Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

official site not updated yet, although with 846 the confirmed number the next level updates may take a bit longer?

Does anybody know why there's no deaths reported today?

Somebody said 12 hospital deaths upthread but worldometer is blank.

@ChristmasinJune

Does anybody know why there's no deaths reported today?

Somebody said 12 hospital deaths upthread but worldometer is blank.

The Gov have "officially" stopped announcing overall deaths whilst they conduct an "urgent"(!) investigations into issues with reporting of PHE (non hospital) deaths. But the overall number is still being published on the dashboard updated by PHE, but it's not been updated with today's figures yet. Should be soon.

Apparently PHE have also stopped publishing as of today

Where would we get the figures from then?! That seems very odd

I'm wondering if someone has just forgot to click the "update" button for the Officlal and Staging website data for today. Hasn't been this late for quite a while. Risk of and data mix increasing by the second :)

In the notes for 30th July, they seem to have found 800 odd more positive historical cases, so I reckon this is why the PHE site is late today - more to update.

No weekly surveillance report yet either. Maybe the Update Button Presser is on hols in Spain ;-) with Grant Shapps...

That note looks to refer to test numbers as opposed to confirmed cases, copied from www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#july-notes

30 July notes
The total number of tests made available has been revised since yesterday’s total after the following changes to the historical data:

187 tests added to the pillar 1 cumulative total
839 tests added to the pillar 2 cumulative total
2 tests added to the pillar 3 cumulative total
The daily tests made available reported today have been added to this revised total rather than the total reported yesterday, so the cumulative total today is 1,028 higher than if you added the daily tests to yesterday’s total.

The total number of tests processed has been revised since yesterday’s total after the following changes to the historical data:

187 tests added to the pillar 1 cumulative total
2 tests added to the pillar 3 cumulative total
The daily tests processed reported today have been added to this revised total rather than the total reported yesterday, so the cumulative total today is 189 higher than if you added the daily tests to yesterday’s total.

pretty sure there is a note like that most days!

with the daily notes followed by regular letters from Office for Statistics regulation :); and not letters that lavish praise either!

@boys3 thank you! That’s really helpful appreciate it

We may well see thousands of extra deaths from recession over the next few years,
but spread out over years they are not something that hammers the coutry as a whole - as with the earlier deaths from austerity and benefit cuts, it will fly under the radar for most people

Dementia (from isolation) and Diabetes (via excess weight and lack of exercise) will likely be the main drivers of death from a lockdown, not a recession, not that it changes the point that delay in those deaths won't have significantly impacted current excess deaths.

We have data!

38 deaths for what it's worth....

Hospital admissions and number in hospital continuing downwards trend.

New cases seems worrying. My area - low for a long time - has had its worst week since May for new cases. Not one outbreak, lots of little ones by the look of it.

P2 tests up a bit though so looking at 7 day average of tests and percentage positives, former is up and latter down very slightly.

So at a UK level, tbh, it's looking quite stable.

@MarcelineMissouri
Thanks for that twitter thread, I found it very useful.

Embarrassing
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/30/sturgeon-rebuked-statistics-watchdog-dodgy-claims-uk-virus-rate/

@PatriciaHolm

P2 tests up a bit though so looking at 7 day average of tests and percentage positives, former is up and latter down very slightly.

So at a UK level, tbh, it's looking quite stable.

Cheers Patricia, although I'd prefer downwards I'll take steady at this point!

Yes me too, but given the other early warnings - NHS 111/online calls - remain low and not growing, I think we are ok right now. We do need the local level response to be on the ball though I think, as cases continue to be localised - large areas of the UK are seeing minimal cases.

That twitter thread is saying - with more analysis of the reasons - what we've been saying for a while. However I actually think it's wrong now. Local outbreaks are not being jumped on fast enough. Take a look at Blackburn, Bradford, Sheffield, Hackney, - and small outbreaks or rises are more common e.g Braintree, Barnet, Barking, Bassetlaw, Bedford.

You can see the impact of opening up and the vulnerable need to continue taking a lot of care. Maybe mask wearing will keep it down, I hope so.

The thing is - and it may just me being dim, is that deaths + hospital admissions + number in hospital going down, but cases going up, is exactly what you would expect to see at the end of a dip and the start of a significant rise in the pandemic.

Hospital and deaths are still low because they are lagging indicators - they are responding to the infections 2-6 weeks ago. Meanwhile, positive tests / cases are a more current indicator of a rise in new cases.

Also, just so I understand - is all testing being recorded in this central data? I recollect someone saying that in one of the regions of concern, local organisations had taken over the ?testing? from the central organisation, and so I wondered whether this data was or was not feeding through into the daily data?

As a teacher within the Oldham area, I worry that more deprived areas where cases seem to be increasing will put schools in those areas at risk of repeated closure which in turn will mean that pupils who are already disadvantaged are even further disadvantaged in their exams next year.

That really worries me too. There will be 3 'classes' of students taking exams next year

• Those from private schools who will have had full-time education remotely from March and then face to face in a stable manner for all of next year.
• Those from state schools in relatively privileged areas, where infections are likely to remain low and time out of school over the coming year will not be too disruptive, and be backed up by decent access to technology.
• Those from state schools in more deprived areas, some of whom may not open in September, and those that do may close again rapidly and frequently, with little backup due to poor access to technology or space to work at home.

You can see the impact of opening up and the vulnerable need to continue taking a lot of care. Maybe mask wearing will keep it down, I hope so.

It's not just opening up here as well it's everyone going away and then coming back from their foreign holidays (or even staying in the UK can cause risks if places get too busy/holidayers let their guard down).