Predicted 2nd wave

[Pixxie7]

So they are predicting a 2nd wave twice as big as the first at the beginning of December if the track and trace system isn’t improved. Do you think the government has learnt anything?

But one pub never does??

For whatever reasons, journalists love writing about pubs and beaches/parks even though (i) the risk for beaches/parks is very close to zero and (ii) while pubs do appear riskier than schools, the numbers are still much smaller than for other major sources of transmission (household contacts or work environment).

And are you actually advocating 11 year olds staying at home alone 8/9 hours a day for the foreseeable?

At least they're not being packed off to the countryside like during the war.

How did we get to this point where parents feel entitled to hand their children to the state five days a week?

I know, what on earth were the Victorians thinking of, bringing in universal education. They should be ashamed of themselves.

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/boucherville-cases-day-camp-1.5666352

There ahs also been a language camp in Spain (not surprisingly) with outbreaks.

And,as a follow up :

montreal.ctvnews.ca/nearly-20-secondary-cases-of-covid-19-linked-to-boucherville-day-camp-bringing-total-cases-to-46-1.5046839

Interesting so Japan no child cases because the 3yo up are wesring masks.
Do they wear them at playgrounds etc too.

Also even if in switzerland most are household (they would be anyway due to contact time and ease of tracing (a bit like a murder suspect). But even if 0.3% are in say schools that is because
children are asymptomatic so how would you test them at the right time?
Our schools are huge so it wouldnt be t&t to work it's shutting down whole classes.
And 27% of 4 is 1 person but 0.3% of 1000 secondary contacts is 3 i think. Then each of those infected people have 1000 contacts as we arent shutting (plus the family contacts).
Even at primary my dc will have contact with 90+ kids at least. And the class will between them have contact with 400+ school.
There are apparently 8m children.

Yes, my school or head said that it was going to be a couple of cases within a time frame in a bubble or year group and then the whole class/ bubble/ year group would be off for 2 weeks BUT working under PHE advice who would make the ultimate decision. As there could be siblings at local Schools and other cases there for example. So it's not a straight forward as a formula.

The impact on working parents is going to be immense. Including how that will impact teachers with children and their schools / classes.

Hence why the idea of reducing other things like pubs etc or only serving outdoors is being floated a lot to counter community transmission.

Keepdistance
Interesting so Japan no child cases because the 3yo up are wesring masks.

I absolutely did not say that! I have read through the details of the almost 200 cases in my cities and very few have involved children. There have been several clusters involving bars and drinking establishments. I don't know why this is, but nationally they have found that cases among those under 20 are much lower than any other age demographic. There have been cases involving primary school children and younger, but they are rare.

Do they wear them at playgrounds etc too.

Yes, they do wear masks in the playground, but not during PE. Of course younger kids often pull them off or wear them under their noses, but they are encouraged to wear them properly. I don't know effective masks are against covid-19

Japan is incredibly hygiene oriented anyway too though. Masks are part of a wider habit of hygiene and organisation they have there.

Karaoke bars? Singing? I've been and they were fun but I can see how good they are for transmission!

I suppose my main point isn’t “Isn’t Japan wonderful” and more that I think that if the UK follows a similar pattern to Japan, then I don’t think kids returning to school is a huge problem that will start a second wave. Meeting up with friends for drinks and also traveling are the real problems. We’ve had literally dozens of clusters related to bars and pubs and also traveling to a different parts of japan. I’m not saying there have been zero cases in schools, just not very many at all.

Thanks, Piggy, I haven''t known about this case.

If I understand correctly, there were 27 initial cases among "children and staff" (the age of children has not been specified) and subsequent 19 cases among "secondary household contacts". We cannot necessarily assume that "children infected their parents". It will be useful to have more detail on secondary transmissions.

The rate of transmission from children to adults is not zero (especially for children over 11) but most studies seem to suggest that on a relative basis the risk might be 50% lower than for transmissions between adults.

Yes, a big cluster at a hostess bar in the next city over also over a dozen students infected after a drinking party last week. People get drunk, they are talking in each other’s faces, not washing hands properly. You could say these problems are unique to Japan, but looking at the UK news it seems you are having the same problems over there.

I guess you can say that I don’t agree with the logic of let’s open pubs but keep schools closed.

Winter the children's ages were in one article I read. They were mostly around 8 to 11 iirc. The workers were 16 and 17. There were some privacy issues around household contacts but mainly parents and siblings. A longer article gave more detail but I can't find it now.

They gave grants to 11 local councils in the first instance to run pilot track and test schemes. That was the end of May though.

I don't know what happened/ is happening thereafter.

I joined the Zoe monitoring app and I'm trying to encourage the young adults I know to do it too.

It could be another useful early warning system if enough people would participate.

(And it's a daily reminder of the symptoms
to watch out for too.)

Yes, they do wear masks in the playground, but not during PE.

No masks outdoors in most of the schools I am familiar with. Most have told the kids specifically not to wear them outside because of the August heat.

Re the idea that it's okay for secondary school kids to be left unsupervised for hours on end:

This is fine if the question is, "Is it safe to leave them?"
But it won't do, if the idea is that they are supposed to be getting on with their education. Few young teens will be consistently on-task for hours with no supervision. The only way this would work would be if EVERY family had appropriate devices and internet access and schools were doing full-on days of live teaching, which is not going to happen outside the private sector.

Heard today that the Nightingale Hospital was actually built for the second wave.

Indeed. I strongly feel that the role of the state should be to provide education facilitated by qualified teachers. Not to provide childcare. Otherwise we end up going in the direction we’ve been heading, where quality of education declines due to under-funding, and it ends up being mainly a holding pen for children so parents can work.

If you actually want education to be better funded, you might want to consider that the funding for education comes from taxpayers, many of whom are also parents. You keep going on about evil entitled parents demanding to "hand their children over" to the state for "childcare" so that they can do self-indulgent things like hold down a job--where do you think tax monies actually come from? Mass economic collapse is not going to do pretty things to school budgets. Education is going to be gutted in the years to come, even as things are.

Told this by someone involved in the construction of the building.

don’t think kids returning to school is a huge problem that will start a second wave. Meeting up with friends for drinks and also traveling are the real problems.

The lancet research and modelling that's generated these reports is saying that schools alone won't start the second wave, but with the other eased measures and low track and trace effectiveness together they will. And the modelling showed different timescales depending on full or part time opening.

Schools will go back fully open but they won't be able to stay open^^ without excellent track and trace and lower numbers.

From new scientist:
Coronavirus: Second wave hits Asia as global cases continue to soar via the New Scientist app https://www.newscientist.com/article/2249982-coronavirus-second-wave-hits-asia-as-global-cases-continue-to-soar/

It's subscription only unfortunately but I just have a hollow laugh:

How did we get to this point where parents feel entitled to hand their children to the state five days a week?

The 1944 Education Act

What the hell do you think schools are, other than for the education of the states workforce and to ensure workers (who since the start of the industrial revolution were not going to be homed based) to have somewhere for kids to go in the day (after they established they couldn’t work in factories). Education put them somewhere until they were old enough to work.

Due to wage stagnation most families need to be dual income now.