Scary Peer Reviewed Science - Trigger Warning

[ClimbDad]

Taking Mumsnet HQ’s suggestion on board, this thread is for those who want scientific information about COVID-19. It is clearly advertised as scary, and has a trigger warning, so no complaints from anyone complaining they didn’t know what they were stumbling into.

I’ll only be sharing peer reviewed papers from respected journals and would advise anyone else who wants to share anything to use the same criteria.

The thread isn’t actually designed to scare. It’s designed to inform, so that people can make a decent assessment of risk and lobby decision makers when appropriate. Don’t assume government knows more than you. They’ve been behind the curve on everything.

I’ll start. The Guardian wrote a good article about the progress of respiratory viruses through autumn and how we don’t know whether SARS-COV-2 will compete with flu.

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/19/what-happens-when-flu-meets-covid-19

The theory of viral competition suggests COVID19 might be kept at bay by flu. In other words infection by other respiratory viruses might help reduce the impact of a second wave.

However this peer reviewed study published in the Journal of Medical Virology suggests flu and COVID19 don’t compete, and coexist simultaneously.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.26364

The inference is that having SARS-COV-2 circulating at the same time as influenza will cause more serious infection. It doesn’t seem that viral competition will make things better.

Practically what does this mean? I believe it means it is prudent to be even more cautious during flu season than we were in spring, and to do everything possible to reduce transmission. That is going to be particularly relevant to schools. Even if one refuses to accept schools play a role in COVID19 transmission, it is established science that schools are the engines behind influenza transmission every year, so precautionary measures make sense even if just to reduce spread of flu.

[quote OutwardBound2016]@Climbdad, do you work within the field?[/quote]
Yes. There will be positive news soon (couple of weeks) and some independently validated experiments to confirm it.

Thanks, I will monitor the news, presumably this is UK based science?

I read in NY Times today that The Serum Institute is growing vaccine from the Oxford group. Obviously a gamble at this stage, but they are prepping 100's of millions of vaccines.

To be split 50:50 between India & the rest of the world.

I can't link it as not techy enough but nytimes - I have c&p a bit below

^Indian Billionaires Bet Big on Head Start in Coronavirus Vaccine Race
The world’s largest vaccine producer, the Serum Institute, announced a plan to make hundreds of millions of doses of an unproven inoculation. It’s a gamble with a huge upside. And huge risks.
PUNE, India — In early May, an extremely well-sealed steel box arrived at the cold room of the Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine maker.

Inside, packed in dry ice, sat a tiny 1-milliliter vial from Oxford, England, containing the cellular material for one of the world’s most promising coronavirus vaccines.

Scientists in white lab coats brought the vial to Building 14, carefully poured the contents into a flask, added a medium of vitamins and sugar and began growing billions of cells. Thus began one of the biggest gambles yet in the quest to find the vaccine that will bring the world’s Covid-19 nightmare to an end.

The Serum Institute, which is exclusively controlled by a small and fabulously rich Indian family and started out years ago as a horse farm, is doing what a few other companies in the race for a vaccine are doing: mass-producing hundreds of millions of doses of a vaccine candidate that is still in trials and might not even work.^

Why are you hanging on the every word of an anonymous poster. Of course, there will be more news about new treatments and vaccine coming soon. I can say that, and I work in a different area of medical research. Educated guess.

@ TotallyHadEnoughNow, absolutely not hanging on every word! Keen for climbdad to show us that he indeed works in the scientific field by backing up his many, many claims with the ‘news’ that is promised....we shall wait and see.

As I said, we all know new treatments are being worked on and we have already heard about some. It will be no surprise to hear more in the next few weeks. The chances of the OP being one of the top scientists working on this (and having time to post on here) is about as likely as Trump coming out as gay.

@TotallyHadEnoughNow

As I said, we all know new treatments are being worked on and we have already heard about some. It will be no surprise to hear more in the next few weeks. The chances of the OP being one of the top scientists working on this (and having time to post on here) is about as likely as Trump coming out as gay.

Don’t rule it out @TotallyHadEnoughNow He could be overcompensating.

You’re right. With hundreds of vaccines and treatments in development, a generalised prediction is fairly easy. Let me be more specific. Within 2 weeks, evidence will be published demonstrating the success of an entirely new way of neutralising SARS-COV-2 (and other viral diseases). It’s a method that has only been hypothetical until this point, but which is safer than conventional or novel vaccines, highly efficacious and capable of rapid mass production. This will be the first proof that not only is this method possible, it is very effective.

Keen for climbdad to show us that he indeed works in the scientific field by backing up his many, many claims with the ‘news’ that is promised

And how exactly have you accomplished that?

climbdad I think I know what you're referring to. But it's still at an early stage of trials (behind the Oxford vaccine) isn't it.

If you have such knowledge of this miraculous new treatment, why do you post such doom ridden threads all the time?

@TotallyHadEnoughNow because that would mean school could return which is absolutely what climbdad is against

Btw. Neutralizing antibodies are being developed by many groups. It's all in the public domain😏

@TotallyHadEnoughNow

If you have such knowledge of this miraculous new treatment, why do you post such doom ridden threads all the time?

Because anyone working in this field knows population level treatment or inoculation will be at least 12 months away. Why risk more death, disease and chronic illness in the interim?

@TotallyHadEnoughNow

Btw. Neutralizing antibodies are being developed by many groups. It's all in the public domain😏

Your thinking is so 20th Century.

Are you suggesting schools should be closed until there’s a solution?

• that would mean school could return which is absolutely what climbdad is against"

You're allowed to be against schools opening but I've seen climbdad advocating masks in schools, not closed schools.

Well we are going to have a solution soon so masks will be a non point, yay!

@TheWoodsAreDark yes Climbdad is going to save all us helpless, females from ourselves

@TotallyHadEnoughNow we should be grateful that our greatest scientific minds are here on MN

The following is a post from Climbdad back in May. Does this sound like an expert on coronaviruses?

"Thanks for the answers. Looks like it’s too early to say whether it’s long infections or another bout. Wish we had more information on this thing."

Oh published within two weeks. Is this the Russian vaccine?

Posted this elsewhere about how schools are doing

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks

@TotallyHadEnoughNow

The following is a post from Climbdad back in May. Does this sound like an expert on coronaviruses?

"Thanks for the answers. Looks like it’s too early to say whether it’s long infections or another bout. Wish we had more information on this thing."

Please see this study in early May which scholarly experts would have relied upon at that time.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2766097

“...whether immunity occurs among individuals after they have recovered from COVID-19 is uncertain. Many human infections with other viral pathogens, such as influenza virus, do not produce a durable immune response..”

Then there's a possible treatment through T-cells, or some letter cell. They are too small to detect normally, but there some thoughts that 2 certain cells can be "used" in treatment, think the other one was B-cells.

I clearly don't work in the field, love reading it all.

The following is a post from Climbdad back in May. Does this sound like an expert on coronaviruses?

Er, yes.....