Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

The most vulnerable children have been harmed by policy choices & that’s viewed as acceptable collateral damage because our society attaches no value to them. As mumsnet frequently demonstrates!

^This!

Comparisons Zoe to daily stats or ONS are difficult, because they are measuring different things
However Zoe looks a useful early warning if cases rise again in some areas

covid.joinzoe.com/post/ons-covid-comparison

Thank you all. Long time lurker and first time poster. You are all so brilliant at helping me to get a clearer picture of what’s going on. Without the political subtext of the MSM.

A couple of more positive news items here:

Lab has developed improvements to speed up testing

Masks to help people who need to lip read

@dairyfairies

The most vulnerable children have been harmed by policy choices & that’s viewed as acceptable collateral damage because our society attaches no value to them. As mumsnet frequently demonstrates!

^This!

Schools in the UK should have been reopened much earlier, as in many other European countries, which reopened even before all shops and certainly before restaurants & jollies for adults to enjoy

However, the unfortunate fact is that even though children are at v low risk from COVID,
the teachers, therapists etc who children need were at much higher risk
and many of them were off sick / just staying home, even before lockdown

Official policy was that SEN and vulnerable children should have been allowed in school,
but stats are that only 10% took up places

We need proper data about how many of the other 90% were not in school because places were not there

• or adequate additional provision for their needs was not there -

rather than it being a result of parental choice, as articles have been implying.

Official policy was that SEN and vulnerable children should have been allowed in school, but stats are that only 10% took up places

I think you seriously need to check your sources before you continue to sprout this nonsense about. As several posters with children with SEN pointed out, this was not the case. Rather the opposite. laws making sure that children with SEN get a certain level of support gave been paused. It completely untrue that only 10% 'took up a place'. Most kids with SEN were denied any education even though their families would have wanted to take up the places

10% "Took up a place" includes having the place available;
it does not imply the other 90% chose not to

Anecdata on MN is no substitute for actual statistics
I am asking for statistics about how many were denied a place

As with NT children, some children were not offered a place,
while a % of parents decided it was not in their childrens best interest

I am asking if anyone has statistics on this
because the official policy was that all vulnerable and SEN children should have been offered a place

If the offer was without the necessary extra support in place, the of course it was not useable,
but I would like stats, if any are available

I don’t think any data exists atm as I was also looking for it.

I think though schools weren’t open to all children with SEND in any event, it was limited to children with EHC - so not capturing the many children on SEND registers but without a formal EHC.

I think having actual stats on this may be hard to collate, probably down to differences with it schools as much as anything. What I know about my DC's schools is that those with an EHCP were offered places, however stipulations surrounding social distancing/lack of 1 to 1 support/plans not having to be adhered to/etc meant many didn't go back. These would most likely be put down as a refusal by parent, but it was in large parts seen as effective barring for the children. Those with IEPs or non-planned but on SEN support we're not offered to return. Unsure about otherwise vulnerable children.

I am asking if anyone has statistics on this because the official policy was that all vulnerable and SEN children should have been offered a place

It never was official policy. I have no idea what stuff you have been reading!

Thank you, Bighouse, Ohlook
It looks like that policy was either just good intentions or more for show - empty of content and resources to carry it out

Situtation in at least Germany, Austria & Switzerland is different, because all children with SEN are educated separately in special schools
In Germany, that's 400,000 children

My friend whose elder son has autism and LDs said his special school was open before other schools, as they were given extra resources like PPE,
but that he didn't send him back until his other son's school opened pt - as he then felt it "safe" for both kids
However, just more anecdata !

Vengeancer Several public statements throughout this crisis by senior people in education or child services
e.g. most recently after this tragedy:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jul/13/deaths-special-needs-children-kent-raise-concerns-over-school-closures

"As vulnerable pupils, the Kent children would have been entitled to a school place during lockdown but because of family fears about the risks of Covid-19 they did not attend,
in common with thousands of others across England.

Hammond (the director of integrated children’s services in Kent and Medway) ....

“I do believe that people thought that the vulnerable children would continue to go to school.
We worked really, really hard to get parents to send their children in, but we never got above 10% [of vulnerable children entitled to a school place]...

“All through this pandemic, this whole group of children could and should have been at school.

But it was the severity of message about the danger of the virus that very understandably frightened parents.”

"I am asking for statistics about how many were denied a place"

There won't be any reliable statistics on this.
Firstly children vulnerable through disability were lumped in with children vulnerable for other reasons some of which will include families who don't engage with school at the best of times. I haven't seen any seperate data.

Secondly the process for children with an ehcp was that individual risk assessments which involved the parents should have been done. This largely did not happen. It was decided without consulting parents that children were safer at home based on things like the child has a learning disability ( but ignoring their severe mental health issues). Or the child can't wash their hands properly.
So the child officially wouldn't be denied a place because they were officially safer at home so officially didn't need a place.
Added to that was the abuse parents got for "taking key workers places" or "not putting their child first" from the ignorant if they did send their child in.

There is an undeniable narrative of ignoring or downplaying the costs. Usually from those who have most to gain & have lost least from lockdown.

If people truly consider the lives of those children to be a sad but inevitable & acceptable cost then they should own it. No more mealy-mouthed excuses - covid didn’t kill them, choices were made which caused harm - and no more pretending that it’s all hunky-dorey.

Bigchoc honestly you have absolutely no idea about the reality of navigating the UK education system as a parent of a child with special needs. Children are barred from access at all levels and for any excuse - as if anyone would keep statistics about that! Laughable really.

I very much doubt there are, or ever will be, good stats that enable us to distinguish between how many children didn't attend because the provision was denied completely, or was offered but was inadequate, or was there but not taken up because of parental fear.

This (and it's early versions) has some stats

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak

• "Around 22% of children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) or a social worker were attending an education setting on 18 June, up from 18% on 11 June." and "Around 27% of children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) or a social worker were attending an education setting on 9 July, up from 25% on 2 July."

Torydeathdrug I asked for statistics precisely because I don't know
and because articles like the one I quoted are what those of us without your experience will read

In the absence of other information, that narrative is the one what will prevail

that will prevail !

bigchoc, it was spin all along and never the case. I have a child with complex needs and EHCP who was not allowed in school. I have many friends with similar kids. None of them was allowed in. I actually cannot think of a single child with an EHCP who was able to access an education.

I really don't understand what are you trying to achieve by pedalling this governmental spin when it was bleeding obvious right from the beginning of the lockdown that most of the most vulnerable kids would not be in school.

Do you have a child with and EHCP and have been able to access school? If so, you are one of the very lucky few bit that is not what has happened across the UK.

Yup there was no SEN place for my son with an EHCP until 1 week before half term when we got really pushy. None of the children with EHCPs were offered places despite having expressed an interest. We were actively discouraged from sending our children in. We weren’t frightened to send our son in, we knew as certainly as we could that it was the right place for him.

Around 22% of children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) or a social worker were attending an education setting on 18 June, up from 18% on 11 June."
and
"Around 27% of children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) or a social worker were attending an education setting July, up on 2 July."

my DC's special school (where all kids have an ehcp) had only a handful of children in even though there are 200 on roll. and it has been the same with all other special schools I am aware of. I would take the above figures with a pinch of salt. They might have forgotton to put the comma in 2.7 per cent seems far more realistic.

It is important, because without some statistics, some measure of the situation,
where is the pressure on the authorities to change the situation from September ?

Are there plans to correct what has gone wrong, so that children with SEN can attend school again ? (those who were able to before COVID)