Things not looking great in Trafford

[randomer]

According to The Guardian. My guess is affluent party goers returning home to middle aged parents?

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/coronavirus-80-new-cases-trafford-among-white-community

I thought lockdown was supposed to be about making sure the NHS isn't overwhelmed. Hospitals are not at capacity, death rates haven't increased. The increased infections registered are due to increased testing. I think people (not just in Trafford) are very cynical about these so-called experts that are advising the government.

You have to be careful of newspaper headlines. Local newspapers don’t care about journalism any more, they’re just after clicks (as they sell few real copies).

In my local paper the headline was “Cases rise in Craptown!!” Yes, cases had “risen”. There was one case when the previous week there had been none.

Journalism like politics is a disgrace.

@bizmum1

I thought lockdown was supposed to be about making sure the NHS isn't overwhelmed. Hospitals are not at capacity, death rates haven't increased. The increased infections registered are due to increased testing. I think people (not just in Trafford) are very cynical about these so-called experts that are advising the government.

This

I thought lockdown was supposed to be about making sure the NHS isn't overwhelmed

That was the reason given for original lockdowns, however the action in recent lockdowns and the discussions on ending the original one makes it clear that was nothing more than a convenient excuse or the change in strategy afterwards went ahead without public discussion or parliamentary debate.

That lack of discussion or debate is not simply the fault of experts, it is also the fault of the media and parliament.

@bizmum1

I thought lockdown was supposed to be about making sure the NHS isn't overwhelmed. Hospitals are not at capacity, death rates haven't increased. The increased infections registered are due to increased testing. I think people (not just in Trafford) are very cynical about these so-called experts that are advising the government.

Haven't we since discovered that even healthy people who are asymptomatic have increased rates of heart disease and psychosis after recovery? That it's a systemic inflammatory illness which has unknown long term implications even for the previously well?

I'd expect the strategy to change as more information becomes available. Some things will ease and others tighten as transmission risk is understood better. As treatments become more effective, or side effects more concerning, I'd expect strategy to change.

Strategy must change to reflect changing knowledge.

I’m in Trafford & it’s so frustrating to see the numbers going up. It was a shock when we got put under new restrictions tbh as there was never any indication that things were getting like this until it happened. I think it’s a lot of the younger people. They haven’t really been social distancing & there has been mass gatherings & a couple of raves that police did nothing about. It felt like we were quite lucky during the peak of the outbreak (or amongst the people I spoke to we were) so it’s a shame to be seen to be going backwards. It’s confusing when you see how busy places like Cornwall & Devon are but they are still without restrictions. Hopefully things can be turned around quickly.

I'm also in Trafford and social distancing has been rubbish all along. Took the kids to the park the week after they opened and it was rammed, especially in the playground. We haven't been back. I know of plenty of people breaking rules, meeting up in numbers, sleepovers, a garden party with a whole class invited. The last couple of weeks the increase hasn't been in young people in Trafford. The information I was given is that it has bern in the 40 to 60 age group although that Guardian article says 25 to 60. I'm mentally preparing for further lockdown because I haven't noticed much change in behaviour.

That’s interesting @chipshopElvis re the figures you have seen. I agree the parks have been busy also local bars reopening have been inundated & I believe the city centre was at the weekend.
I’ve been wondering if there will be more lockdown but like you, we’ve not really ventured far so it wouldn’t be too much of a change.

@Emma1962 I have worked throughout lockdown but it's when out and about walking that the lack of social distancing has been apparent and stressful. I can't stand the thought of further lockdown and really don't think it would be necessary if people were less blasè.

Clear, empathic leadership and sacking Dom would have helped imo.

@bizmum1 exactly, it's not rocket science is it? So many more people are being tested now so of course the figures are increasing.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08mf511 A public health person from that area says in this podcast (from about 19 minutes in) that initially they saw cases in 17-22 year olds then afterwards older adults it looked like they had passed it on to.

Why are people so unbelievably dim when it comes to the concept of exponential growth? It’s so ridiculous to argue the hospitals are not overwhelmed at the moment and the death rate is not going up at the moment, and therefore it’s fine to carry on as we are - unless everyone wants a 2nd nationwide total lockdown, as would be required if we did fuck all until the hospitals were overwhelmed again. And that would likely happen sooner than last time, because the UK’s excess death rate indicates to me that people were going to hospital too late and needlessly dying or having their health marred for life during the last peak, due to fear of hospitals, or fear of running out of space in hospitals. If there’s another massive peak, I’m hoping more people get more effective treatment sooner than during the last shitshow, and also that the rest of the NHS doesn’t have to shut down again to make way for covid patients.

@userxx - does increased testing only apply to Greater Manchester, then? If not, what has it got to do with Greater Manchester having a specific issue not seen in other parts of the country?

Younger people are picked up after contact tracing an older person who has symptoms and takes a test. These younger people have no symptoms and are simply picked up due to the new efficiency of the contact tracing.
It can be imagined that many, many young people were infected and recovered without knowing at the height of the epidemic.

@Walkaround I live in Trafford, 4 weeks ago no one I knew bar hospital/care workers were being tested, now everyone I know seems to have been tested. Can't be down to coincidence can it? Maybe just maybe, the more tests that are carried out the more positive results. Mind blowing eh.

Why are people so unbelievably dim when it comes to the concept of exponential growth

Agree, and also dim when it comes to geography, demographics, population density and travel routes and hubs

I have to admit I'm a bit non plussed by the Graun article. Given the stats in the report - 80% of confirmed cases (where ethnicity stated) are of white background, and c.85% of population in Trafford is white background.

So the story is presumably cases in Trafford largely representative of local ethnicity profile

which admittedly is a pretty unexciting story.

Or am I missing something? and I probably am

@userxx - and how does this differ from the rest of the country? Or is your mind so blown you no longer have powers of reason?

Typical agenda driven Guardian article.

I notice the article is only about the parts of Greater Manchester that fit Pidds narrative, failing to mention the 2 worst hit places in the northern restricted areas. Bradford (W.Yorks) and Blackburn (Lancs)

Fails to include the worse affected places in these northern districts

The more you test the more positives there will be.
Currently 0.61% of tests are positive. That’s a tiny %

45% more tests in July compared to June

According to the article linked, tests in the area are coming back about 3% positive, though, rather than 1% as elsewhere. Surely if more tests are being done but the problem is not getting worse, that percentage should have gone down, not up?...

I'm greater Manchester, most people I know are still meeting up.
Not having parties but close family visits.
If pubs restaurants shops etc are open, so you can spend money, there's no harm in seeing your family.