Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Belgium reported no new coronavirus-related deaths yesterday for the first time since 10 March

Belgium has one of the highest deaths / million in the world,
but since lockdown has sharply reduced cases

Officials meet on 15 July to discuss further reopening

David Spiegelhalter: "What have been the fatal risks of Covid, particularly to children and younger adults?"

From June, but illustrates the difficulties and unfairness of any national policy, which will be driven by the numbers of deaths and by economics.

Teachers concerns naturally include the increased risk for the over-45s,
although this risk remains small even for 60-year-old teachers - provided community infection remains so low

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-risks-of-covid-particularly-to-children-and-younger-adults-a5cbf7060c49

people of different ages have been exposed to dramatically differing risks.

Fatalities among school-children have been remarkably low.
......
Covid death rates have a fairly precise exponential increase with age, increasing at around 12–13% each year,
corresponding to a doubling every 5–6 years.

This means that a 20-year age-gap increased the risk by around 10-fold.

So, compared to a 20-year-old, an 80-year-old had 10 x10 x10 ~ 1000 times the risk of dying.

The Covid population death rates are roughly proportional (ie parallel on a logarithmic scale) to ‘normal’ death rates for over 45s,
but well below normal rates for younger ages.

Note these are in addition to the normal rates.

The lesser relative effect of Covid on younger groups could be partly because their ‘normal’ risk will be more strongly influenced by accidents and non-natural causes,
whereas Covid seems to multiply the risk of ‘natural causes’ - it just seems to take any frailty and multiply it.

I have 2 on the sen register, 1 with EHCP. Neither have been in school. Lad with EHCP is year 13 so there's nothing for him to do. Other lad doesn't get classed as "vulnerable" I guess, in amongst other kids with social services involvement etc. and isn't in a priority year.

398 cases and 138 deaths, deaths down on last Tuesday, things look a bit more positive.

Today's data is out.
138 deaths (quite high, but it's the weekend lag thing)
398 cases - lowest yet I think

The lesser relative effect of Covid on younger groups […]
whereas Covid seems to multiply the risk of ‘natural causes’ - it just seems to take any frailty and multiply it

Do we have info on how the increase in deaths from social isolation add/remove on this, difficult obviously as social isolation in young so often goes alongside illness anyway, but does this mean the increased risk from isolation alone in younger groups could be higher than the increased risk from covid?

Less relevant now, lighter lockdown means isolation is likely not necessary for many, but could be relevant to some groups who are still heavily isolated.

Today's data is out.
138 deaths (quite high, but it's the weekend lag thing)
398 cases - lowest yet I think

155 deaths for the previous two Tuesday's so down on that.

From the review on the previous page "Finally, a comprehensive review of face shields (or visors) suggest a protection efficacy slightly higher than surgical masks initially, from immediate exposures, but which decreases over time as the finer aerosols produced start to be inhaled underneath the visor [Roberge 2016, pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26558413/]. Note that to optimise protection the face shield has to curve round the sides of the face to the ears, and to extend down long enough in front of the face, to reduce aerosol entry from the sides and underneath the shield as much as possible. Face shields/visors have the added advantage that they include eye protection, as well as being washable and reuseable, being less claustrophobic, and generally allowing mostly normal communication if worn instead of a face mask, though both can be worn in combination for added protection"

Think I'll have another go with a plastic bottle.

The only school I know about was a special school. They stayed open but had to beg people to make them PPE.

Worldometer says new cases is 1240??! What's that all about?

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Worldometer is reporting 1,240 new UK cases today. Difference between this and the 398 cases is explained in their note:

"The Government reported 398 new cases today in addition the total lab-confirmed cases for Wales now include Pillar 2 tests which means that the total number of UK lab-confirmed cases has increased by 1,240 since yesterday."

@hayfeverhellish it's because figures from Wales now include pillar 2 cases so they have added on historic cases.

So,there are 398 'new' cases plus some historic pillar 2 from Wales meaning 1240 added to the cumulative total.

Cross post @hayfeverhellish! Sounds like the difference is some historic Pillar 2 cases being included

Ah phew !

Just saying Thankyou

Anecdotal, but our provision was able to offer places for all students with EHCPs. Some parents and carers choose not to take the places up. Two colleagues from schools from different schools in the North of England also offered places. Perhaps we were rarities though. I'm not sure we'll ever get a statistically sound account of what the overall picture was.

Hmmmm not liking the look of this atm. This is Cases by specimen day and it's 7 day rolling average, up to July 10 (no point doing later as they will be added to; in fact the 10th probably will). Definitely stable at the moment and not declining, I don't think....

The 11th is low and probably will stay so, as it's a Saturday - look back at the graph and Saturdays are normally a trough. We'll see more towards the end of the week when we have a few more days of data by specimen date.

Hmm that is a worrying line - could that be related to the cluster of positives eg the farm in Herefordshire? I can’t remember the dates So sorry if that sounds thick!

Is there an update on the Leicester lockdown?

Looking at other European countries:
as relaxation continues, cases will probably drop to a plateau at some stage
and then stay about that level, probably until a late Autumn / winter rise

However, it's a bit early in the reopening process to plateau ,
so hopefully just a temporary pause before further decline

I might be being hopelessly optimistic here but do we expect it to drop much at this stage? With things opening up and more targeted testing around hotspots (the government's website implies anyone in Leicester can get a test) I would have thought a period of steady case numbers might not be unexpected. Need to keep an eye to ensure it doesn't start a step incline though as that would imply management of hotspots isn't working

Quite a few special schools closed to all bar key workers children, so many DC with EHCPs weren’t able to attend at all. Special schools may well have struggled to have all their staff in in April/May. Also some schools have used the relaxation of the law regarding EHCP pupils during coronavirus to exclude those who ‘couldn’t be properly supported to socially distance.’ Just because the headline said all pupils with EHCPs could go to school, the reality was somewhat different.

Regarding Sen, just my judgement as an Sen teacher, I would have said over all it was probably a similar % proportion to those without EHCPs. Due to the fact that only a handful of children in sen schools were in (I think we had 5 out of around 120 at first, this increased to about 20 later. At the end for the last 4 weeks we were able to get a very high percentage in only on a rota, around 70%, but I believe that wasn't the case elsewhere.

Sen primary schools weren't told to get r, y1 and 6 in, it was "just as many as you can however you can."

Some pmld Sen schools would have had pupils with certain health conditions too which would have reduced numbers.

A large number of children with additional needs in early primary who are likely to be wrongly placed would have not been able to attend due to challenging behaviour and the school not able to meet their needs safely (not saying that's right; there are big flaws in the inclusive system and many children tend to move to Sen provision in middle primary, around y3/4/5.)

Also some schools have used the relaxation of the law regarding EHCP pupils during coronavirus to exclude those who ‘couldn’t be properly supported to socially distance.’

Yep that's a good description. OTOH, sen schools would have made those children who had potential to be extremely unsettled a priority for the parent's and the child's sake.

I don't know how pupil referral units would have fared either.

Yes, Neurotrash, (good username!) I was thinking of MS schools using that reason/excuse. Typically MS schools who only had a veneer of inclusiveness in the first place.

@Littlebelina

I might be being hopelessly optimistic here but do we expect it to drop much at this stage? With things opening up and more targeted testing around hotspots (the government's website implies anyone in Leicester can get a test) I would have thought a period of steady case numbers might not be unexpected. Need to keep an eye to ensure it doesn't start a step incline though as that would imply management of hotspots isn't working

True. France seem to be averaging 500 cases a day from July 3-10, but Italy seems to be down to about 200.

Admissions to hospital are steadily down though which is a good indicator, and nothing is particularly worrying on NHS Digital triage data at the moment.