Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

I read that @BigChoc. Was surprised to see the big about bumping elbows instead of shaking hands. I thought we'd all been told not to shake hands way back in February before lockdown. Do people still need to be told that? Though I also read an article about the factory workers in Leicester who apparently were all shaking hands at the end of a shift, so many there's some communities who haven't really adjusted that behaviour yet.

Firefliess It's hugging friends outside households too

Obviously SD habits have loosened generally in most countries as the deaths have dropped so much

Hence the advice in these areas of rising cases, that people should tighten up SD

Germany

Total cases 200k+
Recoveries 185k+
Deaths 9k+

The average age of confirmed cases has fallen from a peak of 52 to 36,
as the younger & middle-aged go out & socialise much more,
while the elderly remain protected

The % death has fallen from a peak of nearly 7% to about 0.5% - of confirmed cases -
so IFR would be much lower

Hospitalisation rate has also fallen sharply from the 22% peak to 10%

These improvements may also be because of the usual seasonal improvement in immune system, Vit D etc

The sex difference in confirmed cases has also changed:
It was 55% women to 45 % men, but has now switched around to 45% : 55%^

Screenshots:

1. weekly age distribution of confirmed cases
2. weekly age, sex, hospitalisation, deaths of confirmed cases

We have also seen how the USA deaths have fallen, despite their rocketing cases.

Similar combination of factors, imo:

much lower average age of infection
higher immunity in summer
better knowledge of how to treat COVID

mobile.twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1283299277511458816

Israel has gone from 10 cases/day to 1400 cases/day after their PM celebrated the end of the pandemic & told people to go out and enjoy themselves. From one of the best performers to back into lockdown. Cautionary tale about how fragile situation is.

And that is why we shouldn’t be overly worried about a rise in infections - we need to get back to the message that for the overwhelming vast majority of people even if you get Covid you will not suffer serious symptoms.

The virus is not going away - we need to accept that and live with it

Ultimately herd immunity is the only way out

Deaths aren’t currently falling in the US, though.

ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usil&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths

@BigChocFrenzy

We have also seen how the USA deaths have fallen, despite their rocketing cases.

Similar combination of factors, imo:

much lower average age of infection
higher immunity in summer
better knowledge of how to treat COVID

Maybe at a country wide level, because NY/Mass have declined so much but deaths are climbing steadily in some states - California, Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Arizona. The US is having multiple different experiences in different states.

@AlecTrevelyan006

The virus is not going away - we need to accept that and live with it

Ultimately herd immunity is the only way out

herd immunity is a nonsense:

We don't know if immunity lasts more than a few months or a year
Germany has only about 5% with antibodies
If infections and age rises, then we could go back to 7% deaths^

We have to live with it

• which will work IFF we maintain SD precautions, masks etc

We can have most of our "normal" back like this, especially ft schools

[quote MillicentMartha]Deaths aren’t currently falling in the US, though.

ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usil&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths[/quote]

I meant deaths as a % of confirmed / estimated cases, not absolute number

I put this on another thread, where someone claimed the Swedish strategy of "herd immunity" would have been better for the UK than lockdown:

Covid deaths / million population:

UK 660
Sweden 550
Germany 109
Denmark 105
Norway 47

lockdown works:
(but is no longer needed if we stay sensible)

. Sweden has 5 x deaths / million of its neighbour Denmark, culturally similar

. Sweden has nearly 12 x deaths / million of its neighbour Norway, culturally similar

. Sweden even has 5 x deaths / million of Germany - despite Germany having 10 x their population density

. The UK without lockdown would likely have suffered many times more deaths,
especially because of vastly higher population density than the Scandinavian countries

What we don't know is if the virus has become milder - permanently or just over summer -
and how much medical advances have improved survival rates

vs
How much is down to elderly people being better protected - incl by public SD
How much to better immune systems in summer
How much to the virus not being as powerful in summer heat
(yes, we know it can propogate in summer, but the death rate seems lower)

It depends what happens once we enter late Autumn & winter

Will death rates remain so low ?

If so, then that is indeed a game-changer that affects the measures we need to keep in place

@BigChocFrenzy

We have also seen how the USA deaths have fallen, despite their rocketing cases.

Similar combination of factors, imo:

much lower average age of infection
higher immunity in summer
better knowledge of how to treat COVID

Sorry, you meant death rates are falling vs tests. But have testing rates increased to partially account for that as well as your other points?

We don't know for certain the the actual death rate has fallen though. It may just be that we're better at picking up more cases now. (Though hospitals do appear to have figured out what works best, so it's likely there's been some genuine improvement)

we don’t know for certain the actual death rate has fallen though

Looking at the US specifically, I think we can confidently assert this is the position. Cases are very, very high compared with March/April, but death rates lower. This is not just due to more testing; positivity rates in some states are as high as 20% (compared to less than 2% currently in the UK). I agree with Big Choc that it is due mostly to a combination of age profile of current cases, shielding of the vulnerable and better knowledge of effective treatments.

Indeed, given just how much the IFR is affected by age, an overall statistic is pretty meaningless. Much more informative would be to look at how IFR’s have changed over time by age group, as this would give an indication of how better treatments/summer immunity/possible changes to the virus might be influencing the rates. Is anyone aware of any such analysis?

AprilLady I'd add summer temperatures to that list of why IFR may be lower atm

COVID transmits best and seems most active at around 5C, as shown by outbreaks in meat plants around the world

• the largest source of infections by far in Germany

as shown by outbreaks in meat plants around the world

I'm not sure that is supporting evidence for that, since meat plants have another thing as well as low temperatures - not recycling air (because it's expensive to cool it).

Which actually makes them the same as factory sweatshops which also have outbreaks without any cooling.

I’m sure I’m missing something incredibly obvious, but can someone explain to me why the graphs on the gov website coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases have one graph showing cases have been falling overall since May and are now evening out whereas the other shows some increase since early July? It looks like they are measuring the same thing and so I can’t work out why the difference.

Also (whilst I’m here, I hope you don’t mind but I trust your stats and knowledge), Matt Hancock said this morning the reason for masks in shops and not offices was because when you work with people for a long time a mask doesn’t offer protection as it will help for a few minutes but not all day but people are in shops for a short time relatively compared to offices and offices should be social distancing or using other mitigations. Is that factually correct with mask use or are they making things up to suit what they want to do? I understand they may have reasons to not want offices to have to wear masks, but I’m not sure if their reasoning is factually correct.

That confused me too Reastie, especially given the hospital outbreak where they say it was caused by nurses not wearing masks during what must have been a longish training session (as it included lunch). Isn’t that analogous to workers in an office?

Air con was not so much the problem in the recent German outbreak:

Meat plants in Europe are required to have air con to a higher standard than the USA, with fresh air and virus filters

However, there was a still unconfirmed report that these filters hadn't been changed / cleaned sufficiently often to cope with the amount of virus

What the main factors were:

The abattoir broke the SD laws, because "it's just flu"

Managers / foremen pressured workers not to take sick leave, so sick people came in and spread the virus

They also pressured workers to do unpaid overtime if they hadn't finished their quota in their 8 hours

• so they were there for longer -

and speeded up the production line when the inspectors weren't there

So a very bad employer, who broke the rules despite being inspected regularly

I think it's much more likely that they realise it's unrealistic to expect people to wear masks in offices all day long. They're pretty unpleasant to wear. That's presumably why they say they're not required for shop staff, only customers. But I don't know why they don't just say so.

The abattoirs were definitely kept cold - otherwise the lower quality of the meat would soon have been detected !

I agree with offices vs shops it's probably the discomfort of 8 hours vs 30 minutes

Also the greater difficulty of enforcing prolonged mask wearing away from the public gaze

Masks in school classrooms also comes up against feasibility, especially in primary schools.

I hope staff in all classes will explicitly be allowed to choose to wear masks / visors if they wish