to discuss the science.