Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

[quote EducatingArti]@MRex
I'm not wanting to open up the schools debate more generally. I'm interested in the stats and research and I'm wondering about what Gavin Williamson has said.
People on this thread are so knowledgeable about the stats and research, so that's why I am specifically interested in their thoughts. I'm aware of Korean research showing teenagers spreading Covid as much as adults but wondered if others had come across research showing something else.[/quote]
The recent ECDC report said that there were few cases of transmission within schools - and that is what most people are quoting and most newspapers. It is unclear and mixed. I imagine that is what Gavin Williamson refers to as many were waiting for the ECDC report which summarised findings.

I think debate on evidence and numbers on schools is hugely relevant at the moment so I would not be of the view that it should be ignored on this thread. I’d say that also particularly because there is anxiety and other threads. This thread seems very focused on trying to be factual and measured which is a good place for it too. Although I understand many other numbers need to have room for discussion.

Not for this teacher MRex; I feel relatively ok at the mo (I'm clinically vulnerable) simply because I know the rates are very low in my own area. And I've repeatedly pointed out that it's the issue and impact of local case numbers that affects the ability of a school to remain open.

Studies on schools have been done when pupil and staff numbers were low and there were very high rates of compliance, cleaning and more measures in the community.

Data is only relevant in those contexts; studies are being done going forward.

Point 6, the sKID study. Started June, ongoing through autumn.

Unless there's research they've not linked here.

www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-paediatric-surveillance

More info here:

www.gov.uk/government/news/study-launched-to-monitor-prevalence-of-covid-19-in-schools

*Public Health England’s (PHE) study will add to data on antibody and virus prevalence already being collected through national surveillance programmes and other nationwide studies, which report weekly.

The initial phase will collect data from up to 100 schools from across England, including 15 schools in London, with results available over the summer. We are targeting around 200 staff and children at each school.

Data will be fed back to inform a potential second phase study in September.*

Using Manchester too:

research.cmft.nhs.uk/news-events/more-than-600-greater-manchester-school-children-and-teachers-participate-in-national-research-monitoring-prevalence-of-covid-19

The Skid is useful but it is only surveillance of prevalence and not an analysis of cluster cases and how much there is child to child / teacher transmission.

@itsgettingweird - I appreciate that, but it's clear in the news articles that the PHE report hasn't been released, so there isn't data to examine. Apologies, it was just frustration that nothing else can be discussed because it takes over page after page. Someone tried noting the care home report findings that I thought merited follow-up given the risk nature, I tried responding, but it's all lost pages ago now because of so many posts about schools that don't include anything new.

perhaps the answer is to have a separate schools data thread. However my understanding is that there is not actually a lot of data.

Teachers are mostly under 60 - they should focus on 1. getting rates down everywhere and 2. being allowed to wear at least face shields in class.

and (as in germany) :

3. the most vulnerable teachers being allowed to WFH
   It looks about 3% of teachers WFH here, so about the right % to be equivalent of former UK shielded ?

4. Masks in secondary for corridors and other tight places

5. Optional masks in the classroom for staff and students who want them (and provide their own)
   If reading lips are an issue, one of the staff at the cafe where I go has a transparent mask, which looks a tight enough fit

It would be good to have defined amber and red levels,
where amber means say pubs etc have to be closed
and red is the ermergency fallback of blended learning (which we hope won't be needed)

We have a set of criteria here for amber & red, set by government, which will activate certain contingency plans for increased SD (not just for schools)

They tried the amber/red stuff before ( the famous Nandos thing!). They dropped it when it wasn't showing what they wanted.

At secondary level I don't actually think blended learning is so awful. But there is no plan B and so no sensible or thoughtful planning has gone into what blended learning looks like. So, if it does have to happen, it will be a shambles. Which might well be helpful tot he whole narrative : who knows!

I have felt this is the right place to discuss school data as it feels a 'safe place'. Any other threads get very quickly derailed and sidetracked by a couple of different camps. I welcome BCF and others' analysis of these stats. Interestingly , when BCF appears on other more general schools threads, she is treated very differently form the way she is on here.

Btw , Gavin's evidence is the as yet unpublished, because incomplete PHE surveillance study.

I just wanted to come on and thank you all for all the research, facts and data-led discussion. I've been reading these threads since the start and they are so useful.

Does anyone know when France release their daily case numbers? We are trying to work out what's going to happen there so that we can get re-planning our holiday super quick if it's taken off the safe lists.

Well, piggy here we are data-driven
On other threads, when I supply data to burst an ideological fantasy, it doesn't always go down well

I used to have to keep stating the tiny number of deaths for children
Now for weeks I keep trying to correct the denialism of adult COVID deaths

ECDC reports France 14-day incidence = 26.0 / 100,000
The UK has 16.5

I haven't read if the UK has a particular 1-day or 14-day limit when it comes to quarantine

France dashboard is here, with all regions, but looks a bit old - maybe they don't update over the WE, or is there a newer version ?

dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA

The 2,288 new cases seem to be from 7 Aug
and are quite a jump from 1,602 on 6 Aug on previous page

The Uk was 1,062 yesterday

[quote MRex]@itsgettingweird - I appreciate that, but it's clear in the news articles that the PHE report hasn't been released, so there isn't data to examine. Apologies, it was just frustration that nothing else can be discussed because it takes over page after page. Someone tried noting the care home report findings that I thought merited follow-up given the risk nature, I tried responding, but it's all lost pages ago now because of so many posts about schools that don't include anything new.[/quote]
But there are data from other studies that will have implications for schools and I'm interested in how these fit ( or not) with Williamson's statement about the PHE study.

Spain and France never update on weekends

apolgies if already posted as I tend to skip schools discussion - but the best study is possibly the Korean one www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html

@MRex

Spain and France never update on weekends

... Useful to know

I'm concerned that the PHE study seems to have been done in June when students in schools were bubbled in small groups and better able to distance in classrooms and very vulnerable staff were shielding. This seem very different to what will be happening in September. Do people think this will give data relevant to a full school return? Are there any studies about transmission with larger numbers of students in a class and less social distancing? I don't know of any though

Sweden had lower rates of antibodies in under 20s - but as people dont always develop antibodies in mild infection I didnt consider that useful. I guess it may be one piece of information the government is looking at though.

Oh and thank you @ NeurotrashWarrior and @alreadytaken for your links. The Korean study is the best one I know of also.

French study suggesting adults transmit to children, rather than the other way around. So it's the parents and other teachers that you need to worry about. Some teachers will love a reason to keep parents out of school.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/school-children-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows

@BigChocFrenzy

ECDC reports France 14-day incidence = 26.0 / 100,000 The UK has 16.5

I haven't read if the UK has a particular 1-day or 14-day limit when it comes to quarantine

France dashboard is here, with all regions, but looks a bit old - maybe they don't update over the WE, or is there a newer version ?

dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA

The 2,288 new cases seem to be from 7 Aug
and are quite a jump from 1,602 on 6 Aug on previous page

The Uk was 1,062 yesterday

Thank you... will watch closely