Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

wintertravel Doctors would be unlikely to consider a false positive if they made the diagnosis that their patient had COVID

New daily infections in the UK

Also relevant is that we know that many viruses - including other Coronaviruses - can repeatedly infect the same people
e.g.

J. Infectious Diseases: Direct observation of repeated infections with endemic coronaviruses

https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa392/5868459

"This study provides evidence that re-infections with the same endemic coronavirus are not atypical in a time window shorter than 1 year and that the genetic basis of innate immune response may be a greater determinant of infection severity than immune memory acquired after a previous infection."

Too early to say after only a few months if this is the case for COVID too,
but it would not be astonishing if it is.

The Vox article appears to be about just one individual. I realise that individual cases do have a place in medical literature, but it hardly makes it a new phenomenon.

It seems to me with that if we're scrambling round worldwide for isolated cases of people who've possibly tested positive twice (but may in fact have been false positives one or other time) we're missing the elephant in the room which is that the vast, vast majority of people who've had it once have not caught it again. There's tens of thousands of people in the UK who've had positive tests - and they're generally the ones in the highest risk jobs or in care homes. So if they could catch it again statistically many of them would have done so. That doesn't mean they won't next year or in 10 years time, but it does provide pretty convincing evidence that people who've had it once are immune for a good few months at least.

firefliess The 1st wave fortunately didn't last long enough for many people to catch it twice,

• the antibodies are present for a few months and presumably would normally give protection at least that long. Anyone managing to catch it twice in such a short time would be a real outlier

What we have to watch is what happens over the next 6 months or so,
e.g. local outbreaks and probably some increase in community levels in winter

Will some people catch it a 2nd time - and since only about 7% in the UK caught it the first time, they would be very unlucky sods indeed

I'm certainly not saying that reinfection is a proven danger,
just that we shouldn't classify as irresponsible or clickbait, the few cases reported so far by doctors in responsible positions

We need to reserve judgement until we see what happens over winter - here or in other countries

btw, interesting that Australia has had a recent rise in cases - it's their winter, so low temperatures and lowered immunity systems.

I can't help but feel it's way too early to draw any conclusions about how immunity works with this virus, it's so difficult because we are all desperate for some certainty ☹️

We still don't know enough - and we probably won't until next spring,
i.e. after a year of COVID, it won't be such a "novel" Coronavirus

Until then, we can't rule out anything from reputable sources

If that NYC burough genuinely has 60-70% antibodies, then they would be a good area to watch this winter,
to check if 2nd infections are significant within 6 months, or v rarely happen

Population Density

Generally the next most important factor for a developed country's deaths after age demographics ?

A crude measure, as it doesn't separate % in cities / rural, but gives a rough overview:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Listoffcountriesandddependenciesbyypopulationdensityy_
_
# People / km2_
_
280 UK
34 USA - hence should have low overall deaths / million
124 France
200 Italy
233 Germany
376 Belgium - may help explain their v high deaths ?
135 Denmark
23 Sweden - should have v low deaths indeed

Covid deaths / million:

the UK about 660
the USA about 420
Sweden about 550
Germany 109
Denmark 105_

Comments:_

. USA is imo performing worse than the UK,
because the UK has 8 x the population density
and the US epidemic has been allowed to rocket again - totally irresponsible.

. Sweden without lockdown has 5 x deaths / million of Denmark and Germany - with lockdown - despite their higher pop density

The UK without lockdown might have suffered worse than 5 x its own deaths, because of much higher pop density
¼ million deaths, if the Uk had copied Sweden, doesn't look a wild estimate

. USA has nearly 4 x the deaths / million of Germany, despite Germany having nearly 7 x the population density

. Germany is an anomaly in Europe - probably the effectiveness & high spare capacity of its health & public health systems, plus good decisions by govt
but nowhere near as successful as some E. Asian countries

@BigChocFrenzy

I'm certainly not saying that reinfection is a proven danger, just that we shouldn't classify as irresponsible or clickbait, the few cases reported so far by doctors in responsible positions

We need to reserve judgement until we see what happens over winter - here or in other countries

btw, interesting that Australia has had a recent rise in cases - it's their winter, so low temperatures and lowered immunity systems.

It is possible that if people catch it again they would be asymptomatic, which would be worse, as they could think they are immune and take less precautions, which could make them super spreaders.

Timeofranotherusername Vulnerable children and those with SEN were entitled to go to school throughout lockdown

not correct. My daughter has severe SEN and has an EHCP and was not allowed into school. She is attending a special school where all children have an EHCP. Only key worker children were let in. this has been the case across-the-board, i.e. most children with SEN in the UK were unable to attend school.

"Vulnerable children and those with SEN were entitled to go to school throughout lockdown"

That isn't true. In some areas all special schools shut to all pupils. In others there were too many children needing places so only those with one or in some cases two key worker children were allowed in. Individual risk assessments were supposed to be done but in some cases it was decided that all children with particular conditions shouldn't be in all school without looking at all their needs. Parents were supposed to be involved in the risk assessments but were not. Some children with severe sn were not allowed in school because they couldn't social distance. The whole thing was a shit show. It has been a nightmare for some families and children.

"Vulnerable children and those with SEN were entitled to go to school throughout lockdown"

My colleague is a key worker (nurse) and has an 8 year old son with Autism. He is high functioning though and attends a mainstream school. Although his school was open throughout lockdown and his parents are key workers he was not allowed to attend because of his “needs” (the school’s words).

He really, really struggled to adapt to the change of not being at school and not Jacob his usual routines, especially because his sister was allowed to go to school but he wasn’t. My colleague saw a marked deterioration in his behaviour and mood over the course of the lockdown and the whole family found the whole situation very difficult to manage.

Just place marking as was advised to follow this conversation!

@BigChocFrenzy

whatsnext The author sounds pretty well qualified and experienced:

"D. Clay Ackerly, MD, MSc, is an internal medicine and primary care physician practicing in Washington, DC.
He has served both as a faculty member of Harvard Medical School and as assistant chief medical officer at Massachusetts General Hospital.
He has also held positions in the government and private sector, including the White House, the Food and Drug Administration, and, most recently, as chief medical officer of Privia Health"

Your link is about Italy - I don't see the connection

@BigChocFrenzyApologies if I missed your point, I thought it was the reinfection being worse second time around.

Inevitable (as I’ve stated in previous posts) that as antibodies wane then reinfection likely. Same as all other coronavirus. However, also as I and @wintertravel1980 posted probable much less severe or even asymptomatic.

Also as per my previous post citing South Korean retraction no recognised case of reinfection. Seem to be sample errors picking up bits of old dead virus

@BigChocFrenzy surely there’s no point talking about the overall population density of the US when it varies so wildly between states though - some are virtually empty like Alaska and North Dakota, you cant really compare these to California and Texas etc, and they just bring the overall population density right down and make it meaningless!

Community prevalence of Covid in U.K. in May

Provides a snapshot (not cumulative) of cases. Large number with no known Covid contact.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.10.20150524v1

@QueenofmyPrinces

"Vulnerable children and those with SEN were entitled to go to school throughout lockdown"

My colleague is a key worker (nurse) and has an 8 year old son with Autism. He is high functioning though and attends a mainstream school. Although his school was open throughout lockdown and his parents are key workers he was not allowed to attend because of his “needs” (the school’s words).

He really, really struggled to adapt to the change of not being at school and not Jacob his usual routines, especially because his sister was allowed to go to school but he wasn’t. My colleague saw a marked deterioration in his behaviour and mood over the course of the lockdown and the whole family found the whole situation very difficult to manage.

My friends son has autism and he was not allowed to be in school (mainstream with 1:1 support) because they said he can't maintain social distancing

The UK Government have also "temporarily" amended their normal "absolute duty" to make the provision required in pupil's EHCPs to "best efforts" - so even if students were offered a place, there was no obligation on the school to actually provide the support they needed. So in many cases it would probably have been detrimental to the child to attend, unfortunately.

The prevalence article is very interesting Whats. Average of 0.13% prevalence in May, 69% asymptomatic in the previous 7 days and most likely in the 18-24 age group.

My friends son has autism and he was not allowed to be in school (mainstream with 1:1 support) because they said he can't maintain social distancing
My DD doesn't have a plan, but is under SEN support. She's not in a year that could go back but currently isn't able to because a) I'm clinically vulnerable (but not shielded) and b) she struggles with sitting still. A few friends with children with plans have similarly been unable to have their children in school despite them apparently being open for SEN.

This is probably a really obvious question but I can’t find a way of checking the daily figures for my area on the ONS site? Also I’m part of the Zoe Covid App. They seem to be saying our cases are on the increase but that doesn’t seem to be reflected in the official figures. Which one do you all put your trust in?
Please tell me I don’t need to go back to wiping my shopping 🤣🤣

@Somerset19

This is probably a really obvious question but I can’t find a way of checking the daily figures for my area on the ONS site? Also I’m part of the Zoe Covid App. They seem to be saying our cases are on the increase but that doesn’t seem to be reflected in the official figures. Which one do you all put your trust in? Please tell me I don’t need to go back to wiping my shopping 🤣🤣

Daily figures are not on ONS, they are here - click on the down arrow next to Birmingham to adjust for your area;

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Birmingham

Covid Zoe is a different methodology - they are modelling from reported symptoms. My feeling is that it's an over estimate, but having changed their methodology recently I think it's not a bad guide, used in conjunction with other things.

It’s not just schooling that children with special needs have been denied. My son has lost his speech therapy, occupational therapy & his psychology sessions. That is absolutely standard. The most vulnerable children have been harmed by policy choices & that’s viewed as acceptable collateral damage because our society attaches no value to them. As mumsnet frequently demonstrates!