36 areas in UK at risk for lockdown ‘within days’ - are you in one?

[Lumene]

Really need to be able to access local data on risks like this instead of finding out through news outlets:

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bradford-and-london-boroughs-among-36-at-risk-areas-that-could-be-just-days-away-from-local-lockdowns-12018594

Not happy at all, why is govt not being transparent with data?

The London boroughs on that list represent almost half of London. With the amount if movement around London, locking down some but not all of London would make no sense.

If I didn't know better I would think this was a clever ploy to get us all to stay in much more, and slow down on the partying front and take it easy (as if!) Nothing like a potential hellish lockdown to try and shunt us into line. However it will remain the case that those that broke the rules before will continue to do so, those that followed them to the letter will still be careful.

Not happy at all, why is govt not being transparent with data?

Do you really need to ask?

None of this government is ethically or intellectually up to the task of keeping this country safe.

And they just don't care.

I saw a statement on Wiltshire that said something like their 25% increase is from 4 cases to 5

Yes I am in Gloucestershire. According to the statistics sky news and bbc has been presenting over the past few weeks we have had something like 4 cases. 4 cases!! It doesnt make sense to me.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

If anyone wants evidence that the Mail &c are stirring up fear for their own ends, based on no facts at all, then here it is.

Makes a change from them stirring up hate I suppose. They really are festering boil on the arse of our society.

Yes, my borough is on the list and cases have gone from zero to 2 and we have the lowest level of infections per 100,000 overall of any London borough. So it's clearly mathematical nonsense, looking at percentage increases from tiny bases.

Also live in a county on the list. One case last week, 3 more on Monday, 5 more yesterday. I assume these are just Pillar 1 numbers. Pillar 2 can be assumed to be much higher. Despite the seemingly low numbers, the problem is that the trend is clear and very worrying with the upcoming relaxation of lockdown further at the weekend. Cases can increase very quickly, exponentially, as we saw in March before total lockdown.

Hammersmith & Fulham, Chelsea and Richmond upon Thames would be predominately white and affluent boroughs in London. I'm in a borough with a relatively high BAME population, so that doesn't seem to be a factor in London at any rate?

That’s 36 areas in England, not uk.

Wiltshire had a lot of deaths in one care home. Locking down wouldn't make any difference.

It is also worth comparing the situation to February/March before lockdown. I remember my county (on this current list) being reported to have 7 cases a couple of weeks before lockdown, but that must have been very underreported without proper testing being available for all. Nevertheless, within a couple of weeks there were deaths in double/triple figures. It is also worth thinking ahead to September when all children are expected back in school. The levels may well be back the same as pre-lockdown by then or shortly afterwards in many areas.

Yep, I'm in Derbyshire. Not sure how it would work though, would the whole county be closed or just the city?

I am in one of those areas too. That's also part of a bigger area where the R rathe is one of the lowest in the country (R=0.8) which doesn't make sense.

And yes there is the whole tier 1 and tier 2 stuff. But surely that should be available to LA and the government should be transparent about it??

But the media aren't basing this on Pillar 2 data, only on Pillar 1, which doesn't tell us anything. We can't extrapolate from 2 cases tested in hospital to anything really.

This is why you should never take any notice of the media. The blow everything up and people believe it and use it as a stick to beat the government with. You see it all the time on here

I'm confused with the mix of towns/cities vs entire counties. How can you possibly compare a city like York against a county like Suffolk?!

I don't think it would take very much for a handful of cases to become a very big problem - especially in densely populated areas. I have no idea how they police the lockdowns though, or how they will work region by region. I am worried we have more infections after so many months without a single one. We haven't even opened anything much here, everything opens on Saturday.

So yes this is not a good turn of events at all.

The places more likely to face it aren't actually on the media list.

For example, Bedford had a 10% fall in cases last week (but number far higher than those silly ones cited above, so went from 50 something to 50 something) but that hides the fact that it was the largest Pillar 1 stats in the country for weeks on end. Apparently when you add in Pillar 2, Leicester was streets ahead.

Whether we deserve this info or not is moot : but what seems to be definitely true is that mayors and local leaders are not getting timely, granular, postcode related info.

@pigeon999 is right - low numbers now can very quickly become high numbers within a matter of weeks. I am also worried that the government has been speaking about the possibility of local lockdowns for weeks but Leicester has shown that actually there was no legal process in place for this. The situation there took several weeks to be cracked down on and required the support of a reluctant mayor. In terms of where infections are getting picked up, unfortunately a recent outpatient appointment I went to would suggest to me that many infections will be picked up in hospital as the promised precaution of fulltime masking wearing by staff is uncomfortable, impractical and not adhered to, and no-one was making patients put back on masks that they cba to keep on.

Yes or on fringes. Not sure if we will be caught or not

Guardian did an article trying to explain all this yesterday which I can't find atm but will have a look.

They've included some very low risk areas to be sensationalist, or they simply don't understand the figures. In either case it's irresponsible and incorrect journalism.

A PHE 'deep dive' into spikes apparently takes 3 weeks!!

@SqidgeBum

Yes I am in Gloucestershire. According to the statistics sky news and bbc has been presenting over the past few weeks we have had something like 4 cases. 4 cases!! It doesnt make sense to me.

Gloucestershire has 0.6 cases per 100,00 population, that's both pillar 1 and pillar 2.

Wiki tells me the population of Gloucestershire is 916202, which means you have 5.5 active cases.

Seeing as half a case is clearly impossible, I would assume for safety that there are 6 cases in your county, for both pillar 1 and pillar 2, reported this week up to 18th June. It can be up to two weeks in arrears, I think as the surveillance report is published with a delay