Lots of good news at the moment!

[FrugiFan]

www.bbc.com/news/health-53467022
A trial of a drug which could reduce ICU admission by 79%, and is already in use for other things so doesnt need human trials for side effects etc.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839
Promising news about one of the many vaccines in production.

Hospital admissions have not increased, more than 2 weeks after pubs and restaurants reopened.

Lots of reasons to think positive at the moment

Further to my last message, Nature is reporting that this variant of the virus hasn’t been since in many months since it was isolated, - far from becoming more prevalent - which is a shame. Nonetheless, the fact Covid has mutated in that way once, shows it could happen again.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

Part of the good news of that story was that the mutation was less harmful and stimulated a strong immune response, which is useful information for vaccine research ( in a more finessed cowpox/smallpox kind of way)

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-end/who-chief-hopes-coronavirus-pandemic-will-last-less-than-two-years-idUSKBN25H294

I found this quite reassuring! I know 2 years sounds like an eternity but on the basis that the WHO is talking about the world at large I suspect for lots of countries it will be over a lot sooner than that. There is an end in sight.

Seven day average of cases is going down. Only 2 deaths in England today and hospitalizations continue to decrease.

theconversation.com/9-reasons-you-can-be-optimistic-that-a-vaccine-for-covid-19-will-be-widely-available-in-2021-144277

I though this was a good and reassuring read.

news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown

"Public immunity is probably higher than antibody tests have shown."

Great articles thanks. The vaccine was is positive and the T-Cell one was very interesting:

results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in

I imagine this will vary in different populations ( antibodies over 50% in the Mumbai slums) but could mean there's more herd protection in hard-hit places like London and NYC.

Yeah places like Mumbai are intruiging with such high levels, obviously due to the very cramped living conditions and shared facilities etc. I wonder what would happen if you tested the 50% without antibodies for t cells!!
All the IFR studies are based on antibody prevelance too so it might be lower if t cells are factored in in future studies

Hey all,just copying this link another poster started a different thread with. Of course their first reply was a negative one,so I've told them to come join us here!
covid.joinzoe.com/post/incidence-update-21-aug

Yes, I was reading about the new mutation, they had dissevered a deleted sequence in the one in Singapore- very interesting.

Reporting on Spain that the new cases mainly mild and also the mortality rate much lower.

"Only around 3% of current cases require hospital treatment, less than 0.5% need intensive care and the current death rate is as low as 0.3%.
"Mortality is very low, as is the hospitalisation rate."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53832981

This is comparable to the Asian flu in the 1960s rather than the 1918 Spanish flu which had a higher rate of about 3%

I can only assume that as more cases are being tested for the awareness of the lower rate is becoming more apparent. Ant yet in much of the media they still keep going comparing it to Spanish flu

Reporting on Spain that the new cases mainly mild and also the mortality rate much lower.

A very similar situation is unfolding in Ireland now also.

Scientists find COVID-19 coronavirus variant linked to milder infections

Researchers in Singapore have discovered a new variant of the COVID-19 coronavirus that causes milder infections, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal this week.

www.cbc.ca/news/health/milder-coronavirus-1.5694855

The study showed that COVID-19 patients infected with a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had better clinical outcomes, including a lower proportion developing low blood oxygen or requiring intensive care.

The study also showed the variant, which has a large deletion in a part of its genome, elicited a more robust immune response.

The study involved researchers from various Singapore institutions, including the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID), the Duke-NUS Medical School and the Agency for Science, Technology and Research.

"These studies provide the first convincing data showing that an observed genetic change (mutation) in SARS-CoV-2 has affected the severity of disease in patients,"

A very similar situation is unfolding in Ireland now also

Also seems to be the case in the UK, with less hospital admissions for the number of cases. Fingers crossed this continues.

I thought it was interesting this new mutation is thought to have come from Wuhan, considering they have so low cases there are having pool parties etc. Could it be linked perhaps...

Fingers crossed this continues

Yup

Studies on the Diamond Princess cruise ship also indicated a similar low mortality rate, in a closed population..interesting...

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w

From start of Feb those cases were so would be before this new mutation as well...

@Pixel7777

Unfortunately the mutation was isolated from Singapore cases relatively early in the pandemic around March but hasn’t been seen in cases since. It’s positive in that it may help with vaccine development, but it doesn’t seem to be a strain that’s in circulation.

Perhaps if Wuhan and Singapore hadn’t done such a good job at suppressing the virus it could have become more prevalent!..

Interesting. I'm intrigued by the situation in Wuhan and how China is so free of the virus now.

Public immunity is probably higher than antibody tests have shown.

Good news... I expect it’s correlated with age. The younger you are, the more likely you’ll be able to fight it off with a t-cell response alone.

If immunity is double antibody levels, it would imply 30%+ of Londoners are immune... not enough for herd immunity, but enough to blunt ant resurgence. I wonder how that sits with Mumbai slums that have shown 58% antibodies. This would imply the herd immunity % needs to be very high indeed in densely packed areas. More studies are needed... If there’s one thing that Covid has taught me is not to rely on a single studies to be correct as they often report very different figures, and only after a large number have done with varying approaches do we settle on a more reliable figure (or range of figures).

@Pixel7777

I’m thinking it’s iron fisted suppression of the virus in a highly controlled population. They’ve gone for an elimination strategy with massive testing (far more than any other country), quarantining new arrivals (and I don’t imagine there’ll be any of the laxity we saw in Australia regarding that), and massive clampdowns as soon as any outbreaks are identified (see Beijing fish market the other month).

Interesting to read that a China health official says they are giving emergency use of one of their vaccines to vulnerable and have for a while now

Ahhh can't find the link now!

The results of this Covid secure concert trial should be open interesting:-

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/covid-secure-concert-trial-leipzig-arena-germany-tim-bendzko-141515527.html?guccounter=1&gucereferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guceereferrersig=AQAAAHhpxaEJOwTeDzCHqKTEooz4BFncRi4GCRjabUD_o0JEfjOW49RTbKy4mJ-AconKHr3BDn3LFMN57mcWpAWHQE7rwyfdyk6pTPbDwHzLCKVKZetKv0AcTt6O6StJmATTESSWjvytQkkivX2O9XYQgn8xQm102kiAill3zuk37K3L

Plus a baby gorilla has been born at Bristol Zoo!!

🤣🤣🤣

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-53874594