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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 05/08/2020 14:48

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
56
whatsnext2 · 09/08/2020 15:35

All virus show some seasonality and C19 is no different to other coronavirus in mainly transmitting by droplets so less effective in warm dry conditions and when people less likely to be indoors together

Behaviour changes like social distancing also reduced R.

Vulnerable and highly exposed pockets got infected early and either recovered or sadly died

Certain proportion of population has cross immunity leading to reduced symptoms

ChristmasinJune · 09/08/2020 15:36

@itsgettingweird

How do those increased results compare to testing numbers? (Site isn't updated yet).

We had another area added to lockdown yesterday so I would imagine there's been increased targeted testing in that area and perhaps they've pulled out cases?

Will be watching closely the overall figures for the next week or 2.

When does the watch list by area get released?

There's this

apple.news/ACkk8J7_jQB6aM6VEuURQrw

PatriciaHolm · 09/08/2020 15:36

Testing appears about the same as it has been, more details on dashboard later but Gov site has an indication (it's never quite the same as the dashboard).

Will need to see dashboard to see where these are in terms of whether it looks like more testing in specific areas, and which days those cases apply to.

The watch list is in the PHE surveillance report published once a week (latest was Friday). That said I'm sure local authorities are keeping an eye Day to Day.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2020 15:43

Grim milestone for Brazil - > 100,000 official deaths

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/brazil-covid-19-deaths-natalia-pasternak-bolsonaro

OP posts:
MRex · 09/08/2020 15:46

Hmmm, can't get the filters to deliver sensible results, there hasn't been anywhere near as much testing as I would have thought.

PrayingandHoping · 09/08/2020 16:01

@MarcelineMissouri

Over 1000 new cases today ShockSad
Gov website says 758....??

Where did u read over 1000?

boys3 · 09/08/2020 16:03

@BigChocFrenzy

I wasn't expecting that many test results at the WE, but maybe actual tests are from Friday ?
that is just the reporting lag, the confirmed numbers always start pretty much from Reporting day -2; so in today's figure we are likely to the see the bulk, for England at least, have specimen dates from last Friday, plus further catch ups from last Thursday and Wednesday, and the usual tidying beyond that.
PrayingandHoping · 09/08/2020 16:04

Now it's changed again!!! They changed it to storage date and time and not the numbers.... website glitch obv

1062

PrayingandHoping · 09/08/2020 16:04

Today's date and time even...

MarcelineMissouri · 09/08/2020 16:04

@PrayingandHoping that’s yesterday’s number I think. Gov website definitely says 1062 for today

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14
PrayingandHoping · 09/08/2020 16:07

@MarcelineMissouri does now. They updated the date and time but not the numbers to start with.... 🤦🏼‍♀️

Cloudburstagain · 09/08/2020 16:09

I looked on the Gov site but could not see the rolling 7 day averages for cases and deaths etc - has anyone else seen them?

PatriciaHolm · 09/08/2020 16:18

@Cloudburstagain

I looked on the Gov site but could not see the rolling 7 day averages for cases and deaths etc - has anyone else seen them?
They are the line on the graphs - mouse over the line and it will give you the number -

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

PatriciaHolm · 09/08/2020 16:19

(it's only for Nations and regions for deaths, not UK)

MRex · 09/08/2020 16:26

8 deaths

Cloudburstagain · 09/08/2020 16:30

Thank you.

sirfredfredgeorge · 09/08/2020 16:41

*The short-term mortality impacts of the lockdown-induced recession are estimated to be 4,500 fewer excess deaths (equivalent to 30,000 gained QALYs) occurring within a year of the lockdown;

these are expected to come from an estimated reduction in the number of fatalities due to a reduction in cardiovascular diseases, dementias and respiratory diseases*

How does dementia reduce via lockdown? Lockdown is social isolation, social isolation has a large correlation with dementia? Or is that just a bad way of saying, dementia patients were heavily hit by covid excess deaths so we'll have fewer for now?

This is where I think the real differences with Sweden might be seen, recession was happening everywhere regardless, but the question is has Sweden avoided the social isolation and metabolic health disorders in everyone else. On the later particularly I wish we had more data on how much physical exercise people actually got, and the distributions of how much weight people actually put on.

alreadytaken · 09/08/2020 16:58

Sorry Boris and Dominic - Sweden is not your get out clause , the real reason it's coming up so much now. Some organisers of major events called them off before you did anything, you could have done the same. And as discussed here many people do not think Sweden's approach gave good results.

We have also had outbreaks from poor working practises in sweatshops and poor housing for the migrant workers you've encouraged. There have also been outbreaks in meat factories AFTER it was known these were a problem.

PatriciaHolm · 09/08/2020 17:03

The short-term mortality impacts of the lockdown-induced recession are estimated to be 4,500 fewer excess deaths (equivalent to 30,000 gained QALYs) occurring within a year of the lockdown;
these are expected to come from an estimated reduction in the number of fatalities due to a reduction in cardiovascular diseases, dementias and respiratory diseases

The report goes on to say this is because of "healthier lifestyles in the short term" - because of recession. There are a number of studies that link recession to (short term) reduced mortality - reduced obesity, reduced smoking, increased physical activity. Of course in the longer term there are negative affects, particularly around mental health and worsening health inequalities.

It's worth flagging that this report - all 188 pages of it! - is, explicitly, a modelling exercise and not a forecasting one. It's core "Covid Static Scenario" is a model based on a continuing level of 900 deaths a week from June 20 to March 21, for example.

In fact for the section discussed here, it says -

"This section estimates the wider morbidity and mortality impacts of the COVID-19-related ‘lockdown’ and the resulting recession. All of these estimates are based on arbitrary, purely illustrative, assumptions (see below for details), and therefore their reliability and robustness are considered to be very low. "

boys3 · 09/08/2020 18:17

definitely some issues with case data today - hopefully the overall figure is correct, however from the main data file that can be downloaded

  • fewer rows than yesterday - always a clue that something maybe amiss!!!

Lincolnshire - four days in March showing then no cases since

No data for North Yorks, Northants, Notts, Oxfordshire, Suffolk, Somerset or Staffs.

Looks to be data for the constituent district of each - only checked one (Newark & Sherwood with the outbreak at a food factory) and that seems to have cases updated as compared to yesterday.

However Surrey looks to have data, so not an alphabetical thing with County Councils.

Derbygerbil · 09/08/2020 19:03

@sirfredfredgeorge

...but the question is has Sweden avoided the social isolation and metabolic health disorders in everyone else.

I believe Sweden did advise over 70s to isolate similar to here. It’s a myth that Sweden carried on regardless.

IceCreamSummer20 · 09/08/2020 19:14

@MRex I also really agree with this, the competition amongst some countries - but not all of them. I see the better countries are the ones who are not shouting about how well they’ve done. NZ isn’t bigging itself up, nor is South Korea, Germany, Norway, Greece or Argentina. Sweden, the UK, US and Brazil are some of the worst and are constantly saying how their way is the best. At least in the UK we’ve stopped saying this now. It’s a good sign.

One of the things that most struck me when I read the early SAGE minutes is how we in the UK were paying no attention to other countries. At a time when there were open letters from medics and public health officials from Italy, very moving and passionate letters, to the rest of Europe saying ‘please lockdown now’, SAGE did not even mention Italy, or South Korea, or Hong Kong, anywhere else and what could be learned. Nothing.

It is a shame as this is the one time we can really learn from the rest of the world. However we shouldn’t be too pessimistic. For example most scientists, researchers are making their findings public, open and shared - they are all collaborating country to country. It is more the political/business end that is voicing top dog.

IceCreamSummer20 · 09/08/2020 19:20

Did anyone read one positive aspect of lockdown in the Ireland and Denmark - just for some good news - there have been significantly less premature births?
www.rcm.org.uk/news-views/rcm-opinion/2020/a-reduction-in-premature-births-during-covid-19/

Cause is unknown. As domestic violence, poverty and stress are risks for preterm babies - and have been reported during lockdown. Perhaps for some women there has been more rest, less daily stress (like daily commute), possible less pollution factor.

IceCreamSummer20 · 09/08/2020 19:26

@BigChocFrenzy it is a very sad day for Brazil. Sad

MRex · 09/08/2020 19:47

I had DS just a couple of years ago and worked from home exclusively the last 2 months because I couldn't face the commuting. London is probably worse than Dublin, but with summer train strike it was taking 2.5 hours one way some days (bladder!!!), multiple trains with crowds to negotiate or having to walk a way, and having to ask for a seat (even then a few times didn't get one...). I'm lucky that I'm self-employed, so clients had to suck it up and come to me or video-call, it would have been awful to feel I had to go in. I can well believe that working from home would make an immense difference to stress levels in later pregnancy. I'm all about equality, but pregnant women can be more vulnerable than many appreciate.