Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

You haven’t got anything better to do @Jullyria? Ffs. You’re on the wrong website. Very few people here are going to care

Covid Zoe app have changed how they analyse and present their data based on symptom and tests they've done which they say is in line with the estimates by ONS.

covid.joinzoe.com/data

Explanation

covid.joinzoe.com/post/data-update-prevalence-covid

@Derbygerbil
This study talks about exposure to Covid within households. I find it baffling that not everyone in a household gets infected, or not everyone in household has antibodies despite being symptomatic. It is only a small study but they found that the index patient within the house had antibodies but the rest of the household did not. The other family members had mounted a cellular immune response though.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449v1

Is this not what normally happens with any virus though? We just don't analyse it as much?

We all caught norovirus in the autumn. I was bed sharing with and breastfeeding my then 1 year old. I was able to extract myself and puke in the loo in between feeds all night. Obviously we tried to be clean and disinfect every thing but the elder one was all over the younger one prior to coming down with it. Baby didn't get it. And it's not the breastfeeding as the elder one had enough sickness bugs when I was feeding him.

We've all had other viruses where one of us has mysteriously avoided catching it, surprisingly also me who has the most day to day physical contact with the children.

@BigChocFrenzy

Derby Also, if I understood some other papers correctly -

T cell immunity does not actually prevent someone becoming infected

• it can only cure the infection after it has occurred.

So that person could infect others before being cured.

Immunity to becoming infected can only happen via antibodies, especially IgA

I think there may be a bit of terminology confusion. Infection is the invasion and multiplication of an organism by a disease causing organism. Neither T cells nor antibodies can prevent the initial invasion although the multiplication can be prevented by varying levels. This is called immunity.

Immunity can firstly happen through the innate system, mainly T cells, and cross over immunity in T cells to SARS COV 2 from SARS COV1 has been observed after 17 years. However T cell immunity is probably not effective against high viral load, in older patients with reduced T cells and those with comorbities.

T cells go on to produce cells that produce antibodies. These are more effective against severe infection . Not all vaccines create a sterilising immunity ie one that is able to stop pathogens replicating inside the body eg the polio vaccine is 90% sterilising but it is enough.

Yeah we have examples in our family like that. I never catch my kids colds but I am an early years teacher so used to taking sneezes straight to the face lol. Interestingly my sons nursery teacher had covid in the house. Her husband got it first and then one daughter. Her and their other daughter did not get it. It is just confusing why this happens if we are all susceptible.

In that study though the family did have symptoms so they did catch it, but still didn't have antibodies. The first person ill in the house had antibodies, the others also had symptoms but were negative for antibodies.

Yes Jobr, I'm in sen and ppa so see many different classes. Not much different to eyfs. It's quite peculiar who catches things or not and how it's passed.

I'm not sure this the right place, but I wanted say I love mumsnet. I have downloaded the WHO app, bloody brilliant. I am a HCP I read everything my trust send out about Covid, I have watched webinars, I used to be slightly addicted to the briefings. Nowhere else did I see this APP mentioned.

Damn mine must be broken as it says N/A for everywhere in the U.K. 😣 can anyone tell me what Worthing and West Sussex were yesterday? If you have time, obviously ☺️

@Cusano34 both were zero cases yesterday

@Cusano34 both were zero cases yesterday

@Threesocks ah thank you 😊 that’s what I thought too but then every town, county or region I clicked on said 0 so I wasn’t sure if it was right or had been added yet.

*hadn’t

[quote Cusano34]@Threesocks ah thank you 😊 that’s what I thought too but then every town, county or region I clicked on said 0 so I wasn’t sure if it was right or had been added yet.[/quote]
Hmmm, now I am not sure as all the detail seems to be zero (or at least the quick sample I looked at) ....

Is it that it hasn’t updated or maybe it’s just that there are no new cases? My are was 1 new case last week then zero new ones, which isn’t surprising. Birmingham drops from 10 to zero, so less likely but not improbable.

Have just been looking at this data for my area, my parents area and Leicester which is definitely not zero. No cases in Worthing since June 30th. Can't attach photo atm

Here

The overall count of cases is by date reported (so will be backdating)

Cases by area are by specimen date so there is normally a few days lag. So the most current day or two will be added to over the next few days. there won't have been any processed data that had come through yet for tests actually taken on the 8th (yesterday) and the couple of days before that will be increased over the next few days

For example, this is how Leicester's total builds up over a few days (credit to @rp131 on twitter)

Are the numbers now on Zoe out of a million? It suddenly looks scary again

Yes they're all per million now, so lots more red but no more infections. Looking at the figures the daily cases are flat but the estimate of active cases has dropped dramatically to 23,459. This is mostly due to changes in the way they calculate the symptomatic numbers.

I was a bit alarmed at first too. My area is 122 per million and the population of the town 100,000 so is that roughly 12? I’m rubbish at maths!

@Cusano34

I was a bit alarmed at first too. My area is 122 per million and the population of the town 100,000 so is that roughly 12? I’m rubbish at maths!

They do seem to have a taste for the dramatic.

Yes - 122 cases per million translates to 12 per 100,000.

I went onto the Zoe app and blanched at the sight of all those redder areas after weeks of it all looking nice and pale. Couldn’t work out what the numbers meant and was sad they’ve taken the percentage off! Came straight here to find out what was going on!
My area now says 462 estimated per million.