Schools Reopening?

[ClimbDad]

A major, peer reviewed study into transmission in South Korea has established that tweens and teenagers spread the SARSCOV2 virus more than any other age group.

The study involved more than 65,000 people and used South Korea’s exceptionally effective contact tracing system to look at who brought the virus into households. Tweens and teenagers were the highest index case age group. Younger children transmitted at the same rate as 20-somethings.

This is a large scale, rigorous piece of research that proves children are effective at transmitting the virus. It was conducted in a country that implements strict social distancing and mask wearing among children. The authors say the rate of transmission would have been higher if children weren’t subjected to those measures.

Plans to reopen schools more or less as normal in September will place many lives at risk, and increase the likelihood schools will have to close again. The government needs to acknowledge schools will be highly efficient vectors of viral transmission and change its reopening plans.

Published Paper:
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article

Article on the paper:

www.bloombergquint.com/business/covid-19-spread-fastest-by-teens-and-tweens-korea-study-finds

Long term complications are for those who have become seriously ill with the virus. And it is highly unlikely that someone under 20 will get seriously ill from it.

Sorry...hit post too soon.
...are you prepared for your children to have long term lung and heart conditions?

And the frustrating and terrifying thing is that this has been so very badly managed that children like my son, who already has long term lung damage and a heart condition, are expected to go back to school in September.

I agree that those children who have a pre
existing condition are very at risk and they should be protected

But the majority of the school population are not at risk and should return as normal

Separately the Telegraph is reporting an internal government report saying lockdown will cost 200,000 lives (or 155,000 more lives than related to Covid deaths). Thus is due to various factors including treatment delays for things like cancer as well as 185,000 medium and long term deaths.

But the more virus there is, the more cancer services will be disrupted and the more deaths from other causes too. It wasn't lockdown that caused these deaths per se, but the pandemic - a new virus spreading rapidly and taking up healthcare capacity / causing healthcare workers to have to isolate or take time off work ill (some of whom now have long term illness so still aren't back at work). The more we 'open as normal' the more normal healthcare will be disrupted. Coronavirus and excess other deaths are related and will track upwards together. Remember those overwhelmed Italian hospitals? We avoided that due to lockdown but it's still possible and would happen if we just open as normal.

The more we suppress the virus, the more likely normal healthcare can get back to normal. The only way to do this without lockdown is by using measures like masks and social distancing everywhere possible, including in schools.

@mumsneedwine for a start our school children don't go to school at such a young age as many children. But also, if you've grown up in a country where children regularly see people in masks, and have always done so they are less alien to them culturally. Very tiny children will find it hard to observe correct hygiene using them.

It's a bit like people who wear gloves in shops etc with a false sense of security.

All work was set on Show My Homework and after about a month there started to be some PowerPoints with voiceovers
You can guess why the improvements (the audio PowerPoints) happened after several weeks can't you? None of us knew how to do it before then or had ever had need to! And for us anyway the first week was a mad rush of trying to find out what was happening with exam classes. We learned a lot really quickly (and without the chance to be trained) and should be praised for that not villified.

@Mistressiggi

All work was set on Show My Homework and after about a month there started to be some PowerPoints with voiceovers You can guess why the improvements (the audio PowerPoints) happened after several weeks can't you? None of us knew how to do it before then or had ever had need to! And for us anyway the first week was a mad rush of trying to find out what was happening with exam classes. We learned a lot really quickly (and without the chance to be trained) and should be praised for that not villified.

Ah but she comes to bury Caesar, not praise him...

@Rosewhite12 a lot of people suffering Long Covid, with symptoms that include possibly long term heart, lung & neurological damage, had what was an initial ‘mild’ illness - didn’t see a doctor or go to hospital. You don’t have to have Covid severely to suffer long term debilitating symptoms. And many of those suffering from Long Covid are younger & previously fit & healthy.

mac12, Do you have a source for that? I haven't heard of that issue before and would like to know more.

I was just reading the BMJ article on long term implications of covid whicj states: "Aside from anecdotal evidence, there is as yet little research on this issue"

"Mild" means not hospitalised in this case btw

@CallmeAngelina there are lots of articles about sufferers & some v active Facebook groups with thousands of members. There’s a thread on Mumsnet too. Also a lot on Twitter - people across the world suffering for months with this. There is obviously not a lot of data yet, esp as most of the people were never hospitalised or even tested, so hard to track & follow up. I think the NHS is launching a new support service for Long Covid sufferers.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/612679/

Study just published showing no significant difference in the viral loads of children and adults.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.17.20155333v1

Children rely on us to keep them safe from harm. If schools open as normal in September we will have failed.

It's a shame that there is no one consistent message on this. I don't know quite HOW there isn't a consistent message on it really - can't blame this one on Johnson, because globally there have been missed opportunities.

There are very few places that are comparable to us regard education and school set up. Korea and Sweden are two sides of the coin, but neither of them fit what we need in terms of actual scientific fact.

I think it's just too early to tell for sure

For all the preprint studies that say the viral load is the same for children and adults, there are studies that say they are different. Doesn't mean the one @ClimbDad linked is categorically correct or categorically wrong.

ClimbDad that study you link to is not yet peer reviewed.

You dont seem to want schools to open at all?

@tobee

For all the preprint studies that say the viral load is the same for children and adults, there are studies that say they are different. Doesn't mean the one *@ClimbDad* linked is categorically correct or categorically wrong.

Instead of making vague assertions, please link to evidence. I have shared the latest study, there are others that demonstrate the viral load is the same in children as it is in adults.

Here’s the European CDC on the issue:
www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence/transmission

I get that it’s inconvenient and difficult to accept, and that it would be much easier to believe children were somehow unable to transmit the virus, but living in a make believe world isn’t going to get us through this pandemic. We need to face reality, no matter how hard or unpalatable, and we need to adapt accordingly.

In February, many people tried to deny a pandemic was coming. Imagine how many lives could have been saved if Britain had acted sooner. Let’s not make the same mistake. Let’s not have to bury tens of thousands more before we’re forced to admit schools are hubs for transmission.

@Juststopswimming

ClimbDad that study you link to is not yet peer reviewed.

You dont seem to want schools to open at all?

Parents should be given a choice between in-person schooling and distance learning without fear of prosecution or losing school places.

Students and teachers in school should wear masks and engage in other infection control measures outlined by many teachers who’ve commented on this thread.

If 33% of students are taught via distance learning, average class sizes will come down, making it easier to implement infection control measures and reducing risk for everyone.

So, no, I don’t want schools to close. Give parents the choice and adopt effective infection controls and the risk will reduce for everyone.

I'm not making vague assertions. Your link has yet to be peer reviewed. It is just one of a number of studies. You have selectively linked to one study because it's inconvenient and difficult to accept that it's too early to tell @ClimbDad

ClimbDad - so what are you proposing in place of school? That kids stay at home for the forseeable future and learn through an ipad? Isolated from their friends and peers.

As a teacher, do you really believe that distance learning is a sufficient education and the right solution overall? And if so, for how long? Until there is a vaccine? Until there are 0 cases in the world ever?

And if we are shutting schools then everything else needs to shut too i am guessing? So we are back to square 1 of lockdown.

Im genuinely curious as to what you think should happen next

A quick google shows me many studies that disagree with your link. There are absolutely loads of studies saying all shades of different opinions on this and many other issues around Covid 19 all queuing up to be peer reviewed. At the moment it's easy to pick and choose what fits your agenda. They are all relatively small studies carried out in the midst of a pandemic, in different countries.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-children-transmission-adults-french-study-a9582976.html%3famp

Also, children at home, (33% of them!!!) distance learning will obviously be disadvantaged in comparison to their peers. Educationally, socially and psychologically.

The South Koreans have been on the money time and time again. Their science is exceptionally rigorous.

This study also accords with major “second wave” outbreaks in schools in Israel and Melbourne, Australia.