Scary Peer Reviewed Science - Trigger Warning

[ClimbDad]

Taking Mumsnet HQ’s suggestion on board, this thread is for those who want scientific information about COVID-19. It is clearly advertised as scary, and has a trigger warning, so no complaints from anyone complaining they didn’t know what they were stumbling into.

I’ll only be sharing peer reviewed papers from respected journals and would advise anyone else who wants to share anything to use the same criteria.

The thread isn’t actually designed to scare. It’s designed to inform, so that people can make a decent assessment of risk and lobby decision makers when appropriate. Don’t assume government knows more than you. They’ve been behind the curve on everything.

I’ll start. The Guardian wrote a good article about the progress of respiratory viruses through autumn and how we don’t know whether SARS-COV-2 will compete with flu.

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/19/what-happens-when-flu-meets-covid-19

The theory of viral competition suggests COVID19 might be kept at bay by flu. In other words infection by other respiratory viruses might help reduce the impact of a second wave.

However this peer reviewed study published in the Journal of Medical Virology suggests flu and COVID19 don’t compete, and coexist simultaneously.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.26364

The inference is that having SARS-COV-2 circulating at the same time as influenza will cause more serious infection. It doesn’t seem that viral competition will make things better.

Practically what does this mean? I believe it means it is prudent to be even more cautious during flu season than we were in spring, and to do everything possible to reduce transmission. That is going to be particularly relevant to schools. Even if one refuses to accept schools play a role in COVID19 transmission, it is established science that schools are the engines behind influenza transmission every year, so precautionary measures make sense even if just to reduce spread of flu.

[quote Whatdoesthatannoyingfoxsay]Thank you for this thread. I'm not entirely familiar with OP's posting history and not sure it's relevant anyway but I see it as a thread to discuss emerging evidence with those who wish to and without alarming those who prefer not to.

I'm surprised I haven't seen the various research on vertical transmission in pregnancy discussed yet. RCOG has described the possibility as "probable" since March, although it appears rare.

There are limitations with all the studies thus far (several published in different journals including JAMA) but the overall picture appears to be that it can't be ruled out and may occur in a small amount of cases.

Of course, all know cases are in third trimester so we do not know what developmental impact this may have (if any). As far as I know most viruses that are known to cross placenta are problematic, but then again there may be others we don't know about as there's been no prior reason to investigate on such a level.

I'm pregnant and it does concern me, along with other evidence of placental inflammation, and I'm being reasonably cautious for next few months while also trying to get out and about for my DC1.

This was first reported on 26th March in JAMA paediatrics and there are other journal articles since. I haven't got a lot of time and don't know the quality of this particular study but looks like it may provide a summary

www.fortunejournals.com/articles/vertical-transmission-of-covid19a-systematic-review.html[/quote]
That is a really good point. I had a baby early May so I kept up to date with info on that until she was born but admit I haven't since then.

Hi OP.

I’ve read quite a lot of this thread and wish I could bunk off and dive in properly but can’t right now.

I feel very sad about what has already happened and what is to come. Some people who have really objected to the OPs views and way of presenting them are positive, hopeful and determined to make the best of a difficult situation and not get overly worried about things that may never happen. Lots and lots of good people are thinking and acting this way.

Unfortunately none of our thoughts and actions will in any way change the virus and what it is capable of. If we’re lucky the measures we take will be enough. Luck is involved because it’s so new, lots of what we decide is based on best guesses, estimating our own risks and vulnerability - is 1m distance outdoors as I pass someone in the street a risk for me? or is a similar distance in a taxi risky for a cancer patient going for a blood transfusion?

I absolutely hope and pray for the best of luck for us all. I am also sad to think of those people who, today, don’t know that they have been found and infected by this virus and who will not see the end of August.

If someone you love was in their last month of life what would you hope to say or do?

I understand that some people will discount my views because I have lost a close relative to this virus. I realise my own grief makes me particularly keen that others do not have the same loss

The RCOG guidance is being regularly updated and includes a really good summary of the literature on possible vertical transmission

www.rcog.org.uk/globalassets/documents/guidelines/2020-07-24-coronavirus-covid-19-infection-in-pregnancy.pdf

There is a Q and A with 5 scientists in The T2 today. All have different views on what they would and would not do. One mentions airborne as a statement of fact about visiting a cinema.

I think it would really help if everyone was able to acknowledge that due to the level of uncertainly surrounding the virus it's very unlikely that any one point of view will ever be entirely right or entirely wrong. The only certainty is that nothing is certain!

I've compared the responses on this to the leave/remain divide in other posts and the more I see the more apt that comparison seems. I am a firm remainer and I certainly feel I learned a lot about how easy it is to cause people to simply disengage during the Brexit campaign and its aftermath and whilst I am not a fan of BJ I can objectively recognise that his tactics have been hugely successful.

The manner in which you communicate information does matter.

@ClimbDad really be interested to hear about your work on a Covid-19 treatment OP. More details please.

I think they need to work out what things that are most dangerous things so they know what to shut down or do what will actually work to make them safer.
Noting that countries with low cases and deaths are doing certain things.
If as a pp say the uv sunlight is making a difference then obviously nightclubs and cinema are generally worse.
Does light through a window help at all?
Shift workers do seem more affected but that could be affecting immune system or vit d.
I imagine factories etc are quite dark often and meat processing?

However im concerned that in winter if covid survives well at say 5deg then will it be more in the outside environment too? Will the sun be killing it in the air.
The fact it was worse in a ski resort area. Obviously still affecting hot countries and places without air con though.

Hopefully they can sort out air purifiers.

@Keepdistance

I think they need to work out what things that are most dangerous things so they know what to shut down or do what will actually work to make them safer. Noting that countries with low cases and deaths are doing certain things. If as a pp say the uv sunlight is making a difference then obviously nightclubs and cinema are generally worse. Does light through a window help at all? Shift workers do seem more affected but that could be affecting immune system or vit d. I imagine factories etc are quite dark often and meat processing?

However im concerned that in winter if covid survives well at say 5deg then will it be more in the outside environment too? Will the sun be killing it in the air.
The fact it was worse in a ski resort area. Obviously still affecting hot countries and places without air con though.

Hopefully they can sort out air purifiers.

You can get really good air purifiers these days as well, maybe a good help in offices and classrooms etc

Florida is currently hot and one of the worst affected US areas - I think the current thinking is that seasons dont affect it that much.

Nightclubs for me are a big one looking at Spain and South Korea. But also one that doesnt affect me.

@Quartz2208

Florida is currently hot and one of the worst affected US areas - I think the current thinking is that seasons dont affect it that much.

Nightclubs for me are a big one looking at Spain and South Korea. But also one that doesnt affect me.

Just thinking. Due to the heat, Floridians spend a lot of time inside and with air con. They also opened up very quickly too, including inside spaces, which may have contributed?

Yes I think air conditioning is a huge factor and they definitely opened up bars and nightclubs far too soon.

Interesting about air conditioning. My office has windows that won’t open due to the air con. It’s ridiculous. It’s not that hot here most days. Turn off the system and we can ventilate the building with fresh air!

Secondary Schools, on the other hand have notoriously bad ventilation!

"really be interested to hear about your work on a Covid-19 treatment OP. More details please."

I second that. In fact why don't mumsnet do a q&a session with @ClimbDad like they did with that woman who sometimes stands next to Johnson

@Piggywaspushed

Secondary Schools, on the other hand have notoriously bad ventilation!

So does my office but it’s allegedly Covid secure.

Doesn't sound it!

I'm a scientist. There are now over 36,000 Pubmed entries for Covid 19, so unless people have a huge amount of time on their hands, any sharing of information could potentially be 'cherry picking'. What I see the OP doing is sharing emerging research from high quality journals so that people can choose for themselves the level of precaution they are comfortable with. Of course down the line some of this information will be proved or disproved with further research. But sticking our heads in the sand and proclaiming anything vaguely worrying as 'fake news' isn't helpful.

Well said.

Are posters aware how partisan, subjective, emotional and flawed scientists can be sometimes?

Like doctors. Not necessarily committed to truth and healing- often just like the rest of us.

That's why there are lots of them, all talking at once and copying each others work. You have to follow the current, not zero in on one individual piece of research.

I think climbdad follows the current quite well and would rather we read his suggested reading material than anything the British government has to say.

@5363738383j

Are posters aware how partisan, subjective, emotional and flawed scientists can be sometimes?

Like doctors. Not necessarily committed to truth and healing- often just like the rest of us.

That's why there are lots of them, all talking at once and copying each others work. You have to follow the current, not zero in on one individual piece of research.

I think climbdad follows the current quite well and would rather we read his suggested reading material than anything the British government has to say.

You are joking, right? Did you not see him zero in on one study on this very thread?

The issue posters are having is that he keeps posting articles. If it was just one, that would be different. But there is a stream of them! How very dare he.

You can't have it both ways.

@5363738383j

The issue posters are having is that he keeps posting articles. If it was just one, that would be different. But there is a stream of them! How very dare he.

You can't have it both ways.

No, the issue in this thread is that he posted one article and declared it as proof, which is exactly what you just said we should not be doing!

@commentatorz

"really be interested to hear about your work on a Covid-19 treatment OP. More details please."

I second that. In fact why don't mumsnet do a q&a session with @ClimbDad like they did with that woman who sometimes stands next to Johnson

Yes I'll third that! I'd really like to know whether you are working on a vaccine or some other type of treatment that isn't vaccine-based. You also said in another thread that we can expect good news soon, which I am interested in.

The good news on the covid treatment cannot be shared here surely? It is only for scary peer reviewed updates!

@climbdad, yes I would be interested in the good news too, presumably vaccine related? This would also answer my question about your field of work.