Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

I was surprised to hear that the US has a much much higher rate of mask use.

It’s mandated in many areas and cases are far, far higher so it doesn’t surprise even if there are some adamantly against others...

Whereas here even the HSE guidance is tepid on the benefits of mask use in situations other than those that can’t avoid close contact... (basically. it’s socially distance, but if you really can’t, then wear a mask/shield). BJ only wore one for a photo op for the first time yesterday, coupled with comments about their benefit, which must has to mean a change in rules in imminent.

.... adamantly against it.

I suspect policy change over the summer and going into the winter.

Yes, around here, suburbia with a v small town centre, there's very, very few wearing masks. I saw one on a child for the first time the other day, not his mum though.

@Derby - I was out for a walk yesterday and passed a few restaurants and a couple of pubs. 2 of the restaurants still closed, the others mostly empty (This was about 9pm on a Friday night) Both pubs looked largely empty indoors, though one has about 20 youngsters outside. So I think most people are still pretty cautious.

The article that was published this week with the stats from the contact tracing did mention that people had been identifying more contacts on average in the last week though, which is concerning.

Re higher rates in the US. Would either air-conditioning or singing in church explain their much higher rates in the south? Rates are much higher than here, or even than the northern US states. They are a much more church-going lot. And their churches aren't huge mostly-empty old buildings like ours are - they're modern, smaller and much more crowded.

I do not think 35% of mask usage is "pathetically low".

It is clear masks are (were) needed in public transport. I am guessing that a lot of Londoners infected in early March caught COVID on tube, trains or DLR. Transport remained crowded up until Boris's announcements that people should work from home if they could (which happened around March 13). If the infection rate at that time was 1 in 40, there might have been an infected person in every single carriage.

I am not convinced masks in shops where people only walk briefly past one another will make a meaningful difference to infection rates. If masks do become mandatory, it will be a public gesture / reminder to take COVID seriously.

I'm tempted to post the picture from this page on our local Facebook page www.maskssavelives.org/ - although I think China require masks dont they (?) and we all know there are many reasons for international differences. Mask wearing around here probably doesnt reach 10%.

Personally I wear something over my face in shops, I see it as good manners now.

The American south - yes to church services spreading it but also more likely to be republican and republicans less likely to take the virus seriously.

Humidity and poorly / unfiltered air con too ?

I used to live in Japan where it was an unwritten rule that If you have any kind of cough or cold, your wear a mask. No argument. So there’s always been wide availability and acceptance. Persuading everyone to wear one every time they go out and has been fairly straightforward.
Surprise surprise they haven’t quite beaten it but case and death rates In Japan remain far below European countries.

Interesting tweet from Robert peston this morning. It literally does not add up

Japan looks an excellent example of how to live with COVID

• taking sensible precautions, but then getting on with (most) life,

which is essential if we have to wait another year or two for a vaccine and / or much more effective treatments

Masks are important for lowering the danger from the "superspreaders",
the 10% who shed massively in a usually short period, but are responsible for 80-90% of infection spread

People being infectious before symptoms - and to a lesser extent without noticeable symptoms - makes masks more important for infection control than for other viruses

I hope we copy Japan's and that wearing masks when sniffly become a permanent change, basic good manners,
thinking of how exasperating it is when coughing & sneezing colleagues keep passing viruses around;
snotty buggers on public transport & shops too

Yes @BigChocFrenzy I'm not sure if the importance of superspreaders is being overlooked, eg in the reducing SD rule by 50% (2-1m). But I know there's not much data about them.

When the guidance says things like something is 'very unlikely to present a risk', does it take suoerspreaders into account? Do we have any idea how common superspreaders are?

Frazzled We can check on

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

which shows plausible cases & deaths - different from that table

Looks like those 480 cases were copied over somehow from 10 July

• which does indeed have 480 for England on that date.

For 8 June it was 606
and for 9 June, it should be 617

Strawberry Scientists have learned that COVID has a low "K" (dispersion factor), much lower than e.g. flu

So most infected people spread to noone else, or at most one person,
while a few people can spread to several, sometimes dozens or more.

Hence the danger of large events indoors, crowded indoor workplaces,
or certain types of large events outdoors - maybe in cold weather - with lots of shouting, singing, hugging
e.g. carnivals in Germany, where there are at most a few areas with covered roof but open sides

We only really know that superspreaders likely spread 80-90% of infections
but not how the % of potnetial superspreaders in the general population

It seems that some people shed more virus than others, even accounting for different severity of illness then or later, if pre-symptomatic,
but that they only do so within a certain time window, which is likely also be individual

I've worn a mask once so far
because I've avoided crowded places
and will continue to do so.

.

CMMID: Reconstructing the global dynamics of unreported COVID-19 cases and infections

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/Under-Reporting.html

Conclusions:
We found substantial under-ascertainment of symptomatic cases, particularly at the peak of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in many countries.

Reported case counts will therefore likely underestimate the rate of outbreak growth initially
and underestimate the decline in the later stages of an epidemic.

Although there was considerable under-reporting in many locations, our estimates were consistent with emerging serological data,
suggesting that the proportion of each country’s population infected with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide is generally low.

Thank you for the link and advice on how to get local data from the covid staging document. Could you help me with how to get the age profile of the reported cases as my phone just shows dots and I don’t seem to be able to read it.

"Interestingly, 25% already tested positive for antibodies at the start of the study - March 26."

Anecdotally - I live in a city outside of London.
My friend was ill the last few days of Feb, she had a routine hospital procedure a few days later (end of Feb) which kept her at home afterwards for a few weeks
She lives with her mother who was told to shield and so was also at home during this period , first looking after my friend as she recovered from the procedure and then as a shielding person

Neither of them left the house for 14 weeks except to go in their garden.

Both are positive for antibodies and friend is certain that the sickness/breathlessness/cough she had in late Feb was covid

At the time we officially had no cases locally and she had not travelled to Italy etc.

Is there any stronger evidence now for when community transmission began in earnest in this country?

any sign of the dashboard - original or beta - being updated yet today?

Nope, still not updated

This development looks very promising, to make quick & accurate tests feasible for e.g. home & school:

Department of Health and Social Care@DHSCgovuk

‪*@SouthamptonCC‬ and ‪*@UniSouthampton‬ are trialling a new saliva test for coronavirus that could make testing even easier and more accessible.

Watch Professor Keith Godfrey explain more about this non-invasive at home testing method

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1281634287960424448

Figures high today - 148 deaths, 820 new cases.

Could be a phasing issue, or may reflect historical cases, but last week was 67 / 624.

@cantkeepawayforever yes, it could be some historical cases/delayed reporting. Let's hope so.