Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

My presumption on the masks thing is if they make it mandatory for offices they have little strength behind the argument they aren’t required in schools. I know they are horrible to wear and people don’t want to wear them all day at work, yet they make nhs workers do so all day long including office staff working distanced from each other in order for them not to have to isolate to be able to follow their own guidance. I just wish they were honest for once, I’m so frustrated with trying to discern the facts to make an informed decision myself when I feel the information the government gives is to suit its own agenda. Sorry, I’ll get off my soapbox now! That’s why I asked, so I kmow if it actually is right or it’s just what they say so they can make things work how they’d like them to.

To add to what Reastie put, why do receptionists in non Covid areas of hospitals have plastic screens and masks all day when welcoming patients to say audiology. If they are to have such level of protection why not offices?

@reastie - on the data.

They are showing slightly different things.

The one that is all UK is showing all positive tests from Pillar One and Pillar Two throughout the period - they retro-added the Pillar two (the community testing) to the UK total when they started doing this dashboard. So this is the better one to look at for trends.

The one by nation is not; the England data under that does NOT have Pillar 2 testing in prior to 1 July, so the England data in that is much lower for June than the other graph. So whilst the graphs look at first glance to be the same, the overall numbers in the bottom one are much smaller.

Does that help?

538 cases
85 deaths

85 deaths is a reasonable fall so that's good. Hospital data seems to be going roughly in the right direction still so that's good.

Regarding the cases I want to think that there's just testing loads of people in hot spots right now hence finding positive cases that are asymptomatic that otherwise they wouldn't have done. But is there any data out there that makes it clear that this is what is happening?

Wednesday 15 July - 538 / 85
Wednesday 8 July - 634 / 126
Wednesday 1 July - 605 / 176
Wednesday 24 June - 726 / 154
Wednesday 17 June - 912 / 184
Wednesday 10 June - 1,087 / 250
Wednesday 3 June - 1,232/ 365

Wednesday 15 July - 538 / 85
Wednesday 8 July - 634 / 126
Wednesday 1 July - 605 / 176
Wednesday 24 June - 726 / 154
Wednesday 17 June - 912 / 184
Wednesday 10 June - 1,087 / 250
Wednesday 3 June - 1,232/ 365

So this does look as if cases are still going down, although quite slowly.

@Frazzled2207

538 cases 85 deaths

85 deaths is a reasonable fall so that's good. Hospital data seems to be going roughly in the right direction still so that's good.

Regarding the cases I want to think that there's just testing loads of people in hot spots right now hence finding positive cases that are asymptomatic that otherwise they wouldn't have done. But is there any data out there that makes it clear that this is what is happening?

I read they are increasing testing in Blackburn and the council are worried as they know more testing will mean more positives. They have asked the gov / PHE what the criteria is for a local lockdown being introduced but (un)surprisingly they have not heard back yet.

It seems trying to identify cases to help solve the issue could be the trigger for a lockdown.

Today's UK testing levels do not seem to show a marked increase compared to last week. In fact last week had higher numbers in totos at least.

@Frazzled2207

538 cases 85 deaths

85 deaths is a reasonable fall so that's good. Hospital data seems to be going roughly in the right direction still so that's good.

Regarding the cases I want to think that there's just testing loads of people in hot spots right now hence finding positive cases that are asymptomatic that otherwise they wouldn't have done. But is there any data out there that makes it clear that this is what is happening?

I read they are increasing testing in Blackburn and the council are worried as they know more testing will mean more positives. They have asked the gov / PHE what the criteria is for a local lockdown being introduced but (un)surprisingly they have not heard back yet.

It seems trying to identify cases to help solve the issue could be the trigger for a lockdown.

Today's UK testing levels do not seem to show a marked increase compared to last week. In fact last week had higher numbers in totos at least.

yep - despite the reopening shops, pubs, restaurants etc despite kids going back to school, various bank holidays, beach gatherings, and protests the second wave that some people have been desperate for has failed to materialise

I do think we are finding many, many more cases now. For example, I know from family contacts that anyone living in Rotherham was urged to get a test at the end of last week regardless of whether they had symptoms or not. Any mass testing like that is a) a good thing; and b) going to identify more cases than when we just ask people with symptoms to test.

I think in the next week or so we should be seeing deaths in the double digit range every day (possibly down to single digit on Sun/Mon). That is very positive news.

@Frazzled2207

538 cases 85 deaths

85 deaths is a reasonable fall so that's good. Hospital data seems to be going roughly in the right direction still so that's good.

Regarding the cases I want to think that there's just testing loads of people in hot spots right now hence finding positive cases that are asymptomatic that otherwise they wouldn't have done. But is there any data out there that makes it clear that this is what is happening?

hmmm not sure there is - this is Pillar 2 tests by processed date (the bars).

Against that I've put a % for positives; this is the number of positives with a specimen date of the day before, on the assumption tests are mostly processed the day after they are taken.

On average, we have carried out 57,907 P2 tests in July, with an average of 513 postives per day, a 0.89% positivity rate.

I believe, with very little evidence, that PHE look at the percentage testing positive as well as the number of positive tests - high percentage of positives means you are likely to be missing too many people. In their place I would look at hospital admissions and deaths too - rising hospital admissions or deaths means more likely to go into lockdown.

The governments attitude to masks in offices is based on a couple of things - first that you should keep replacing the masks when they are damp for them to be fully effective and more importantly that they are uncomfortable and people would not wear them/ be more sympathetic to the NHS staff who have to do so. Face shields are less uncomfortable and might help a bit in deflecting particles from coughs and sneezes. Offices could have temperature checks at the door too and a policy of sending home those with temperatures.

In future offices should have UVB lights as well as filters in their air conditioning units. It's not proven to degrade viruses but seems likely.

And the recent people who want to make unfounded comments ignoring the data can STFU - this is adata thread. It's quite clear that there ARE outbreaks around the country and that a second wave is only being avoided because some people are still being sensible.

Can we not just be given figures for positivity, ie proportion of positive tests, seems obvious, imho? And that those who decide on lockdowns use those? Although I suppose the change from testing just symptomatic people to all inevitably means a lower proportion of tests will be positive?

Not sure!

@SellFridges

I do think we are finding many, many more cases now. For example, I know from family contacts that anyone living in Rotherham was urged to get a test at the end of last week regardless of whether they had symptoms or not. Any mass testing like that is a) a good thing; and b) going to identify more cases than when we just ask people with symptoms to test.

I think in the next week or so we should be seeing deaths in the double digit range every day (possibly down to single digit on Sun/Mon). That is very positive news.

Looking at deaths as day of death not day reported, we've been under 100 every day since June 27. It just doesn't look that way given the way the data is reported, of course.

Thank you @PatriciaHolm, that makes sense, it’s the pillar 1/2 thing.

@RhubarbJelly even non patient facing nhs workers, so far as I’m aware have to wear masks even if they’re tucked away in a well ventilated office never seeing any patients. It just isn’t fully adding up to me.

Anglesey had lots of positive cases - and no suggestion of a new lockdown. It was clear that the increase was due to a factory, after the initial spike the y rapidly went down to zero cases because Wales was behind England in relaxing lockdown.

Contrast it with Wrexham - source of the spike another meat factory but less stringent lockdown and an ongoing level of infection.

And it's very difficult to make any sense of deaths in America because deaths dont normally occur immediately, they are weeks or months after the initial infection. Different states are in totally different places with the level of infection with some still out of control.

Reastie - stop trying to make it add up, because it doesnt. The government wants office workers back buying coffees and sandwiches to boost the economy. They know that infection can spread rapidly in a working environment.

NHS staff know just how nasty this infection can be if you get it. They are also threatened with not working if they dont comply with stupid restrictions. The NHS worker alone in an office doesnt need a mask, the office worker being infected by a colleague who spent the weekend in the pub could have avoided it..

@Frazzled2207

538 cases 85 deaths

85 deaths is a reasonable fall so that's good. Hospital data seems to be going roughly in the right direction still so that's good.

Regarding the cases I want to think that there's just testing loads of people in hot spots right now hence finding positive cases that are asymptomatic that otherwise they wouldn't have done. But is there any data out there that makes it clear that this is what is happening?

in terms of cases, and taking the just over 500 reported in England (as that is where almost all of them are)

Cases are assigned to 149 upper tier LAs - based on today's reported number:

79 are accounted for by just two local authorities ; Leicester and Bradford, so around 15% of the total cases in England

257 cases are accounted for by 15 LAs (incl Leicester and Bradford)

37 LAs (so 25 % of the total) account for 381 (approx 75%) of cases

47 LAs had 0 cases in today's figure; and the bottom 75 had just 27 cases in total between them.

It is worth also remembering that today's figure does not relate to cases with a specimen date of yesterday. For England it comprises:

14th July - 18 cases
13th July - 335 cases
12th July - 45 cases
11th July - 46 cases
10th July - 36 cases
9th July - 10 cases
8th July - 15 cases

then various corrections going back as far as 16th March specimen date.

The rate of decline has slowed in the last week or but case numbers have still more than halved again as compared to the position at the start of June.

The next step change, apologies on this for sounding like a broken record / spotify the day after an i-phone software update, will be more challenging because in a lot of areas cases really are now at really quite low levels. The virus has not gone away so we are likely to see blips like Leicester, Bradford, Blackburn, the farm in Herefordshire that will disproportionately impact the overall number of cases.

PatriciaHolm

Great point around day deaths are attributed to being already below 100 a day. I was thinking more on rolling average, but I’ll keep an eye on that too now.

For people in an office, surely some bits of the day are higher risk than others. DH's office has so far only got a few people back in, on a voluntary basis. They are asking people to wear masks when moving about the office and in communal areas like toilets and hallways, but not when they are sitting at their socially distanced desks. That makes sense to me. I thought that was what some of the continental countries were doing too?

What will really matter in an office is whether your colleagues cough or sneeze near you. So you might want the hay fever sufferers to be wearing masks wherever they are and no-one with a cold allowed in the office.

They are asking people to wear masks when moving about the office and in communal areas like toilets and hallways, but not when they are sitting at their socially distanced desks.

These are also the official rules in our office but no-one follows them. People wear masks in the lobby but take them off as soon as they get out of the elevators.

Even our colleagues in HK and Tokyo do not wear masks all day long.

@BigChocFrenzy

Masks in school classrooms also comes up against feasibility, especially in primary schools.

I hope staff in all classes will explicitly be allowed to choose to wear masks / visors if they wish

I was going to suggest that if they insisted in offices school staff would be pointing it out as it states PPE not needed.

And quite rightly too.

The science doesn't change to fit the agenda of the venue or the government!

@BigChocFrenzy

Masks in school classrooms also comes up against feasibility, especially in primary schools.

I hope staff in all classes will explicitly be allowed to choose to wear masks / visors if they wish

I was going to suggest that if they insisted in offices school staff would be pointing it out as it states PPE not needed.

And quite rightly too.

The science doesn't change to fit the agenda of the venue or the government!

@BigChocFrenzy

Masks in school classrooms also comes up against feasibility, especially in primary schools.

I hope staff in all classes will explicitly be allowed to choose to wear masks / visors if they wish

I was going to suggest that if they insisted in offices school staff would be pointing it out as it states PPE not needed.

And quite rightly too.

The science doesn't change to fit the agenda of the venue or the government!