Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Looking at the latest position still a positive direction, but just not everywhere necessariy going at the same pace - hardly unexpected.

Based on England and where UTLA / LTLA geography confirmed w/e 7th June had 7,306 cases, 13 per 100,000 population. The data for w/c 5th July is probably just about there and gives us 3,674 cases. 6.5 per 100,000 population so halved again. Both these figures should also be seen in the context of peak week cases of over 25,000, and more testing now happening.

There has been another 17% fall between w/e 5th July and w/e 28th June which had 4,410 local authority geography confirmed cases / 7.8 cases per 100,000

As expected regional disparities.

North East halved its case number again - down to 54, and remember where the likes of Gateshead and Sunderland have been earlier in the pandemic. Cases per 100,000 in that most recent week 2.0

Yorks & Humber almost 30% down, but cases per 100,000 still double the all England position at 13.4. Bradford, Sheffield clearly contributing to the cases per 100,000 figure, but both heading in the right direction in terms of falling numbers.

East Mids just over 15% down, although cases per 100,000 at 16.4 highest of any region at the moment - the Leicester effect.

Close to 20% falls in both North West and West Midlands, although respective cases per 100,000 for w/e 5th July 9.5 and 5.1

Small falls in East at 5% but cases per 100,000 down to 4.9

South East flat lining at 4.4 cases per 100,000 in both weeks

South West showed a slight increase, using the Sky approach a whopping 8% increase in case numbers!!!!!!!!!! all of 7 actual cases so going from 89 one week to 96 the next. BUT cases per 100,000 still at just 1.7 for w/e 5th July. I hold Torbay responsible - from w/e 31st May weekly cases had been 1, 1, 1, 1, 0 and then suddenly 6 in w/e 5th July :) still hardly a crisis.

Inner London up slightly week on week from 2.6 to 2.8 cases per 100,000 - but again that is less than half the England figure.

And finally not forgetting the suburbs Outer London another 10% week on week reduction , sitting at 3.6 cases per 100,000

[quote PumpkinPie2016]@boys3 stupidly, I never realised that I honestly thought the figure each day was the number of new cases in the last 24 hours.

When I looked at the public health England graph of cases by specimen date, they are always so much lower which really confused me

So, essentially, there isn't 631 new cases today because some will be historic cases?[/quote]
Does this help? From @rp131 on Twitter; shows you how cases for each day build up as further data comes in on future days.

@PumpkinPie2016 , no need to feel stupid in the slightest, its still the number of new cases added to the total, just that these are spread over a number of days. Taking today's number 75% are made up from cases dated within the past three days, and, frantically trying to remember maths O level over 90% fall within 3rd to 7th July. I only really picked up this up when I started looking back at earlier daily files.

@PumpkinPie2016 I honestly had no idea either, I thought they were from the last 24 hours too!

South Korea showing how contact tracing done:

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-2573_article

"With the latest information from the WHO regarding the growing evidence of covid being airborne, is anyone else surprised by the just announced, further reopening in the leisure sector?
I would think that this would be put on hold before the evidence is either proven or disproven. "

pop There is evidence from the many countries in Europe which opened up several weeks before the UK,
at around the same infection level then,
that
it is safe to do so without infections or deaths rising significantly

• in fact they've gone down further

e.g. Germany:
4 May pt schools
16 May gyms, playgrounds, hairdressers, beauticians
18 May restaurants & pubs outdoors

• end May indoors

Infections here so far have been mostly at meat plants, plus a few care homes & churches, large family parties
No outbreaks so far traced back to reopening either leisure or schools

What may be important when reopening is keeping the SD rules, including mask wearing
and having effective track & trace for local outbreaks

Berlin public transport just added a new incentive for mask wearing: 50 € fine if you are caught without and not exempted.

@Prokupatuscrakedatus

Berlin public transport just added a new incentive for mask wearing: 50 € fine if you are caught without and not exempted.

How can you prove exemption? Here it seems to be on self-id, essentially.

I haven't been on public transport, but all the buses that go by seem to have 100% compliance.

So do shops, hairdressers, nail bars etc here
e.g. at my dentist checkup today - the staff were all just in a simple face mask, no visors, maybe those are reserved for drilling

Thank you everyone -I understand now

It's been a long week trying to get my head around the plans for full secondary school returns in September!

I've never seen anyone without a mask here where they are compulsory,

..... so it must be a far smaller % of people who genuinely can't wear them than on MN

I think I read it is a form signed by a doctor
I'd expect something official here, not "self ID"

and masks for DC too, from age 6+ seems to have worked Ok

However, I always did see small kids far less often with their DPs in shops here than in the UK
Shopping is bloody boring for kids - I can remember that 55 years on !

pumpkin Article surveying school openings in several countries:

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks

Also

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/how-sweden-wasted-rare-opportunity-study-coronavirus-schools

On 19 May, the Swedish Public Health Agency announced preliminary results from antibody surveys of 1100 people from nine regions.

They reported that antibody prevalence in children and teenagers was 4.7%,
compared with 6.7% in adults age 20 to 64
and 2.7% in 65- to 70-year-olds.

"surely you couldn't open gyms without air conditioning...." 😂

Pop None of the 4 gyms I've attended had a/c "
(various towns over decades in Germany)
They claim it's for environmental reasons, but I'm sure it's cost-saving too

.... And the last 2 sumemrs we've had 40C heatwaves

My current gym said they were putting in a/c during their closure, but if so it hasn't been switched on yet

However, with some reports of the virus overwhelming a/c filters at some meat plants etc
that may be a deliberate precaution on advice

Re Gyms and aircon

in Europe HEPA filters ( or at least space for them) are standard on many aircon units
HEPA stops coronaviruses of all types

in the USA HEPA filters are unheard of

in Europe very few heating systems are blown air
in the USA its standard

therefore rules for one area may not apply to another

@BigChocFrenzy

"surely you couldn't open gyms without air conditioning...." 😂

Pop None of the 4 gyms I've attended had a/c "
(various towns over decades in Germany)
They claim it's for environmental reasons, but I'm sure it's cost-saving too

.... And the last 2 sumemrs we've had 40C heatwaves

My current gym said they were putting in a/c during their closure, but if so it hasn't been switched on yet

However, with some reports of the virus overwhelming a/c filters at some meat plants etc
that may be a deliberate precaution on advice

The new Govt guidance says ventilation systems should be 100% fresh air and not recycle air from one area to another, and makes some other recommendations about putting it on full speed and changing filters more regularly, etc.

USA

Unlike in Europe, the USA reopened too early, has politicised masks
and is paying the price, especially in the South & West

~ 60,000 cases yesterday alone - amazing compared to the Uk's 3 digits
Total > 3 million cases
and another 948 deaths

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus&variant=show&region=TOPBANNER&context=storyliness_menu

On Thursday, cases were decreasing in only two states - Vermont and New Hampshire.

As of Tuesday, the country’s daily number of new cases had increased by 72 percent over the past two weeks.

And by Wednesday, 24 states had reported more cases over the past week than in any other seven-day stretch of the pandemic.

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group: Is COVID-19 Seasonal?

https://henrytapper.com/2020/07/09/is-covid-19-seasonal/

The study found that the most affected cities were located within a narrow geographic band (broadly 30°N to 50°N)
and that they had similar mean temperatures (between 5°C and 11°C).

This study suggested that, based on climatic conditions in March and April, community spread was likely to affect areas north of the existing areas at risk.
In particular, Eastern and Central Europe, the UK, the Northeastern and Midwestern United States were areas mentioned as being at risk during March and April

In addition, recent clusters of reported cases of COVID-19 in meat packing facilities in Germany and the United States are also indicative that
temperature and humidity are likely to be factors in the spread of COVID-19
– the environment in these facilities is cold and humid; with people working very close together.
.....
The physiology behind relative humidity and infection is not fully understood or proven,
but it is hypothesised that we may be less able to clear our airways of trapped pathogens at lower relative humidity,
whilst there may be more aerosolised virus at higher humidity, and hence more exposure opportunity.
......
The human immune system also appears to experience seasonality, with higher vulnerability to infection in winter months.
It has been suggested that this is either due to vitamin D or seasonality of melatonin production.
.....
For Northern hemisphere countries, seasonality is likely to mean that
infections will remain at a relatively low level over the summer months, despite the easing of social distancing and other non- pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

However, if it does not prove possible to keep the number of infections to a very low level,
we would expect to see a second wave of infection in the winter months

Latest from ONS

We estimate that an average of 1 in 3,900 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 at any given time between 22 June and 5 July 2020.

Our latest estimates indicate that at any given time during the two weeks from 22 June to 5 July 2020, an average of 14,000 people in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) (95% confidence interval: 5,000 to 31,000)1. This equates to 0.03% (95% confidence interval: 0.01% to 0.06%) of the population in England or around 1 in 3,900 individuals. This estimate is based on swab tests collected from 25,662 participants, of which eight individuals from eight different households tested positive for COVID-19.

....

I am hoping that the sudden surging in the Southern US states suggests that temperature isn't as crucial as that report suggests.

Big choc. The weather theory does not wash with me. That doesn't explain the huge rises in the southern states of the usa right now or in India. Florida is extremely hot and humid as is Texas

whenwillthemadnessend It is cold & humid which increases cases the most
but humidity on its own does to a lesser extent

Also, we shouldn't assume that conditions which are not particularly good for the virus are enough to stop it on their own
.... if too many people have ignored social distancing, mass reopening etc
although it may be part of what is lowering the death rate there

The papers referenced are indicating which conditions are likely to worsen it,
not saying that an absence of these conditions is enough to stop it

People’s behaviour in a hot climates also change. For example, the southern US has more air conditioning that goes on in summer than U.K./Europe. Necessitating cold people (like me) to carry jackets and jumpers to put on indoors.

Weeks ago, I was scratching my head about why Manaus would be the first epicentre in brazil and not Rio or Sao Paolo. But it is a modern city in the middle of the rainforest so potentially humid outside and aircon inside, maybe as a centre for trade it had visitors bringing in cases. I haven’t seen any articles about this to speculate further.

Another who didn't realise cases were added
from previous days.

I knew deaths were reported and added up and the wonderful volcano graph.

Useful to see the data by Local Authority. Do we have similar for deaths?
Deaths in hospitals; are they reported by residential LA ie where they live and caught the virus, or by place of death? The latter is important when a Hospital serves a geographically dispersed population or in my area where both local hospitals are in different counties to that I live in.

Just trying to dig out what is happening on a micro level so I can watch it.

These threads have been so useful. It is interesting there are only hypothetical notions re humidity and spread (not just of COVID). We were taught in the 80s that it was because moist air made it easier to expectorate viruses etc. It seems we have not moved on from that being just an hypothesis! I am going to dig around as This lack is so hard to believe. Airborne spread of Covid seems well substantiated now and relative humidity could be an important factor moving into the winter months.