Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

What about the South Korean study

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article

How does this impact on understanding of secondary aged DC when schools reopen?

There are a number of studies that suggest that at primary level children seem not to be spreaders to any great degree.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-19/covid-s-spread-in-schools-is-questioned-in-latest-nordic-study
(looking at Sweden vs Finland)

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/school-children-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows (this is from a pre-lockdown study, so no preventative measures such as masks)

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening-idUSKBN2341N7

This should be caveated strongly with the comment that the primary school systems in these countries are likely to be different to the UK (smaller class sizes for a start), which may contribute to differences.

Data on Secondary schools is harder to come by (Sweden did close the schools for the over 15s, for example). Israel appears to have experienced significant issues after re-opening schools, with reports being that it is mostly in schools for older pupils who are not social distancing.

In the latest PHE study, there were 22 educational settings that had at least 1 linked case testing positive, with 27 the week before.

@CKBJ cross posted

@KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain
We did!

But the key point then has to be
find a way to open the schools
There is no safe - there never was
there needs to be practical and functional
so as not to destroy the education of cohorts of future voters

@KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain

What about the South Korean study

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article

How does this impact on understanding of secondary aged DC when schools reopen?

That study is interesting though has a very small sample size in the relevant ages (29 aged under 10, 124 aged 10-19, with only 42 secondary cases in the latter group). However, it's not as simple as it looks.

The infection rate seems to climb unfeasibly between aged 0-9 and 10-19 (5.3% -18.6%) which suggests there is a wide range for the 10-19 age group, and it's a very unhelpful grouping - it essentiallyl lumps in young adults likely to be working etc with much younger kids. Not helpful.

What's very interesting, though, is that Alasdair Munro (Clinical Research Fellow, Paediatric Infectious Diseases at Southampton, on Twitter) says he has seen the raw data behind this and in almost all of the secondary cases from the children, they (understandably) shared the same source initial exposure - in other words, it's just as likely they and their families all caught it from the same source, rather than the child catching it and then spreading it.

So statistically it really doesn't say anything one way or other.

I do think it ought to be noted that Munro has a distinct agenda and always has done.

LQ just seen your earlier post. I don't really trust a lot of data coming out about young people, as it takes a very small time to find something that contradicts or clouds. I do know that there has been high levels of sickness on Swedish schools and something of a bullying culture.

But what I do know is that a lot of UK schools are banning mask wearing at all and visors are allowed in a few cases but visors offer little protection iirc. There is also a distinct lack of handwashing facilities in schools and no extra funding for cleaning.

The Swedish study writes about spread amongst children. many many adults work in schools.

I don't have an answer to this but I know the current government guidelines do very little to protect anyone and , yet, everyone else (well, nearly) must work in a Covid secure workplace.

In the long term I would have loved a side effect of all of this for people to reflect on school class sizes, working conditions, funding building design, health and safety practices and an exam obsessed culture.

Tis not to be.

@Piggywaspushed

I do think it ought to be noted that Munro has a distinct agenda and always has done.

Very possibly. Certainly a degree of cognitive bias.

In this case though, it's pretty clear from reading the study itself that it has severe limitations, and the study itself explicitly says - ""we could not determine the direction of transmission".

It all helps to build a picture overall, but this study doesn't do what the obvious press statement says it does.

In the long term I would have loved a side effect of all of this for people to reflect on school class sizes, working conditions, funding building design, health and safety practices and an exam obsessed culture.

I completely agree (as a parent and a school governor). So much could be taken from this but I fear it won't.

I think the issue is one of these studies do ! The oft quoted NSW study really was nonsensical.

It's a bit like how Caroline Criado Perez points out under research in medical sciences of women : the same seems to be happening with older teens, really here.

Nothing will change. Well, anything that does, won't be for the benefit of either children or teachers! And, yet, they claim to be worried about wellbeing.

Hey ho!

Piggy
How long do you think your vulnerable pupils should stay out of school for ?
There is no safe
There never was
So what steps would work at your school to get all of the kids back in.
there is no one size fits all
but keeping schools shut is doing immense damage

teachers need to come up with solutions
not blocks

Anyone have any stats about clusters or numbers of community outbreaks linked to more children being at school this last month, say?

UK or elsewhere.

Trying to look at risk factor for Sept (though obviously a lot could change if people are moving around on hols in UK/abroad over the summer).

I think I saw something a while back to say 40 cases in the community in UK were being linked to school transmission.

Have France and Germany done Ok? (though am supposing they had less cases in general per 100 000 than us - we seem to be top of the pops on that score )

Trouble is for all eh says he has Gavin Williamson has not consulted with teachers once.

I did say I don't have an ideal solution but I am not sure ramming them all back in and telling teachers to try to stay 2m away from everyone is it! My solution would definitely involve funding.

There are stats on outbreak in schools (and other places) which come out weekly teapot. 59 last week I think.

I take it you mean vulnerable as in economically, not medically? Because no one seems to be unduly focusing on the latter, must say.

I have been worrying about the other kind of vulnerable for along time. Covid 19 did not invent this disadvantage. Listening to the government , you would think it did. There was negligible interest or investment in these children before _ in fact there were swingeing cuts to their services.

@Shoots
Thank you I have been following all your posts.

"49 incidents* were from educational settings where 22 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2"

*confirmed outbreaks of acute respiratory infections i.e. two or more laboratory confirmed cases (COVID-19, influenza or other respiratory pathogen) linked to a particular setting or situations where an outbreak is suspected. All suspected outbreaks are further investigated by the HPT in liaison with local partners and a significant proportion do not meet the criteria of a confirmed outbreak e.g. suspected cases test negative for COVID19 or other respiratory pathogens, or cases are subsequently found not to have direct
links to the setting.

from the ONS - I think that's the most recent one (week 29) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/901803/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_29_FINAL.pdf

30 kids in a class, no distancing, no masks.

60 kids mixing at lunchtime.

I know kids less likely to suffer a complex illness but they could take it home to people who may.

I don't know what the answer is - money for more space probably so they can distance. Seems crazy workplaces and shops are all supposed to be Covid secure and yet schools are left trying to do risk assessments and working with very little room for manouvre.

I can't see how this is going to go well this winter. Even if you send a symptomatic kid home they could've infected 2 more kids next to then that day etc. I have seen a classroom this week ready for Sept - a few feet between desks if that - was as good as it got.

The early deaths of health care workers were mainly BAME. That was certainly noticeable very early on and possibly before the request for the newly retired to return. Anecdotally health authorities promised the retired that they would do the back up work, rather than treating Covid patients but with no PPE you might well pick it up within the hospital from other health care staff.

Some people wouldnt have wanted to return to desk work and took the risk.

There are not many 80 year old health care staff, it's too demanding for that to be possible.

Trump was proudly boasting about Americas low death rate today. likely that in America people are not getting tests and not getting into hospital - what are the excess death figures for America?

Suspected outbreaks in educational settings, with confirmed outbreaks in brackets (e.g. the suspected number is the number reported to PHE as possibly involving 2 or more infections, the confirmed number is those that actually did involve 1 or more laboratory confirmed infection). The total number of suspected outbreaks across all settings has actually been declining again since Week 25, from 223 to 169 in Week 28 (6-12 July).

Week 22: 16 (9)
Week 23: 15 (9)
Week 24: 32 (21)
Week 25: 49 (23)
Week 26: 43 (18)
Week 27: 56 (27)
Week 28: 49 (22)

@torydeathdrug so educational setting currently similar in transmission rates to care home settings then for week 29 (even though numbers much lower that peak obviously).
49 cases. Guess it doesn't tell us how many settings and numbers of people who are generally in those settings at present, or who is catching it - primary/secondary age children, college students in halls, teachers, cleaners...

Interesting.

America excess deaths jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

Outbreaks everywhere are declining but educational settings are a significant chuck of the total. Probably account for fewer infections than the big meat factory spikes though.

A problem with the schools data from the UK isthat there was no testing
In March lots and lots of teachers and kids stayed home
but were never tested
so we have no real idea about kids

Sweden has to be the best comparator
bcause the Korean education system is so different

asking for loads of extra money
FOR WHAT
what do you want funded ?
Smaller class sizes - cannot be done without building extra classrooms
longer school days ? really
WHAT needs to change ?

because keeping kids away from education is doing very severe long term damage to them

@KisstheTeapot14 only 22 of those outbreaks were coronavirus.