Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Cases look to be 'filling in' the last couple of days to bring them to 500+.

They don't seem to do the same 'date of death' graph to show newly reported deaths, though.

Ah, so hopefully, it's 'historical' cases as well as new ones and so it's not quite as bad as it looks.

I can't find anything on twitter to say they are historic, but it is sticking out massively.

It is whether it is disproportionately historical - or whether in fact the good figures we have seen this week have been a data illusion....

7 day rolling average will hopefully show that in a few days' time.

Anyone else’s just freeze when you change it from UK to a town? 🤦‍♀️😣

They must have "found" some data somewhere. Let's see what tommorow brings.

This development looks very promising, to make quick & accurate tests feasible for e.g. home & school

Thanks for this, fingers crossed the saliva test can be rolled out in the relatively near future. I've been worried how my DCs, particularly my 7 year old, will cope with the more invasive nasal swab testing if it has to be a regular thing for school when they're back full time.

I hope data collection methodology has improved since this chaos:

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-inside-story-of-how-uks-chaotic-testing-regime-broke-all-the-rules-12022566

In their effort to release rapid data to show the increase in testing capacity,
officials from Public Health England (PHE) and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC)
"hand-cranked" the numbers to ensure a constant stream of rising test numbers were available for each day's press conference
......
An internal audit later confirmed that some of those figures simply didn't add up.
< these will be some of the "historical corrections" >
.....
Even as Health Secretary Matt Hancock struggled to get the number of tests carried out up to 100,000 a day by the end of April,
the collection of those testing statistics was still so primitive that they were being compiled with pen and paper

Sky News has uncovered hand-written tables of testing data, allegedly from mid-May,
which show national testing figures for different parts of the operation.

I thought that was a shockingly high figure too - fingers crossed it doesn’t look that way over 7 day average

Hospital deaths were 39 (compared to 47 last sat) and 32 of these were in last 10 days. The rest were community ones. Rolling average for hospital deaths still falling but all settings rose after falling a reasonable bit yesterday. Cases have risen a little yesterday. As per usual though, a single day shouldn't be taken in isolation (esp as we don't have date of death for non hospital deaths)

That should be rolling averages for cases have risen a little

Herefordshire is .. interesting. 56 new cases.

The staging website shows both deaths and cases by actual day of death/test for England; see attached. Rolling averages still all trending down (haven't added in yesterday as way too low as yet)

I don't really understand all this but I think it means there is historical data and it would have been in the 500s without?

Link - www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

@hayfeverhellish my reading of that is that it is just talking about tests carried out and not the positive results? Hope I’m wrong though, it was a bit depressing to see the figures today

From today's data file

9th July - 332 cases added

8th July - 237 cases added

7th July - 107 cases added

6th July - 53 cases added

Despite the overall number the majority of LAs are either moving down in terms of case numbers, or plateauing at really low numbers (1-3 cases per week).

Warmish spots look to be:

Pendle : 45 cases so far added for this week; with 17 showing on 6th July; and 19 on 7th . Rate per 100,000 since Monday 48.9. Quite possibly a couple of very localised outbreaks given bulk of cases concentrated on 2 days.

Hereford, unitary county - 62 cases so far this week; 32.2 per 100,000 people. 56 recorded on 9th July - again maybe a limited number of specific locations. Cases in the county for the previous three weeks were 4, 3, and 4.

Beyond that there are some upward moves for the current week, as compared with total cases for the full previous week (w/e 5th July), so as this current week is not yet complete a watching brief, but in the context of rates per 100,000 being pretty low still.

Braintree 3, 6, 5 over previous three complete week, 19 so far this week; but 19 still only equates to 12.5 per 100,000; 18 of those cases recorded 8th July again suggesting perhaps specific location(s) rather than scattered across the council area.

Salford and Calderdale both up slightly on last week, but again at 12.7 and 9.7 cases per 100,000 so probably again not a great cause for concern.

Blackburn pretty much flat lining - 49-36-44 cases in last three complete week, 40 so far this week, so potentially will go higher once full week confirmed. Current week rate per 100,000 26.7

and in homage to Sky et al *Tower Hamlets^, doubling of case numbers ; has run at 9, then 4, then 9, this week so far 17 but, that final figure is still only 5.1 cases per 100,000 people.

All the previous recent high number LAs - Leicester, Bradford, Rochdale, Sheffield etc look to be heading down, some with a faster rate of case decline than others but all look to be going in the right direction.

I think that is about the 'number of tests', not the 'number of cases'?

@hayfeverhellish

I don't really understand all this but I think it means there is historical data and it would have been in the 500s without?

My understanding is that they've only added the historic data to the cumulative figures not the daily total. However sounds like they suspect some double counting of pillar 2 which might be causing the higher figure but this will be corrected next week once they get confirmation. So the higher cases today might be a blip. I could well be wrong though. Insomnia last night means I running on caffeine.

Actually I think cant is right and it's more about tests than postive cases

@cantkeepawayforever

I think that is about the 'number of tests', not the 'number of cases'?

Yes - I don't think those amendments are about cases, just tests.

As my graph shows (and boys3 data) the cases are spread over the last few days. Average is coming down though last few days will be subject to future amendments.

At present, I can't see anything particularly concerning, though I would like to know what's going on in Herefordshire. TBH at this point it could be a local outbreak but it could also be data problem related.

806 of the recorded increase in the cumulative case number occur in England. 759 of these for confirmed case specimen dates between 4th and 9th July. Just 30 cases in England added so far for 10th July specimen date so although we would expect to see that number substantially increase over the coming days, that headline 800 plus number has only marginal relationship to what may have actually happened yesterday.

This graph shows the cases per 100,000 for the last 5 days - low to high. Based on the English cases with a confirmed local authority location cases per 100,000 is 3.55 for those five days.

The graph shows that around 75% of LA's have a rate lower than that for the past five days - with the caveat more cases will be confirmed for this period over the days ahead, however the distribution - below / above the all England line probably won't change that much.

and one for actual case numbers

If the bulk of today's announced cases have come from 4-9 July it's a little bit early for them to be cases picked up after the latest relaxation of lockdown really isn't it (4th July)? Given an average 5 day incubation period and day or two to get a test. Which is good, so hopefully just a blip target than start of upward trend