Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Yes, Zoe's map was getting too beige so they decided to add some more colour and recalibrate their ratings.

After their latest adjustments (fixing the antibody testing error and removing non infectious "long-haulers") their numbers seem to make more sense.

The Zoe map freaked me out yesterday with all the red. I thought I was looking at the wrong date. I liked the 0.3% etc too.

ONS surveillance is out. Really low numbers again, even lower than before so difficult to get meaningful results.

The number of people in England testing positive has decreased since the start of the study has now levelled off

Our latest estimates indicate that at any given time during the two weeks from 22 June to 5 July 2020, an average of 14,000 people in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) (95% confidence interval: 5,000 to 31,000)1. This equates to 0.03% (95% confidence interval: 0.01% to 0.06%) of the population in England or around 1 in 3,900 individuals. This estimate is based on swab tests collected from 25,662 participants, of which eight individuals from eight different households tested positive for COVID-19.

In other news, I'm off for a test. The ZOE app called me because I reported feeling achy and tired yesterday. I'm fine today ( and reported as such) but I was knocked out and did nothing but sleep for 24 hours.

Got a test within an hour 6 miles away, so going to do it for the research benefits ( also seeing my parents next week for the first time so would be good to have a check).

@cathyandclare

ONS surveillance is out. Really low numbers again, even lower than before so difficult to get meaningful results.

The number of people in England testing positive has decreased since the start of the study has now levelled off

Our latest estimates indicate that at any given time during the two weeks from 22 June to 5 July 2020, an average of 14,000 people in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) (95% confidence interval: 5,000 to 31,000)1. This equates to 0.03% (95% confidence interval: 0.01% to 0.06%) of the population in England or around 1 in 3,900 individuals. This estimate is based on swab tests collected from 25,662 participants, of which eight individuals from eight different households tested positive for COVID-19.

So 8/25,662 this time; 14/24,256 last week, 11/19,993 week before, 36/18,913 before that.

I think it's got to statistically useless stage now tbh.

Patricia, I agree its statistically meaningless. it would make sense for the sample size to be increased and perhaps for the survey to done for 2 weeks out of 4 rather than continuously. This would be much more useful as the periods would be non-overlapping and it would be easier to spot trends.

That said, what we can conclude, if random testing only found 8 positives out of over 25,000 (which includes the asymptomatic) is that incidence in the community is now reassuringly low.

In other positives - today’s test and trace report suggests %of people in Pillar 1 and 2 testing positive is 1.4%, I think the lowest it’s been, and also indicative that enough testing is being done.

And, looking at latest English hospital deaths by date and ignoring the most recent few days which will get updated, 7 day average is less than 30, which, adding the other nations and other settings, does suggest total per day is now under 50.

@AprilLady just bookmarked your post there in an attempt to Like it

Thanks for your insights.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53349888

Some good news above

Latest PHE data on week on week cases is out too; lots of reassuring drops (see attached).
Nothing else particularly interesting that I can see. Next biggest case load after Leicester is Rochdale (32.7) and Bradford (31.8), both coming down. Then Kirklees (29.9) and Blackburn (24) both slightly up on last week but down on the week before, Blackburn by quite a lot, so nothing to worry about there I don't think atm.

Hillingdon is up both last weeks, but that's the known Hospital outbreak.

I’m another who got freaked out by the Zoe data map! I’m going to have to recalibrate my brain to accept this new method!

Today’s numbers look pretty good on the face of it. Having a run of days with deaths in double figures would be a huge milestone and although cases have risen slightly that’s not unexpected with people moving around more over the last month. I hope that we can keep them on the low side.

the weekly map from the same PHE report further underpins the positive direction, for reference map from last week, plus that first published at end of May.

"8/25,662 this time; 14/24,256 last week, 11/19,993 week before, 36/18,913 before that."

Excellent, we can roughly say < 0.05 % positive
but numbers are too low to be any more accurate

642 cases and 85 deaths today.

"Good" figures in terms of deaths. Slightly higher cases than the same day last week but I think the 7 day average is probably a better indicator.

All other info (ONS etc.) Looks positive. Possible that some new cases are coming from the very localised outbreaks in places like Leicester/factories.

I am in Greater Manchester which was a hotish spot but a report in local news yesterday showed that cases across the region were decreasing again. Maybe an odd area that was stable.

A predictably depressing report here from Sky news about the shambolic state of data collection in the early days of the UK testing programme (hopefully improved a bit since then!)
news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-the-inside-story-of-how-uks-chaotic-testing-regime-broke-all-the-rules-12022566

Manchester Evening News reporting on how detailled testing data is STILL not being given to local public health authorities:

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/how-government-blindfolded-frontline-public-18566511

But for the experts tasked with out-running the virus, it isn’t enough.

They don’t need to know roughly where the people are; they need to know exactly where they are and who they are.

This is precisely the information they would have during an outbreak of any other ‘notifiable’ disease -
in other words any communicable illnesss_, such as TB or meningitis,
where cases in their area have to legally be reported to them.

Despite them apparently being owed that information legally, it has not been forthcoming.
....
The normal procedure is if there is a notifiable disease, that the director of public health in the relevant local authority would be given all of the data, including patient details.

“So this system that is running is not consistent with the way we’ve always handled notifiable diseases.”

To put it even more succinctly:
of course public health directors can be trusted with patient data. It’s their job.

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

Sorry, this site says 631 cases not 642. Not sure why there is a discrepancy.

@PumpkinPie2016

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

Sorry, this site says 631 cases not 642. Not sure why there is a discrepancy.

I think it's to do with 11 cases being backdated, though am digging.

Just wondering (and really sorry if this has already been mentioned or is a silly question) if there is any data provided about confirmed cases vs number of tests per area ie county or borough. It seems obvious that more tests would result in more cases confirmed? Sorry if I've missed the obvious but I have Leicester lockdown fog. Asking for a friend

Ah, that would make sense if it's cases added on from previous days. I do wish they would learn how to use footnotes!

I think we need to remember that the the daily new cases total is the number being added to the overall cumulative total. I'm mystified by two different numbers on the "old" and "new" dashboards, especially as the daily death's number does match.

Looking at the detail for England 617 further cases added; these being from:

Yesterday - 34 cases (so just 5% of those added)
7th July - 278 additional cases
6th July - 155 additional cases
5th July - 59 additional cases
4th July - 38 additional cases
3rd July - 21 additional cases
2nd July - 13 additional cases
1st July - 9 additional cases

That gives 607 additional cases, and we then have

June - another 19 cases added
March - another 9 cases added

So 28 more giving 635 additional cases,

but

May - reduced by 4 cases
April - reduced by 13 cases
Feb - reduced by 1 case

so that further reduction of 18 cases gives 617 additional cases overall added for England today. :)

At the rate we are going there will soon be no cases left in February; 58 reported in England in the file published 2nd July and down to 46 in the file published today.

Looking at the numbers another way let's take 29th June

on 2nd July the figure for cases for June 29th stood at 547
then has gradually increased with each new daily set of figures published so:

3rd July - 597
4th July - 624
5th July - 635
6th July - 639
7th July - 646
8th July - 659
9th July - 667

Another wanting to say thank you for these threads. I always come here to re set when becoming overwhelmed with reporting....which is quite often

With the latest information from the WHO regarding the growing evidence of covid being airborne, is anyone else surprised by the just announced, further reopening in the leisure sector? I would think that this would be put on hold before the evidence is either proven or disproven.

Yes, we can socially distance in gyms, for example, but the latest findings suggest that air conditioning seems to create a breeding ground for the virus and surely you couldn't open gyms without air conditioning....

The numbers are made up
news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-inside-story-of-how-uks-chaotic-testing-regime-broke-all-the-rules-12022566

I was told a few weeks ago by someone involved in setting up certain systems many years ago that there's been no use of channels of communication between testing centres and gps (or there hadn't; it may be changing?).

So gps were unaware of positive tests but also they have well set up methods of communicating that to other agencies who can make decisions. It seems ridiculous that that's not been happening and maybe it has in some areas as some nhs trusts will have the ability to set up certain things. But may explain the lack of knowledge around local cases.

(Lack of knowledge held by local structures)

@boys3 stupidly, I never realised that I honestly thought the figure each day was the number of new cases in the last 24 hours.

When I looked at the public health England graph of cases by specimen date, they are always so much lower which really confused me

So, essentially, there isn't 631 new cases today because some will be historic cases?