Oh bollocks, I'm really nervous about my holiday now!

[stopitkenneth]

We're due to head to a French campsite in four weeks (driving all the way). We've cancelled two holidays due to COVID, Malta at Easter and Mellorca now. We decided a couple of weeks ago that we'd try for France as quarantine had lifted and I was able to get comprehensive insurance.
But now I'm really worried about needing to quarantine when we get back!

I know, I know, booking anything now was optimistic and a bit stupid. But we really REALLY want to get away (I'm frontline NHS,I need a bloody holiday). And it's hard to see how rates in France could be worse than what we've got here.

At no point have my workplace says that we shouldn't be booking holidays abroad. So if I do have to quarantine on my return, then I'm hoping they'll either support me to work from home, or I'm happy to take the two weeks unpaid. I'm hoping that because I booked it during the time that there was no quarantine, they can't come down hard on me. But I'm now really worried.
Argh!

@cathyandclare that's very interesting thank you. The second graph (tests) doesn't have a key that I can see so I'm not sure which country is which colour?

Apologies for dodgy screenshot!! I've tried again. You can see the original data on:

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/spain?country=ESP~GBR~FRA~DEU

It has some lovely graphs, if you like that kind of thing!!!

"And most people commenting about not being able to socially distance on a plane clearly have no concept of how air filtering on an aeroplane works. It is certainly safer than being on a bus or train."

Whoever posted the above: I've yet to see anything independent from a scientific standpoint stating with confidence that air filtering on a plane offers decent protection. Bacteria are more reliably trapped than viruses, and the jury is out about this. Anecdotal evidence from air hostesses and hosts suggests they catch way more colds and flu than the average person, and a peer reviewed paper has concluded that over a dozen people were infected on a flight from London to Vietnam in March.

For a start it's not like the air you breathe out is instantly sucked up and filtered so it's easy to see how you are sharing air with those closest to you before it's filtered. Also the air filtration does not operate during boarding or deplaning.

@ cathy, i can never download those graphs - is a pain. However for the uk since the government dont say how many people are tested i can never work out or compare this to the French data. It does appear to say for the French data it is people not tests so not sure it is a fair comparision.

No we came by Eurostar, to avoid the potential Airport and plane issues. There was no difficulties with social distancing on the train.

cathy so really we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg in terms of Spain (and maybe France too) as we know it can move through communities silently for weeks and weeks. I am willing to bet that SAGE understand that the public infection rate does not tally accurately with what is happening on the ground in Spain, and even the public stats are very worrying. An increase of 94%. It is also known that the coronavirus stats from the spring were not accurate, and are still not, many were revised down or ignored such as care home deaths and those in the community.

The government and SAGE have done the right thing.

Aragog I am sure you will be fine, but if you are worried move your travel dates forward. Did your dr consider the journey a safe one? Assuming you got the go ahead, then it is just a case of staying on top of the updates.

Yes my consultant was happy with my decision to go away. I wasn't shielding, but classed as vulnerable. He was more than happy with our plans and with the protective measures in place. He has more concerns over my safety back at school than he was about my holiday whether it was in the U.K. or in France.

We aren't really able to bring date to travel home early at the moment, and the area we are is not areas of concern, so a local lockdown where are are until the weekend is unlikely. We will be in Paris for the day at the weekend as we catch Eurostar from there, so that would be the only potential issue - again though Paris isn't currently a 'red concern' areas at this time, though things could change.

We shall just keep monitoring and staying safe in the way we've been doing both here and at home.

Cases in France are 14 per 100,000 people. This is the same as the uk. Yes cases have gone up in France and like the UK there are some badly affected areas but there seems to be a misconception that it is very bad.Keeping on top of cases and clusters should be the priority now.

You have to test thousands and thousands of people a day to have any hope of keeping on top of clusters and outbreaks humphries

Yes I know. Is the strategy different in the uk then?

Yes I believe the UK are testing much much more than other countries. The UK are taking a much more cautious approach to travelling, perhaps because the first wave was so bad for us.
I also believe politically it is much easier for the UK to put countries onto the red list than it is for say France or Germany - or will want to do that as a last resort due to the political implications within the EU.
There are differences. Those differences will become bigger as the situation worsens I imagine.

Look at the graphs above re: testing

madbird

ONS survey together with Oxford Uni modelling suggests the UK has between 1500 and 5500 infections each and every day.

I do agree on your prediction of huge increases in infections across Europe/World.

Where we disagree is what to do about it, you say UK is testing more than other countries but are we? multiple testing of the same person, posted tests, nasal and mouth swabs... all have discredited UK numbers.
We will have CV in all our countries for years to come, we need policies and changes in how we live to enable an economy to function and limit deaths, infections in themselves are not the issue.

As for 10 brits coming back with CV? well, we'd need to know where they contracted it before condemning holidays.... after all isn't that what Hancock said about NHS workers contracting CV?

I dont disagree with many of those points however I have looked at the graphs above and for the uk it shows numbers of tests, this is not the number of people tested. We dont know how many people are tested the uk per day whilst the figures for France are for the number of people so not really comparable. For example the last data i have is 85,000 people tested in a day in France ( not always this high i will say). They aim to test 700,000 a week.

Seriously. Why did you book this?

Anyone who is brave stupid enough to want to go abroad during a pandemic needs to be prepared to get coronavirus, let alone 2 weeks of isolating

I normally go away about 4 times a year. Funnily enough I'm not tempted in 2020!

In answer to your question: can you deal with the consequences? If not then clesarly you shouldn't go.

@Lelophants If there were any guarantee that we'd be out of this mess in a year or two, i'd agree but the chances are we will have to live alongside Covid for 3 or 4 years as a minimum.

So what sort of economy do you want in 2023?

Agreed @jasjas1973 but this is the first summer and there is still so much more we are learning and second wave is imminent.

Fair play if you dont care about the risks but be prepared for them. It pains me people book three foreign holidays and are surprised they may have to isolate and can't afford it.

Again Agreed! Its why i am here and not in France or Mallorca! and i can afford to isolate.

However, i think that if the Govt allows travel, it really does have to take some responsibility for the people who take them up on their offer, not everyone will consider the implications of their decisions.

Just as it is planning on buying the obese bicycles and treats smokers, as it allows the sale of tobacco.

My son went to Tenerife for 2 weeks, he’s been back 2 weeks, he’s been healthy, took a test yesterday just to check he hasn’t got it, it came back negative. He had a great holiday with his girlfriend, so no you won’t all catch it from going on holiday, there is hardly any cases in Tenerife, he was probably safer there than here.

@jasjas1973 the government also allows travel to places with rampant malaria, hang gliding, bungee jumping, unprotected sex, horse riding etc.. Do you think they should take responsibility for incidents or negative consequences from all these things?

They never said it was safe to travel, they expect people to take responsibility for their own choices. Most people have accepted this, and made the right decision for them- so they have travelled if they feel comfortable doing so.

@Chaotic45

What on earth are you on about?

Last time i looked the govt via GPs and the NHS will treat you for almost every self inflicted injury or disease, no matter the cause or the country visited.

Really hope you get your holiday. And anyone else who has something booked - whether they booked it last year or last week.
This thing that keeps popping up about key workers not having to isolate, I read it as you don't have to isolate if you are moving to the UK to take up a job in a hospital, not for people who already live here who have gone on hols. But I could be wrong!
My Trust has said that of you go away on good faith (I.e to a place not on the FCO non advisory list when you depart), and you are required to quarantine when you return, you'll either work from home or, if not possible, get special leave. Hope yours comes up with something similar.

We are in France at the moment. Yes it was a gamble, but we can do 2 weeks of isolation when we get back, so that was factored in. It’s really lovely here. We took a chance because we realised that the same drive time to the north of England would get us to a lovely part of France. I had read a few articles about tourists not being welcome in the U.K., and everything we looked at in the U.K. was booked up / expensive.
We have driven the whole way here so very little mingling except toilet stops where we have been very careful with hand washing. We are in a lovely 4 bed house within walking distance of the beach.
There’s no ‘prioritising French at the supermarkets’ so no idea where that rumour came from! In fact the supermarkets are quieter than my local Sainsbury’s at home!

Everyone here is wearing masks in shops and it feels very clean and safe. There’s no drunkenness or litter. The beaches are not busy so it’s very easy to socially distance. We have eaten outdoors or self-catered.

My DS has gone from being stroppy, difficult, screen obsessed, to relaxed and content. He told me how calm and happy he feels here. In fact my main worries are feeling judged when we get home.

Fair play if you dont care about the risks but be prepared for them

This is the issue people only thinking of themselves and their own needs. Who cares if they infect anyone else ah?