Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

The increase in positive tests now is because when outbreaks occur testing in those areas is actually being increased. If we had the data I'd expect it to show more asymptomatic cases being picked up.

Having looked through quite a fe local authorities data what I see is a number of outbreaks (probably not a many as 100 unless you count any minor bump) producing large numbers of positive tests while most local authorities either have few cases or are on a downward path. For the first time since the epidemic began it looks like outbreaks are being identified and dealt with speedily in almost all places.

So although there are more positive cases I'm feeling more hopeful. Still too many outbreaks going on but maybe we'll finally learn from them.

Veneer is a good word Milli

Also though I was in MS first and tbh no one had a real clue or understanding of children with specific additional needs or challenging behaviour. They were often not open to flexibility of approach either.

So long as deaths are continuing to decline, we at least have a reasonably accurate "rear view mirror" of infections, for 2 weeks+ in the past

"Due to the fact that only a handful of children in sen schools were in (I think we had 5 out of around 120 at first, this increased to about 20 later.
At the end for the last 4 weeks we were able to get a very high percentage in only on a rota, around 70%, but I believe that wasn't the case elsewhere. "

neurotrash What were the reasons for the low numbers in SEN schools, until the last month ?
Health conditions of pupil / parent would presumably not account for that many

Did you have to switch to a rota to manage numbers ?

Sorry, my 2nd question wasn't clear
Did you have insufficient space to handle more than 20 students at a time with SD ?

@BigChocFrenzy

So long as deaths are continuing to decline, we at least have a reasonably accurate "rear view mirror" of infections, for 2 weeks+ in the past

Need to keep a bit of an eye on that too; see attached. Declining but vey slowly now and last few days hospital deaths rolling average stable at 23. This will plateau as well; we still have 1,951 people in hospital in the UK and whilst admissions are again slowly down, we are still admitting over 100 people to hospital a day.

patriciaHolm Yes, I've been watching those graphs

I hate to sound callous, but imo that level is "acceptable" if it stays reasonably stable
as the price for reopening the economy

We have to be very careful that the deaths don't start to rise again, of course
and they are still quite a bit higher than some comparable European countries

Reopening on the continent has caused some local outbreaks, but deaths have continued to stay at a v low level
e.g. Germany in single digits most days for weeks

In most countries that have reopened, infections seem to be concentrated more among the young & working age,
who have a v low death rate (so long as the health system is functioning)

The vulnerable elderly seems to be taking more precautions, going by the age / infection charts

This is obviously only an anecdote but relevant to the SEN discussion if only to give another view.

I'll state my bias: I have a child with significant SEN, physical, mental and health related. She has an excellent (IMO) EHCP and attends a brilliant, inclusive mainstream school. She has a full time 1-2-1.

I pulled her from school a week before they closed because I was concerned that she would be vulnerable to COVID. When the shutdown was announced SENCO called me to discuss offering her a place - I declined for health reasons - I got the feeling it was a duty call and they would have discouraged me anyway. By the end of the Easter hols it was clearer that her health issues did not make her significantly vulnerable to the virus. Over the next couple of weeks I started making noises about sending her back but was discouraged - I understand the schools viewpoint on this. Around the beginning of May I officially asked that she return; this was agreed but due to the school trying to figure out the return for nursery, reception and Y1 it was pushed back (she is in one of these years). Eventually I was told that she could return if I was desperate, but that it would be idea if she returned with the rest of her year. Which was ultimately not till 3rd week in June. However she has been back 3 weeks now, her usual 1-2-1 is with her and she is completely happy and learning tonnes so I'm not too unhappy.

I've made it clear that if there is a future general or local lockdown I expect her to remain in school unless there is a good reason not to.

Not sure if that is useful but 🤷‍♀️

It was natural to be cautious before Easter, when so little was known

My friend said they didn't send their child with SEN back until his brother was also able to return,
because it seemed wrong to send the more vulnerable child first.
Now he says they expect both lads to be in ft school from mid-August, no real worries.

Restaurant bookings have shot up since 4 July
but looking at other countries it may take a while to get confidence back to pre-COVID levels

@BigChocFrenzy

It was natural to be cautious before Easter, when so little was known

My friend said they didn't send their child with SEN back until his brother was also able to return,
because it seemed wrong to send the more vulnerable child first.
Now he says they expect both lads to be in ft school from mid-August, no real worries.

Similar here but in our case the one with SEN (the youngest) clearly needed to return - she missed the routine, she didn't engage with homeschooling at all, whereas the older one is coping fine at home and won't 'suffer' from being off till September. It's an odd one though.

@BigChocFrenzy gosh that chart is a stark illustration of the severe economic consequences, in addition of course to the devastating human consequences, of a late lockdown by the UK government.

Um, fading I'm not sure if you want to see how the UK economy as a whole is doing

Predicted to be a V-shaped recession in almost all countries, with GDP rising strongly in 2021 to regain most of this year's losses,

However, Uk is difficult to predict after a deeper fall in GDP than many European countries
and then the end of Brexit transition looming without a trade deal.
Might stretch out the V to a U ?

UK economic output rises 1.8% in May after historic April plunge

https://www.ft.com/content/da302766-b939-46ea-b11c-0f69510b0e2e

I'm predicting a G-shaped recovery. Slow with a brief uptick and then flattens out and goes backwards.

On restaurants - right now demand seems to exceed supply (at least, in London). Quite a few places will only open later in July.

DH and I tried to book something for Saturday evening last week. We were happy with indoor dining and thought reservation should not be an issue but all our favourite restaurants were already fully booked.

The part of the economy that is not doing well is high street. Even people who are fairly relaxed about COVID do not seem to rush back.

Help me understand. Can’t think straight. So the reporting has been the same throughout & overall there is decline. On some threads posters will say....yes but only 50 of those deaths occurred yesterday, the rest are historic. Surely we need to keep looking at it the original way tho as those deaths still happened & that’s the way it’s been reported. Otherwise are we not comparing 2 different figures? Thank you if you can make sense of that.

Agree re restaurants v high street we have done restaurants but not shops because we can buy what we need on line but have missed eating out.

I also think that there is also a big difference between what can open and what has and this seems missing from the narrative our local John Lewis only opened this week although could have opened in June obviously and yes lots of restaurants still shut in London at least half I would say from the totally unscientific evidence from my bike ride on Sunday!

I think businesses themselves have been a lot more reluctant to get back for fear of having an associated covid outbreak as much as customers fear a return.

Just seen this interesting study - compelling evidence for usefulness of masks in stopping transmission.

www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e2.htm

TLDR: Two hairstylists in the USA got (presumably mild) Covid symptoms but carried on working for 8 days before being tested and being found positive for the virus. Over that time, they saw 139 clients between them. They each wore a mask throughout, as, it appears, did almost all (98%) of their clients. Not one of the 139 clients appears to have caught Covid (although only about half were formally tested, so not possible to be totally sure).

The study suggests that one of the two stylists transmitted the disease to the other during a break when they removed their masks.

That's an interesting chart with the restaurant use @Bigchoc. We seem to be on a similar trajectory to Germany, who have since returned to close to normal usage. So maybe we will soon too. Maybe London is different but where I live (town in non hotspot part of England) numbers eating or drinking out seem to be well down overall. Most places are open but half empty, even with their reduced table numbers. No problems booking a table at our local pub at the weekend and places look mostly empty. Possibly Londoners are more relaxed as more of them have had it?

Gingerlemontea Yes, we need to use consistent figures to observe statistical trends,
while also being aware that each daily total is a combination of some of the deaths that occurred in preceding days

Interesting note on worldometers re USA on 14th July

“ NOTE: Washington State retracts 39 deaths: "July 13, 2020: The Department is continuing to work on changes to provide more context to death reporting and report death counts that reflect deaths where COVID-19 caused or contributed to the death. We have made additional steps in this process and are removing 39 from our counts. All of these are natural deaths, and after review it was determined that COVID-19 did not cause or contribute to the death.”

Obviously US are only reporting deaths of CV rather then with CV, which seems out of kilter with UK and other countries

neurotrash What were the reasons for the low numbers in SEN schools, until the last month ?

I can only comment on our place. The original guidance only allowed for a certain number of children and staff in the building. Also due to cleaning schedule. Baring in mind we need a higher ratio of adults and some need to be changed.

More were happy to keep sending them in at ours but the risk assessment which was done with the local health authority (PHE) needed fewer numbers given there was no SD. I think though after a couple of weeks / Easter more parents understood the situation better. We didn't actually have that many needing kw places. Some didn't take full time either.

We need to remember that guidance was issued 1am on the Thursday 19th (or Friday 20th?) and continued to be added to over the weekend. It was utter chaos and everyone erred on the side of caution.

Update from France.
Cases rising in the last week or so. Two mainland department on raised alert. Total clusters 313. ( cluster is more than 3 related cases).
I only look at the weekly now since daily reporting is limited. Think there are now around 80 clusters under investigation.

Week 27 - up to 9 july
Cases 3797 up from 3406 previous week.
Rate of positive tests 1.3 previous week 1.4
Calls to sos medicin up 1503 from 1082
New admission 646 from 666
Intensive care new admissions 73 down from 82
Deaths 124 down from 164
Rate of testing 28 june to 4 july 448 per 100,000 of population
People going to a and e for suspected covid 1330 down from 1402 ( may or may not have covid and be admitted)

Here is the full report.
www.santepubliquefrance.fr/content/download/266456/document_file/COVID19_PE_20200709.pdf

Anecdotally lots of talk in papers about a second wave and the increase in cases.
Is a bit crazy in my area at the moment. No one really paying any attention. Shops pretty good for masks etc but getting less so. Would not be surprised if big increases. All feels like holiday time and in the distant past!
Tax free bonus given go healthcare staff ( between 1000 and 1500 euros) and significant pay rises annoucned yesterday.
And 108 year old discharged from my local hosptial a week or so ago,

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-53399539

emergency measures have been introduced in Blackburn and Darwen in a bid to avoid a Leicester-style local lockdownn*.

People are being urged to abide by new, stricter guidance, in a bid to bring the number of coronavirus cases down,
and are warned a tighter, Leicester-style local lockdown will follow if it doesn't work.

The measures include:

•	<span class="italic">Wearing cloth face coverings in all enclosed public spaces, including workplaces, libraries, museums, health centres and hair and beauty salons</span>

•	<span class="italic">Targeted testing, with residents being told they do not need to have symptoms to be tested</span>

•	<span class="italic">Tighter limits on visitors from another household</span> - no more than two people at a time

•	<span class="italic">People asked to bump elbows in place of handshakes and hugs</span> with those outside of their immediate family,

Health officials have warned that
if infection rates continue to rise after two weeks the local authority will "have to consider reversing some of the national lockdown lifting measures locally".