Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

Another study on T cells published today. They again found cross reactive T cells in 50% of unexposed people. Interestingly, they didn't react to the "cold coronaviruses" and they suggest they are from an unknown coronavirus or animal coronaviruses.
They also looked at T Cells in recovered Covid patients and found they had produced T Cells.
Quite a heavy read but interesting!

What do we make of the latest developments in isreal?
www.ft.com/content/224fa625-657c-4ffb-a6a0-a40e04d685b9

What will really matter in an office is whether your colleagues cough or sneeze near you.

The problem is asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic transmissions. We started asking people to stay at home with any cold or flu like symptoms from early March. We still had a "mini-spreading" event when one pre-symptomatic individual passed C19 to three people out of a big group during a meeting. We were all sitting in the conference room and the infected person did a lot of talking. He is generally quite loud.

All the four people (the spreader and three others) got tested privately and had their diagnosis confirmed.

Sorry that one is a bit out of date

www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains

Worrying how many times infections were down to schools.

The key points from that study have been tweeted by the lab:
Bertoletti Lab

1. Infection with #SARSCoV2 induces virus-specific T cells

2. Patients recovered from #SARS 17 years ago still possess virus-specific memory T cells displaying cross-reactivity to #SARSCoV2

3. Over 50% of donors with no infection or contact with SARSCoV1/2 harbor expandable T cells cross-reactive to #SARSCoV2 likely induced by contact or infection with other #coronavirus strains

The key question: Do these T cells protect from severe #COVID19 ?
The short answer: We don’t know yet…however, indications that pre-existing cross-reactive T cells can be beneficial were reported for influenza H1N1…let’s study if this is also the case for #COVID-19.

We find #SARS-specific T cells 17 years post infection - potentially really good news for long-term immunity and vaccine development

We need more data about T cells,
especially what % of the vulnerable 60+, 70+, 80+ age groups have them

We already know that v few people under 40 die from COVID - providing the hospitals are not overwhelmed by older infected people

I wonder if the 50% with existing T cells are the asymptomatic people? Or if the asymptomatic people are still amongst the 50% that dont have them.

Summary of the most hopeful vaccine candidates

It may well be that several different vaccines prove to work,
so countries will have a choice, depending on their preferred characteristics, availability etc

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1283362913802047489.html

A thread about the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in development.
There are a lot of candidate vaccines in development, but we still have a long way to go.
.............
There are many hurdles to go before we get an effective vaccine.
The lead candidates may not turn out to be protective, or may have intolerable side effects.

But in this crowded field, we'd be hopeful that at least one will be successful

There are many steps after this:
demonstrating quality, safety and efficacy to regulators,
producing billions of doses,
making sure they are distributed equitably,
and making sure that people are happy to get the vaccine.

The speed that we've got to this point is breathtaking
- the editorial notes that 6 years of work has been compressed into 6 months.
But we still have a long way to go.

we all know now that it's best to stay 2 metres away from other people - so no big meetings. However when the hay fever sufferer doesnt realise they also have Covid 2 metres isnt enough.

The Israeli study is worrying, since it suggests a lot got infected through school.

I have hay fever annually, with some symptoms from late March to mid-May

So I wore a mask whenever I was outside, because:

. With the hay fever symptoms, I might not notice for a few days if I were unwell with COVID

. My hay fever symptoms might alarm people !

iirc, there was a study that found pollen allergies might help activate the immune system to combat COVID

I've always kept to the 2m (even though it's 1.5 m here) but I wore a mask especially for the cyclist or jogger that would suddenly shoot from behind me on the path
(I've a hearing disability, so I often don't realise until they've gone by)

and also because I'm a Aspie day dreamer who can find it hard to "stay alert"

BCF did you notice any difference with your symptoms?

This has been a bad year symptom wise for me but it seems to have settled down over the last few weeks as it normally do.

But thankfully intended to be at home when my sneezing was uncontrollable.

That T cell paper suggests another reason for BAME having more problems - less likely to keep pets. I wonder if there are stats on rates of infection among vets and farmers and if they are lower? Perhaps some animals are more likely to promote useful T cells responses - but clearly not Chinese animals.

I think the problem with animals is raw meat for human consumtion and live animals in close proximity, in unhygenic conditions

@Timeforanotherusername

BCF did you notice any difference with your symptoms?

This has been a bad year symptom wise for me but it seems to have settled down over the last few weeks as it normally do.

But thankfully intended to be at home when my sneezing was uncontrollable.

Time Symptoms were unusually prolonged - it's normally only a month but this year lasted over 2 months
However, they were lighter in severity than last year, when I had a fever for a couple of days

There were pollen warnings for weeks here (germany) that levels of some types were unusually high, so I expect it was that.

Infection rate in germany is estimated around only 5%
and as a retired person during lockdown, living alone, getting online groceries, just going out for walks,
I would have been unlikely to catch it

Diagnostic value of skin manifestation of SARS-CoV-2 infection

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.10.20150656v1.article-info

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-skin-rash-can-be-only-covid-19-symptom-and-should-be-fourth-key-sign-study-finds-12029116

A skin rash can sometimes be the only symptom of people infected with COVID-19, a study has concluded.

Three types of rashes are identified in the research by King's College London,
leading those behind the study to call for skin rashes to be included as a fourth key symptom of COVID-19.

Isn’t skin rashes a bit vague of a symptom to be adding to the list? Surely this will mean a lot a potential unnecessary self isolation as so many things can cause these rashes.

I have so many skin issues (regular dermatology visits), I get random skin things that come and go all the time! If I went by this list I might as well stay locked up and get tests every week...

My 4 year old has a really bad viral rash at the minute. I sent photos to the GP and he told me to order a covid test for him as a rash was due to be added to the official symptoms. Just got negative result an hour ago.

They specify the 3 types of skin rashes that are symptoms
So it's not any old skin complaint, but 3 distinctive types

A fever, cough or losing taste / smell are also characteristic of many illnesses,
but are taken as warning signs to test for possible COVID

BigChocFrenzy I can periodically get 2 of the conditions mentioned for no good reason, in fact, I have 1 of them at the moment. Do based on this study should I now isolate and test even though I know I will likely be in this position again in a few weeks? To be clear, my condition is ‘new’ but not unfamiliar.

I hope MiniHatch's rash goes very soon 💐

@lousleftkneelies

BigChocFrenzy I can periodically get 2 of the conditions mentioned for no good reason, in fact, I have 1 of them at the moment. Do based on this study should I now isolate and test even though I know I will likely be in this position again in a few weeks? To be clear, my condition is ‘new’ but not unfamiliar.

===== I recommend you consult your doctor whether it is necessary for you to do this

BigChocFrenzy I have a dermatologist I’ve suffered with them for years. In all likelihood it’s probably just the lichen planus I have which is the same symptoms as one of these but the point is that based on these new added symptoms I would be locked up and regularly tested.

@lousleftkneelies

BigChocFrenzy I have a dermatologist I’ve suffered with them for years. In all likelihood it’s probably just the lichen planus I have which is the same symptoms as one of these but the point is that based on these new added symptoms I would be locked up and regularly tested.

Would you be, if it is a known regular condition ?

That's why I recommended checking with your doctor,
who should know the advice about recurring symptoms, if it becomes one of the check symptoms

BigChocFrenzy yes as it comes and goes and I’m just generally prone to these things and don’t normally give them too much thought or self treat if need be.

Even though it’s a known condition it’s a ‘new’ outbreak so It could only be determined by tests either way as presents with the same symptoms as those now listed.