Is September going to be a big risk?

[Melonslicexx]

Just curious to people's opinions on all this. I know nobody has a crystal ball. Partners sister has caught coronavirus this week. It's a reminder that it's still very much out there. She works in a high risk job. But still.....

I want my child back at school. She went for a session Monday and she loved it. But they were stood on spots and the teachers spoke to them through a computer screen. They didn't actually get to see them.

I know life cant stop forever. But they are going back right at the start of virus season. There will be children every single week with colds, fevers, coughs and the like. We won't be allowed to keep them off without getting a test. Ofcourse testing is important. But my mum's had four as she's been in hospital with something else. She said it makes you gag. It's not always terrible. But you gag. She said one nurse shoved it really far up her nose she felt pain in her eyebrow. So she's said it's not pleasent but it's fine because it's important. Children will be having these tests done several times over the winter. It feels like all we have ahead is stress. I'm so sorry to write it when people want to move forward. but it comes with risk. Eventually it's going to end up in all schools over this winter. When it does parents will be having to keep kids off and isolated. Parents will be trying to work around all this. There will be the worry waiting to hear if a child has tested positive in your child's bubble/school etc. But the scariest part is what if we as parents get it and we feel absolutely terrible. Yet nobody is going to take our children for us as we won't be allowed. Or what If our kids get a horrible version.

Sister in law has fever
Aches
No taste.
No sense of smell,
She's vomiting.
Her backs squeezing.
She is exhausted.

Sounds absolutely awful and the reality is after hiding away since march we all are very likely to get it over the autumn and winter.

In your opinions. Do you think this winter will mean most of us will get it?
Are you worried about your child going to school?
Do you think it's going to be a nightmare everytime your child or yourself gets a cold?

I know that last year there were times I had a cold and DD was ok. But that won't be ok this year. Any virus will mean stay home.

What does they mean for attendance?

Sorry for all the questions. Just wanted s harmless discussion about what others are thinking.

This is the thing. AFAIK, no schools in the UK have gone back “normally” as yet. At most they’ve gone back with smaller bubbles and social distancing, not cram 30+ in a classroom and hope for the best.

@halcyondays, You're right, of course, but that doesn't suit some people's narrative.
Schools in June and July were so far from "normal" that it doesn't even count.

I just did a bit of number crunching from the government's weekly surveillance reports. Please take a look if you want to know how schools being open has affected transmission.

Sorry, I didn't give enough explanation - the educational column is the number of outbreaks in educational settings. The total is the total number of outbreaks. The percentage is the proportion of outbreaks that took place in educational settings. The data runs from May at the bottom to the most recent, July, at the top.

The bubble in a local school burst two days after opening. Parent sent ill child who had been tested but results not back.

He was positive. Two adults then positive. Closed for 3 weeks.

Personally I think a second wave is likely now, hopefully we are doing enough to contain it to minimum levels rather than allowing to spread through the whole community.
I'm far from being a 'doomer' , but this virus does seem very tenacious. Even countries that have done very well to control it keep seeing resurgances, so there's no reason to think we won't.
We're just going to have to carry on being as careful as possible for the forseeable future. I think the best thing to do is to protect your own health and immune system. (And that of your children of course).

I am not sure that shows schools have been the cay=use of local outbreaks. But it does show there has been a rise in outbreaks in schools, which, since they reopened more widely is logical. Not logical to those, though, who persist in peddling the myth (with the help of some MSM) that kids do not catch or transmit this virus. I would like to know whether these outbreaks were children, adults, or both.

Certainly in the outbreak in a nursery in MK it covered children, workers and parents. The argument might be that parents gave it to their children or teachers gave it to the children, but , in that case, how did it skip from one adult population to the other without children playing some role??

I agree with Piggy. I don't think it shows schools are the cause (though equally, I don't think it shows they weren't). It definitely shows that schools are at least as susceptible as other work places, even with the quite stringent measures in place that they have now. Those figures are going to go up in September, not down.

Just what schools do to communities is obviously going to make the risk of catching it go up. 400 adults all milling around one or two gateways over a period of 30 minutes. Hanging around for a chat. Just increases the community mixing.

I've got a secondary dd and a primary dd.

I'm seriously considering keeping secondary dd home in September and taking the fine.

They'll all be mixing on packed buses so their bubbles are bull shit.

Absolutely dreading it. The school isn't great normally with fights, bullying and not much discipline.

@ohthegoats

Just what schools do to communities is obviously going to make the risk of catching it go up. 400 adults all milling around one or two gateways over a period of 30 minutes. Hanging around for a chat. Just increases the community mixing.

Our school is doing all they can to mitigate this

• one adult picks up per child/family
• staggered pick up and drop off times with a 10 min slot per class
• dedicated entrances for different classes
• no hanging around the school gates for a chat and practise SD whilst you're there

It wont be perfect, but its not like everyone is just going to go back to pre-covid behaviour.

All schools are doing the same stuff, we have to. You can't legislate for 400 adults though (that would be one adult per child in my school).

What do you people suggest? Like a real legitimate suggestion that can work for all? We will have a generation of children missing out on a year's education if they don't go back in September... Home schooling does not work for everyone... Try getting my autistic daughter who normally has a one on one teacher to sit and work all day while her parents are still trying to work.. Its impossible. To suggest the whole. Country is going to catch it this winter because schools are back is just bonkers... Pupils will be sent home at the first sign of illness ( not like befor when we were told a cough or cold is not an excuse not to attend) so it won't spread as fast.

The mental health crisis we will have next year will be out of control if we don't get back to normal soon.

no hanging around the school gates for a chat and practise SD whilst you're there

This is in all school planning-we have to say this. It doesn’t mean parents do it.

We only had a very small proportion of pupils back in June and by the end of the first week, the parents were not practising social distancing in the playground at all. Many were going to the park together with groups of kids (plus siblings who’d not been to school) after school-despite frequent reminders from the school.

When all 500 of our pupils are back-it will be worse, it’s fairly easy to see.

Understand all sides of this debate but one factual thing does need to be added. PHE England stats show 197 “respiratory infection incidents” at “educational settings” in the past 4 weeks with more kids back in schools compared to just a handful during the entirety of the stricter parts of lockdown. So there doesn’t seem to be much doubt that schools reopening will increase the risk of spreading Covid if it hasn’t been eliminated by September.

Even if they didn’t go to the park, the children would be going home and mixing with siblings anyway. Younger ones that aren’t at school yet or older ones at a different school. Or going to a cousins house while their parents are at work, etc.The bubble thing has always been complete nonsense.

And bear in mind also, that there will be an assumption that if schools are open, they are operating "safely." Whilst they will do their best within the limitations the guidelines suggest, they will NOT be safe. But the danger will be that people will be lulled into a false sense of security and assume that, "well, if they're at school, they might as well go to such and such afterwards." Thus spreading anything they've picked up on the premises.

What do you people suggest? Like a real legitimate suggestion that can work for all? We will have a generation of children missing out on a year's education if they don't go back in September...
@Forgone90 it isn’t a binary if all in full time or all out full time. A more sensible plan, as others have said, is to have some sort of blended system with pupils in on a rota in small groups so they can get the direct teaching then work to follow up and practice techniques at home.

@cardibach

What do you people suggest? Like a real legitimate suggestion that can work for all? We will have a generation of children missing out on a year's education if they don't go back in September... *@Forgone90* it isn’t a binary if all in full time or all out full time. A more sensible plan, as others have said, is to have some sort of blended system with pupils in on a rota in small groups so they can get the direct teaching then work to follow up and practice techniques at home.

That plan requires parents not to work.

Schools were never shut because they were dangerous, they were shut to protect the NHS
Ummm @Juststopswimming do you understand how they were protecting the NHS? It was because it stopped schools being centres if spread of infection. It reduced the numbers infected and therefore the numbers needing NHS help. In other words, they were shut because of the danger of infection in school. They’re dangerous. Or can be, if not able to take the correct precautions- the government guidance doesn’t allow any precautions at all really.

@Jrobhatch29 it doesn’t at secondary where the risks are much greater, the bubbles non-existent and the pupils don’t need a parent at home for them to be at home.

I think we should have gone part time for a while and build it up.

I think we'll have more disruption due to sickness and outbreaks.

My personal preference is always planned disruption over unplanned disruption.

@Forgone90

What do you people suggest? Like a real legitimate suggestion that can work for all? We will have a generation of children missing out on a year's education if they don't go back in September... Home schooling does not work for everyone... Try getting my autistic daughter who normally has a one on one teacher to sit and work all day while her parents are still trying to work.. Its impossible. To suggest the whole. Country is going to catch it this winter because schools are back is just bonkers... Pupils will be sent home at the first sign of illness ( not like befor when we were told a cough or cold is not an excuse not to attend) so it won't spread as fast.

The mental health crisis we will have next year will be out of control if we don't get back to normal soon.

Agree so much with this plus your comment about blended learning not working and meaning parents are unable to work.

This autumn/winter is going to see some bumps I am sure, but I dont see there is a viable alternative than trying to get back to normality.

[quote cardibach]@Jrobhatch29 it doesn’t at secondary where the risks are much greater, the bubbles non-existent and the pupils don’t need a parent at home for them to be at home.[/quote]
Maybe older secondary but would you leave 11/12 year old at home all week alone?