Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

@vengeancer

*Around 22% of children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) or a social worker were attending an education setting on 18 June, up from 18% on 11 June." and* "Around 27% of children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) or a social worker were attending an education setting July, up on 2 July."

my DC's special school (where all kids have an ehcp) had only a handful of children in even though there are 200 on roll. and it has been the same with all other special schools I am aware of. I would take the above figures with a pinch of salt. They might have forgotton to put the comma in 2.7 per cent seems far more realistic.

Note - it bundles EHCPs with "or a social worker" - so it's trying to look at "vulnerable children" as a whole I think, not just EHCPs.

Is anyone able to point me in the direction of data about school outbreaks since 1st June (wider opening)? It would be especially helpful to be able to find data on teenagers... if it exists!

vengeancer It should be clear that I'm not peddling the spin - I'm trying to establish the facts,
which is what these threads are for

Education & child services have been saying that parents are not taking up places
i.e. not the fault of the authorities

That is the narrative that is out there and is what will be believed
unless it can be publicly refuted with some sort of evidence in the same newspapers

Maybe some MNers can write to e.g. the Times, Guardian and see if they can get an article published detailling their own experience,
because atm there is no narrative about this - opposing the official line - that the general public can read.

@SE13Mummy

Is anyone able to point me in the direction of data about school outbreaks since 1st June (wider opening)? It would be especially helpful to be able to find data on teenagers... if it exists!

PHE's surveillance document monitors "incidents" (defined as both confirmed or suspected outbreaks of 2 or more infections) by place including "educational settings", but doesn't differentiate between nurseries/primary/secondary schools unfortunately. For the last week we have data for.

"55 incidents were from educational settings where 27 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 "

unless it can be publicly refuted with some sort of evidence in the same newspapers

But it is publicly refuted by parents and many organisations supporting children with SN. there is a huge outcry. but it is hard being heard if you represent a group which makes only a small percentage of a cohort and whose education is seen by most people (also the general public) as dispensable. Disabled children and their lack of education are just not important enough to make headline news. Our kids are a footnote at most.

I doubt the data exists on how often children didn't attend due to parental choice Vs not being offered a place tbh. And the issue isn't always clear cut. My nurse friend initially declined a place for her DC due to being anxious about Covid, but later wanted them to return only to be told there were now no spaces available and she was too late - so initially choice, but later not. And some schools have been very negative and discouraging rather than actually saying kids can't come.

PatriciaHolm In your DC's special school and the others you know, is this mainly a question of extra resources being required
i.e. money ?
or the SD requirements ? - which are a tough issue to resolve

Maybe some MNers can write to e.g. the Times, Guardian and see if they can get an article published detailling their own experience

The Guardian has raised this issue on numerous occasions but the wider population does not care. It will not affect most people. We are a society of 'I am alright, Jacks'. You cannot drive change if pretty much everyone but those tiny few effected are apathetic about an issue. And since out government doesn't care either, nothing will change.

Fascinating article on prevalence @whatnext btw. Though you had to read all the way down to the table at the bottom to pull out that really important statistic that about 3/4 of people testing positive reported no known contact with anyone with Covid. Sometimes I think some scientists live in little bubbles where odds ratios are the answer to the question noone asked! - obviously people with known contact with Covid cases are more likely to test positive, but the finding that really ought to be their headline (that you pulled out, but I only found because you'd done so and I was hunting for it) is the really important one that the large majority of people in May who caught Covid had no idea where from. This was during lockdown when people had limited contact with people they didn't know so is really significant in terms to how to prevent transmission - track and trace wasn't running then, and may help, but it also suggests the asymptotic spreaders may be a big part of the problem - which means either significant social distancing for all has to stay, or much more widespread frequent testing.

@BigChocFrenzy

PatriciaHolm In your DC's special school and the others you know, is this mainly a question of extra resources being required i.e. money ? or the SD requirements ? - which are a tough issue to resolve

Not me, I think you mean @vengeancer!

PatriciaHolm In your DC's special school and the others you know, is this mainly a question of extra resources being required
i.e. money ?or the SD requirements ? - which are a tough issue to resolve

we didn't get a detailed response but only got told that it will be closed due to covid.(unless key worker parents). Simple as that. We were informed via text message.

"3/4 of people testing positive reported no known contact with anyone with Covid"

That is important and deserves a lot more prominance

Masks & other SD seem the only means atm to tackle this

the teachers, therapists etc who children need were at much higher risk and many of them were off sick / just staying home, even before lockdown

Considering you're all about data to prove things BigChoc, can you let me know where you got your data to support your comment that teachers and therapists were 'just staying home, even before lockdown'. Thanks.

My local authority shut all special schools before the official shutting of all schools. This was because all of the children have a learning disability and because of staff shortages. They then re opened them to a very small number of pupils - those who were known to social services and were said to be at risk and those who had 2 key worker parents. The vast majority were not offered a place.

Sorry, vengeancer 💐 That's totally unacceptable

Special schools here (Germany) are required to reopen ft with the others in late August, after the vacation.
So my friend & his wife will be sending in both their sons on the same date,
one to a standard school, the other (autism & LDs) to special school.

Obviously, each school head drew up a detailled plan in consultation with the local education & public health authorities;
they included what extra resources they needed
and this was signed off, mask policy agreed too.

My school has a significant minority with EHCPs. We've done all their reviews this term as normal, and all except one child have been in school. The one who isn't has siblings who are homeschooled anyway, so it was all round easier for him to stay home (they need transport, which wasn't running for the first term of closure anyway). We've been in contact with the family a lot though.

Most children who have EHCPs in mainstream, have academic needs rather than disabilities, so parents considered it safer for them to be at home at the beginning. We had to work quite hard to persuade parents to let their kids come in, and most only went for it after 1st June.

Anyway, kids don't get it or pass it on to anyone...

From the Al-Taqwa school outbreak in Melbourne:

It is believed to have started with a grade six teacher, who is thought to have contracted the virus at a family gathering, and it has spread rapidly to staff and students.

At this stage, 147 cases have been linked to the school.

Figures provided to 7.30 by Victoria's Department of Health show 76 of those cases are students, 28 are staff, 16 are close contacts and 27 remain under investigation.

ohthegoats Not collected usefully in an official report yet afaik,
but many local authorities announced - before lockdown - closures or classes cut because of staff absences
e.g. from 17 March:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/17/schools-across-england-struggle-as-coronavirus-hits-attendance

' Schools across England are struggling to stay open, with some forced to partially or fully close as staff and students stay at home
....
Several schools have announced closures because of staff shortages,
in some cases with only pupils on GCSE and A-levels courses allowed to remain.

But many more school leaders are being forced to consider closures as staff are absent because of self-isolation or caring for vulnerable relatives.
....
Schools in London appear to be hardest hit, with absentee rates for staff running at 20% or more '

We must be aware again this 120k figure is a "reasonable worst case scenario" for which the authorities must prepare

It is NOT a forecast that 120k deaths are expected !

Previous "worst case scenarios" were seized on irresponsibly / ignorantly

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/action-to-stop-winter-covid-19-second-wave-in-uk-must-start-now

The lowest estimate in the modelling is only 1,300 deaths over winter

Thank you @PatriciaHolm it's a shame the data isn't separated by school type/age.

The school I teach at is a PRU and all our pupils have an EHCP. Approx. 70% of ours are back now. Of those that aren't, a couple have medical conditions that require them to shield and others aren't returning yet due to parental choice/anxiety. The non-attending pupils are being visited at home for at least some teaching each week (or online if shielding).

Before the wider opening on 1st June, we continued to be open for longer than the mainstream schools but closed once the school transport service shut. During April and May, pupils were visited at home, taught by our staff at school hubs close to their homes or met in local parks for walks etc. to give parents some respite.

Interesting expert feedback on new mask rules:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-announcement-that-face-coverings-are-to-be-compulsory-in-englands-shops-from-24-july/

My DC with an EHCP was offered a school place at the beginning of lockdown.
However he wasn’t going to be taught, just expected to complete the work set online without any help. Something he wasn’t able to do.
Thus we turned it down.

Forgot to say he’s in mainstream with 1:1 support.

Article by biostatistician comparing and contrasting Covid deaths in USA to flu, war, cardiovascular etc

theconversation.com/how-deadly-is-covid-19-a-biostatistician-explores-the-question-142253